Syria insurgency: Who are the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham rebels trying to topple Assad?

Live updates: Follow the latest on the Syrian rebel advance

Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham are closing in on the central city of Homs and have Damascus in their sights, posing a significant challenge to President Bashar Al Assad's government.

Their offensive, which has altered the trajectory of Syria's 13-year civil war, is in its second week. Already the main cities of Hama and Aleppo have fallen to Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a former affiliate of Al Qaeda listed as a foreign terrorist organisation by the US in May 2014. Turkish proxies combined under a formation called the Syrian National Army are also taking part.

The rebel advance has altered lines of control in Syria agreed to by international powers over the past decade. It has strengthened the position of Ankara compared with Russia, Iran and the US, each of which have their own zones of control, manned by proxy militias.

Anti-government fighters in Aleppo after their surprise attack on the Syrian city. AFP

Who is leading the rebel offensive?

The rebels are being led by Hayat Tahrir. It is mainly made up of groups from former jihadist organisation Jabhat Al Nusra, which was linked to Al Qaeda. It broke those ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 and rebranded itself as Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, after a purge undertaken by the group's leader Ahmad Al Shara. He is now using his real name, instead of his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed Al Jolani, as part of an effort to project moderation.

Hayat Tahrir Al Sham chief Abu Muhammad Al Jolani in 2024. AFP

The UN and countries including Russia and Turkey have long designated Hayat Tahrir as a terrorist organisation. Al Jolani previously participated in an Iraqi insurgency against the US as a member of a group that eventually became ISIS. He then led the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda in 2011, in the early years of the civil war.

Hayat Tahrir is considered to have played a significant role in the Syrian civil war, and there are doubts over whether it has shed its Al Qaeda past and extreme ideologies.

Who are the other players?

The rebel groups include factions supported by different regional and local powers, making Syria one of the most complex front lines in the Middle East.

Another battle front elsewhere in the country is between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed group dominated by the People's Defence Units (YPG) and militiamen linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a group that has waged a decades-long insurgency in Turkey.

The SDF played a major role on the ground in the US-led war against ISIS in north-eastern Syria, where Washington has about 900 troops.

Who supports the Syrian government?

Russia has been a staunch supporter of Mr Al Assad and has launched air strikes against rebel forces during the civil war. Russian warplanes have been critical for the Syrian army and its pro-Iranian militias in winning back territory. Mr Al Assad has vowed that Syria will continue “to defend its stability and territorial integrity” but he has not appeared in public since losing parts of the country last week.

Iran is also a close ally and backer of Mr Al Assad, with proxies such as Hezbollah playing a crucial role in the conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Mr Al Assad in Damascus on Sunday and said Tehran would “firmly support the Syrian government and army”. But there has been no sign of any significant Iranian intervention.

Why is the timing of the offensive crucial?

The rebels chose to launch the insurgency when Mr Al Assad’s allies were either weakened or occupied with other conflicts. The offensive began soon after a ceasefire was reached between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Israel's assault on Lebanon has weakened Hezbollah and put Iran on the defensive.

Russia has focused military resources in Ukraine, where war has been raging for more than two years.

“Keep in mind that, for many years, the Syrian government has been engaged in a civil war backed by three main players, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday. “All three of those players have been distracted and weakened by conflicts elsewhere.”

The Syrian civil war started after authorities used deadly force to suppress a peaceful, pro-democracy movement that started in March 2011. At least 300,000 people have been killed and 14 million have fled their homes since 2011, according to the UN. More than 7.2 million Syrians remain internally displaced.

What began 13 years ago as pro-democracy protests against the government of Mr Al Assad eventually grew into a nationwide armed rebellion involving a coalition of army defectors and religious groups.

In 2020, Russia and Turkey agreed to a ceasefire in 2020 in northern Syria, which had lessened the violence until the latest offensive.

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Citizenship-by-investment programmes

United Kingdom

The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).

All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.

The Caribbean

Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.

Portugal

The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.

“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.

Greece

The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.

Spain

The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.

Cyprus

Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.

Malta

The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.

The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.

Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.

Egypt

A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.

Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties

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