Middle East braces for Syria chaos as shock rebel offensive continues

Countries across the Middle East scrambled to contain the fallout from a shock offensive in Syria by opposition forces who have launched an offensive in Aleppo.

Rebels cut off a motorway and threatened to topple the government of President Bashar Al Assad, as reports emerge that state forces continue to crumble. The campaign was launched by forces led by Hayat Tahrir, an Islamist group and major player in Syria’s civil war.

The Syrian military retreated from areas of Aleppo on Friday, in what the army called a “redeployment operation” but claimed it was pushing rebel forces from the area, as well as in Hama countryside on Sunday.

As news of the fighting emerged, Mr Al Assad vowed that Syria would continue to “defend its stability and territorial integrity”, state news agency Sana reported. The quick advance by the rebels nonetheless calls into question the stability of the regime, particularly during a time in which allies crucial to Mr Al Assad's survival in recent years are stretched across the region and further afield.

Regional governments braced themselves for a new round of violent instability in Syria, where Mr Assad, despite continuing fighting and strife more than a decade after the Syrian uprising in 2011, appeared to be regaining his grip on the country.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Damascus on Sunday, a day after an attack on the country’s consulate in Aleppo and Iranian reports that an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general was killed in the fighting.

Both countries are staunch allies and Iranian forces and proxies have been vital to propping up his government. The Syrian government regained much of the country in 2015 and all of Aleppo in 2016, with the pivotal help of Iran and its proxies, as well as Russian forces.

“The Syrian army will once again win over these terrorist groups as in the past,” Mr Araghchi said, calling the rebel campaign a US-Israeli plot.

The US said on Saturday that it had no role in the fighting, calling Hayat Tahrir a “designated terrorist organisation”. NSC spokesman Sean Savet nonetheless added that Mr Assad's “reliance on Russia and Iran, created the conditions now unfolding, including the collapse of Assad regime lines in north-west Syria”.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country was following updates closely and that it would defend its interests.

Israeli officials were closely monitoring developments, Israeli outlet Haaretz reported, with one official telling the paper that Israel viewed the fighting as a short-term boost to a recent ceasefire it struck with Lebanon to end fighting with Hezbollah.

The official added that the Lebanese militant group could be distracted by the events, but that a potential danger for Israel lies in the possibility that Iran would bring large numbers of forces into Syria and that chaos in the country could see terror groups gain a stronghold on Israel’s border.

Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan had a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the situation. The readout of a different call between Mr Lavrov and Mr Araghchi said “strong support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic was reaffirmed”. Reuters also reported that Russia promised Damascus more military aid to fight rebels.

President Sheikh Mohamed held a phone call on Saturday with Mr Assad and emphasised the UAE's solidarity with Syria and its support in combating terrorism and extremism. He reaffirmed the UAE's stance supporting all efforts aimed at achieving a peaceful resolution to the Syrian crisis.

Mr Assad returned to the Arab fold two years ago after about a decade of isolation in the aftermath of the start of the civil war in 2011.

The office of Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani said he discussed the developments with Mr Assad on Saturday, “emphasising that Syria’s security and stability are directly linked to Iraq’s national security”.

Meanwhile, Iraqi security and military officials have said that Iraqi security forces are on high alert at the borders with Syria, assuring that fortifications are enough to stop any attempts to attack or cross to Iraq. “Securing of the Iraqi borders [with Syria] is one of our priorities,” Maj Gen Yahya Rasool, Mr Al Sudani's military spokesman said.

He added that Iraqi forces are deployed deep inside the country to carry out “continuous surveillance operations” and that attacks on Iraqi borders will be met with a “firm and strong response.

Iraq stepped up efforts in recent years to secure its borders after ISIS took over about a third of Syria and 40 per cent of Iraq in 2014. Iraq, whose border with Syria is more than 600 kilometres long, has built a wall and dug a trench in some areas, which has been fortified with an integrated monitoring system, which includes fences, a concrete wall and 24-hour thermal surveillance cameras.

Jordan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Safadi said that his country backed Syria’s “territorial integrity” and that violence was a “cause of concern”.