After months of war with Israel, Lebanon watches fall of Syrian regime with cautious hope

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For decades the Assad regime maintained a firm grip on Lebanese affairs, occupying the country from 1976 until 2005 and infiltrating almost all facets of life. For many years, top jobs in Lebanon would only go to allies of Damascus and opponents risked assassination.

While the influence of Damascus lessened after mass protests in 2005 over its alleged involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafic Hariri, the role of Syria never went away. Neither did the backing for the Assad regime from Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah during Syria's civil war.

On the other side, Lebanon's Sunni community was supportive of the Syrian rebels who have since toppled the Assad regime.

“I think Assad's fall is the most important event that happened in the Middle East and surely it is the end of the [Iranian] Ayatollah's reign,” Moustafa Allouche, the former deputy leader of the Future Movement, which was founded by Mr Hariri, told The National.

The Future Movement was a Sunni-led party led by Mr Hariri's son Saad that was at odds with Hezbollah until it was dissolved in 2022.

Asked if the fall of the Assad regime was a positive for Lebanon, Dr Allouche said: “Sure. But what is still left hanging is how Hezbollah will act in the coming few weeks and what kind of government we will see in Syria.

“We are hopeful that a major kind of evil in our region is gone,” added Dr Allouche, a surgeon and former MP in Lebanon's second city of Tripoli.

Hezbollah, much weakened from its conflict with Israel but still a major force in Lebanon, has yet to react to the fall of Mr Al Assad.

“To a free Syria, to the new East,” Walid Joumblatt, a leader of Lebanon's Druze community whose father Kamal was assassinated in a plot believed to have involved Syria, tweeted shortly after the downfall of the regime.

Damascus is also accused of involvement in the assassination of Bachir Gemayel, the most powerful Christian commander in the first half of the Lebanese civil war who was killed days after being elected president in 1982.

Mr Gemayel's son Nadim, a member of parliament for Lebanon's Kataeb party, which is a staunch critic of Syria and Hezbollah, told The National that “now the real work begins”.

“We were on the right side of history and we shall continue our fight for a free and sovereign Lebanon,” he said.

Michel Moawad, an MP whose father was president for 18 days before he was killed in an assassination also blamed on Syria, said his father had been “denied justice on Earth for 35 years”.

Syria invaded Lebanon in 1976 in the early years of the Lebanese civil war. It occupied the country and wielded significant military and political sway for about 30 years before being ousted during the Cedar Revolution in 2005.

Nabih Berri, a Speaker of the Lebanese parliament who was seen as one of the closest allies of the Syrian government, said Mr Al Assad's fall would not have any negative effect on his country. He said Lebanon would have a new president on January 9 when parliament finally convenes after an 18-month absence to elect a new head of state.

Others were focused on Mr Al Assad being held accountable for his alleged crimes.

“The terror his regime inflicted upon the Syrians and the Lebanese is until now without any retribution since Bashar is not in jail and is not under trial for crimes against humanity,” said Dr Allouche. “We have to be watchful of what emerges next in Syria and Lebanon to judge whether the situation will change for a better future.”