Syria rebel offensive: what might happen next?


Lizzie Porter
  • English
  • Arabic

In the space of a week, anti-government Syrian rebels have swept through north and western Syria, facing little resistance from forces loyal to President Bashar Al Assad.

In a multipronged operation, a coalition of rebels led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a former Al Qaeda affiliate, have taken the key city of Aleppo, Syria’s industrial heart. They are now approaching the north of Hama, another strategic and significant urban centre on the motorway between the capital Damascus and Aleppo. Rebels directly backed by Turkey, known as the Syrian National Army, have pushed east and retaken areas previously held by Kurdish militias.

They launched the operations, Syrian opposition officials told The National, after the past year saw political negotiations between Syria, Turkey, and Damascus allies Russia and Iran reached a dead end, and Assad forces resumed bombing campaigns on rebel-held areas.

The offensive is the biggest challenge to Mr Al Assad since the 2011 uprisings against his rule, which were met with brutal crackdowns and eventually spiralled into civil war. His forces, in the past propped up and sustained by a panoply of Iran-backed militant groups from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, melted away over the past week, unable or unwilling to put up a fight.

The complex situation in northern Syria as of December 2, 2024. Aneesh Grigary / The National
The complex situation in northern Syria as of December 2, 2024. Aneesh Grigary / The National

Key questions remain about what happens next. In less than a week, rebels have doubled territory under their control, according to Charles Lister, head of the Syria programme at the Washington DC-based Middle East Institute. One key factor to follow will be their ability to govern and provide services in the areas they have taken.

Opposition forces have previously shown their ability to set up governance structures in areas under their control, by working with international humanitarian agencies and carrying out trade across the border with Turkey.

Their capacity also depends on the multitude of rebel groups maintaining some sort of cohesion and not turning against each other. Tension has risen between the so-called Syrian National Army, a coalition of Turkish-backed groups, and Hayat Tahrir, also known as HTS, over control of certain key areas they have taken from Assad forces, and to date it remains unclear how they will divvy up territory between them.

Aymen Al Asmi, spokesman for the Syrian opposition delegation at political talks over Syria in the Kazakh capital Astana, said that low-level tension was to be expected, and the opposition’s overall ability to govern should not be measured on some infighting between military factions. Their ability to minimise internal fractures depends on support from the international community, he said.

“The military guys are always more stubborn. The only guarantee is support to the political entities by the international community – the EU, the UK, the USA – to support the opposition so they can control these areas – materially and politically,” he told The National. “The only solution now is to strengthen the political bodies, so that the military bodies are subject to them, and not the opposite.”

But limited resources and the fact that Hayat Tahrir is designated as a US-designated terrorist organisation may hamper their ability to rule.

“I think they are going to need massive external support, and I think that will be contingent on making the administration in these areas – not HTS and not HTS-controlled, in order to avoid the terrorist designation being an obstacle towards external support coming into these areas,” Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group think tank, told The National.

Rebels, many of whom are Sunni Islamists, have so far tried to send assurances to Syria’s different communities and sects that their ways of life will be protected.

Aleppo’s 25,000 Christians have started to decorate their neighbourhoods with Christmas trees for upcoming festivities, and following initial fear, religious minorities quickly re-emerged into public life, the city's lead bishop told reporters yesterday.

But the proof will be in the pudding, Ms Khalifa added.

“I think they [the rebels] fully understand the importance of following through on these promises, whether or not they will is yet to be seen. It's going to be tested in the next weeks and months, if they manage to hold ground.”

Rebels are now attempting to take the city of Hama, and have taken villages to the north of the city, without reaching the urban centre.

They have been unable to advance on the city as quickly as they did in Aleppo, where under-resourced and demotivated Syrian army fighters, lacking significant Iran-backed support, melted away.

“The timing of the advance into the city of Hama or elsewhere is subject to the plans of the military operations management, as there are priorities imposed by the reality of the battle,” Col Hassan Abdul Ghani, a rebel commander, told The National.

But more counter-attacks by pro-government forces may complicate that. Mr Al Assad appointed Gen Suhail Hassan, a former commander of the elite Tiger Forces, as the overall commander of the northern Hama front in an attempt to fend off the rebel offensive.

Abu Mohammed Al Jawlani, leader of Hayat Tahrir, has also said that the offensive will continue until rebels reach “the heart of Damascus”. Their ability to take the capital is unproven and unclear: over more than a decade of conflict, Assad has held the city, despite heavy fighting and displacement in its outskirts.

While Russia is likely loath to engage as fully as it has in the past in Syria, it has begun air strikes on rebel-held areas in recent days, in some cases killing civilians at medical centres. Should those attacks escalate, as civilians in Aleppo and Idlib fear, the rebels may find it harder to progress further, including to the capital Damascus, hold territory it has already taken, or contain a humanitarian disaster. More than 50,000 people have been displaced by the multifront fighting, according to the UN.

A woman mourns outside a hospital after an air strike killed several people including children, in Maarat Misreen, north of Idlib. AP
A woman mourns outside a hospital after an air strike killed several people including children, in Maarat Misreen, north of Idlib. AP

Any further advance on Kurdish-held areas in the north-east by Turkey-backed rebels will likely hinge on moves by US president-elect Donald Trump when he takes office in January.

If Mr Trump pulls US support for Kurdish groups across northern Syria, as he has previously threatened to do, their ability to operate and fend off rebel advances will be severely hindered. The Turkish-backed opposition welcomes Kurds as part of Syria, according to Ahmed Touma, head of the Syrian opposition's delegation to the Astana talks. But it clashes with them over what they see as separatist aims directed by the PKK leadership in the mountains of northern Iraq.

“As for the other areas under the control of the SDF, currently, we are waiting for President Trump to take power,” Mr Touma told The National, referring to the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, who control most of north-eastern Syria. “I think negotiations will be suggested, they may be difficult negotiations, and if they do not come to fruition, then there is a path ahead of us to solve the issues.”

A small chance to resume a diplomatic path out of the current escalation may come in the form of renewed talks between Russia, Turkey and Iran later this week in the Qatari capital Doha, according to a Syrian and a Turkish official briefed on the developments.

Rebels have extended their territorial reach so far that it is unclear if Mr Assad and his allies would be willing to accept a new series of de-escalation measures along the current lines.

“What's important is that they agree to a ceasefire and freeze the lines that they are holding now,” Omer Onhon, Turkey’s last ambassador to Syria before the two countries cut ties in 2012, told The National. “I’m assuming that this could be a best scenario.”

The UN and western powers including the UK have called for a de-escalation to contain the violence and prevent more bloodshed in Syria, where hundreds of thousands of people have been killed, tens of thousands more have gone missing, and over half the population are displaced in the civil war.

But it remains unclear if any political track will be enough to contain the current escalation.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

Various Artists 
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
​​​​​​​

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20pillars%20of%20the%20Dubai%20Metaverse%20Strategy
%3Cp%3EEncourage%20innovation%20in%20the%20metaverse%20field%20and%20boost%20economic%20contribution%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20outstanding%20talents%20through%20education%20and%20training%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20applications%20and%20the%20way%20they%20are%20used%20in%20Dubai's%20government%20institutions%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAdopt%2C%20expand%20and%20promote%20secure%20platforms%20globally%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20the%20infrastructure%20and%20regulations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Signs%20of%20%20%20%20%20%20%20heat%20stroke
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20loss%20of%20sodium%20chloride%20in%20our%20sweat%20can%20lead%20to%20confusion%20and%20an%20altered%20mental%20status%20and%20slurred%20speech%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBody%20temperature%20above%2039%C2%B0C%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHot%2C%20dry%20and%20red%20or%20damp%20skin%20can%20indicate%20heatstroke%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EA%20faster%20pulse%20than%20usual%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDizziness%2C%20nausea%20and%20headaches%20are%20also%20signs%20of%20overheating%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIn%20extreme%20cases%2C%20victims%20can%20lose%20consciousness%20and%20require%20immediate%20medical%20attention%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
The Specs:

The Specs:

Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Power: 444bhp

Torque: 600Nm

Price: AED 356,580 incl VAT

On sale: now.

Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now

There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:

1. Rising US interest rates

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.

Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”

At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.

2. Stronger dollar

High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.” 

3. Global trade war

Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”

4. Eurozone uncertainty

Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”

The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”

THREE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Types of bank fraud

1) Phishing

Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.

2) Smishing

The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.

3) Vishing

The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.

4) SIM swap

Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.

5) Identity theft

Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.

6) Prize scams

Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.

MATCH INFO

Liverpool 0

Stoke City 0

Man of the Match: Erik Pieters (Stoke)

Updated: December 05, 2024, 5:48 AM`