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US President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to end the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war but there is often a gap between political rhetoric and reality. Should he choose to act on his word, the main question is how?
He has expressed strong support for Israel's actions against Hamas in Gaza but said in March the war needed to end quickly. With the conflict since expanding to another front in Lebanon, against Hezbollah, Mr Trump could play a part in speeding up the process, probably at the expense of the Palestinian people, experts say.
Mr Trump's popularity with the Israeli public has given him significant leverage over their leader Benjamin Netanyahu, especially among the Prime Minister's right-wing support base, said Helit Barel, a former director at the Israeli National Security Council. That could place Mr Netanyahu under more pressure to follow the Trump administration's demands over the war.
“Any collision with Donald Trump is detrimental to Netanyahu,” she told The National. “I think he's absolutely able to come in with much more leverage vis-a-vis Netanyahu, because there are a lot of things you can't take for granted with Donald Trump.”
The devastating conflict was sparked by Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage in Gaza. Since then, about 43,400 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and another 3,000 people in Lebanon, where the fighting escalated when Israel started a ground campaign last month. World leaders are increasingly calling for a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon, and a hostage release deal, on which the warring parties have so far failed to agree.
Some analysts say Mr Trump could place the burden of ending the war on Israel, through threats of lowering support and military aid to force Mr Netanyahu’s hand into reaching a ceasefire deal.
Any collision with Donald Trump is detrimental to Netanyahu
Helit Barel,
former Israeli National Security Council director
Others see Mr Trump placing the burden on Iran and proxy groups including Hamas and Hezbollah, by allowing Mr Netanyahu to continue striking them, increasing military pressure and essentially forcing them into de-escalation.
“What Israelis expect is that Trump will attempt to bring about a ceasefire by letting Israel execute its war plans without as many restrictions as the Biden administration, to fight the war without its hands being tied,” said Shmuel Rosner, senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute in Jerusalem.
Whichever scenario materialises, all countries in the region are aware of less predictability under Trump. “Countries in this region take him more seriously than Biden,” Mr Rosner added. “They are more aware of his ability to be unpredictable and aggressive, and that's something they all must consider – and this includes Israel, by the way, it's not just the Iranians.”
Analysts point out there are still more than two months until Mr Trump takes office, a period current President Joe Biden could use to pressure the warring sides to end the conflict now that considerations around voter sentiment are irrelevant.
“I do wonder whether a Trump presidency will end up being relevant to this, or will he come into a fait accompli?” said Ms Barel. “We still have two months of Biden, who is now traditionally considered a lame duck, but on the other hand, he has also now released himself from any burden of election calculations or considerations.”
Some observers believe a deal in Lebanon is due within weeks. A Hamas-Israel agreement for Gaza is more complicated, because it involves issues of governing the enclave once the fighting ends, and the specific terms of an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
The lame-duck period could also have consequences for the direct Iran-Israel conflict. Israel launched strikes on ballistic missile manufacturing sites and air defences in Iran last month, in response to a previous attack on its territory. More Iranian retaliation on Israel is expected.
Mr Trump’s win and the advent of his more unpredictable behaviour “might signal to the Iranians that it's time for them to wrap up the escalation of hostilities with Israel and go back to more civil behaviour”, Mr Rosner said. “That's one possibility. It could also be a hint to all parties that they have to escalate now because they have only a narrow window of time before Trump gets into office.”
Palestinians sidelined
Mr Trump’s close alliance with Israel during his last presidency augurs poorly for Palestinians, who fear that the president-elect will give Mr Netanyahu’s government the go-ahead to continue cracking down on freedom, while expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law.
“Trump's insistence on being Israel's top ally suggests an even more aggressive sidelining of legitimate Palestinian aspirations,” Dimitri Diliani, spokesman for the reformist wing in Fatah, which controls the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority government body, told The National.
The closure of the Palestinian diplomatic mission in the US during the previous Trump administration does not give Palestinians much hope for their representation when he resumes office in January.
“Trump tends towards Israel’s interests,” said Ammar Jaber, a Palestinian political analyst. “There is the issue of the closure of the Palestinian mission in the US, which was a blow to peace and Palestinian recognition.”
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
The years Ramadan fell in May
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Pakistan squad
Sarfraz (c), Zaman, Imam, Masood, Azam, Malik, Asif, Sohail, Shadab, Nawaz, Ashraf, Hasan, Amir, Junaid, Shinwari and Afridi
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The bio
Favourite vegetable: Broccoli
Favourite food: Seafood
Favourite thing to cook: Duck l'orange
Favourite book: Give and Take by Adam Grant, one of his professors at University of Pennsylvania
Favourite place to travel: Home in Kuwait.
Favourite place in the UAE: Al Qudra lakes
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A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
At a glance
- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
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