Syria's rebel offensive fuelled by diplomatic dead end, senior opposition figures say

Syrian rebels launched a lightning offensive after pressure by Damascus ally Russia was unable to convince President Bashar Al Assad to engage in dialogue for a political solution to the conflict, including with key external players such as Turkey, two senior Syrian opposition officials told The National.

“The Russians made a great effort with the Syrian regime in convincing it to come to an understanding with Turkey, because the Russians' conviction was that great dangers will surround the Syrian regime, unless it engages seriously in the political process,” said Ahmed Touma, head of the opposition delegation to several rounds of Syria negotiations that have taken place between Russia, Iran and Turkey in the Kazakh capital Astana since 2017.

Russia, throwing resources into the conflict in Ukraine, has been more open to a political dialogue to solve the conflict and a suggestion to return to UN-backed political transition process. But Moscow's officials have so far been unwilling or unable to spark real momentum towards political transition, a second senior Syrian opposition official said.

Iran, Mr Assad's other key ally, has been unwilling to engage in a political process that would change the status quo in Syria, where it has built up networks of tens of thousands of militia fighters, some from Afghanistan and Pakistan, opposition officials involved in negotiations said.

“From what we know, and from what we noticed at the negotiating table, is that the Russians are more open to talking,” Ayman Al Asmi, spokesman for the Syrian opposition delegation at the Astana talks, told The National. “To a certain extent, they were open to talking and sort of accepted this kind of transition.

“I think this is because the Russians understand the reality on the ground in Syria and the international political situation. It's not that the Iranians don't understand but they always go for escalation.”

Mr Al Assad is facing one of his biggest challenges to power since the start of the uprising against his rule in 2011, which was met with brutal crackdowns and eventually spiralled into civil war.

Last week, in fewer than three days, a coalition of Syrian rebels including the former Al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, took the city of Aleppo, which had been under government control since 2016. Having seized weapons and military bases from pro-government forces, they are vowing to capitalise on their perhaps unexpected gains by pushing south towards Damascus. Their ability to do that is so far unproven.

A combination of attacks on civilian areas by government forces over the past year and the lack of meaningful engagement with the political negotiations prompted rebels to mount their offensive, opposition officials and analysts said.

Mr Touma, a former president of the Syrian opposition government in northern Aleppo, said the move to mount a military offensive was, “a joint decision by the opposition, altogether, not just HTS [Hayat Tahrir] only, and all the Syrian military opposition and rebels, with political backing”, following an increase in pro-government attacks on civilian areas and no movement on a political solution.

Talks that began in 2017 between Russia, Turkey and Iran in Astana laid out so-called “de-escalation zones” in north-western Syria and resulted in the division of territory between fighting factions to contain the conflict.

In 2020 it achieved a fragile ceasefire that aimed to lay the ground for a political transition, partly by encouraging Mr Al Assad to talk directly to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, despite Iranian opposition.

“All these ambitions fell on deaf ears and we believe that in addition to Al Assad’s stubbornness, the Iranians were directly provoking the Syrian regime – they provoked the Syrian regime into not accepting any political engagement or solution,” Mr Touma said.

“Two weeks ago, we were in Astana and I personally urged the Russian delegation to put strong pressure on the Syrian regime to return to the negotiating table and accept a political transition.”

The Russians, Mr Al Asmi said, understand that without significant support by Iran-backed militants on the ground, an air campaign will not lead to the same kind of territorial gains for the Syrian government as in the past. With Iran-backed forces' ability to move around Syria curbed by intensified Israeli strikes over the past year, the idea of deploying large-scale air power to Syria makes less sense.

“Mostly, Russia has the planes and the Iran-backed militias are on the ground,” he said. “Russia is now estimating that if there is a battle on the ground, it will be Al Assad and the Iranian militias.”

Others involved in the political process also saw little movement from Mr Al Assad on political negotiations before the start of the current rebel assault. Earlier this year, Mr Erdogan reached out to Mr Assad to start a normalisation process but those efforts have born little fruit so far.

“We never felt like Damascus genuinely showed any interest in any kind of result-oriented engagement with us,” a Turkish government official told The National. “In an interview, [Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan] Fidan had said that ‘the regime never talks to us as itself. They always use the talking points of others.’”

A pro-Syrian government official did not respond to a request by The National for comment.

Turkey has not publicly expressed support for the rebel offensive and will be worried about any escalation in violence that could force more displaced people across its border.

It directly backs the rebels taking back territory held by Kurdish militias, which it sees as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Ankara blames the separatist group for years of fatal attacks on its soil, including some planned and launched from Syria.

Analysts also see Russian leverage over Mr Al Assad – and its willingness to use it – to push for a political solution as key. Presidents Putin and Erdogan met on the sidelines of a conference in Russia in October, in which they discussed Syria. But little movement after that led to the current escalation.

“I think Russia knows that a political solution is needed and they are the only ones needed to have real influence on Al Assad,” Omer Onhon, Turkey’s last ambassador to Syria before the countries broke off diplomatic relations in 2012, told The National.

“So if they decide to pressure Assad to come to a negotiation table, then the chances of negotiation would be much higher. Whether Russia is willing to do that or not is another story.”

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