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Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have crossed back into Syria from Lebanon in recent weeks, driven out by Israeli air strikes. The mass return has become a rallying point for anti-immigration politicians in Europe, who are pressuring the EU to reconsider its 13-year freeze on diplomatic relations with Syria in the hope of encouraging Syrian refugees in Europe to follow suit and return home.

The EU is evaluating a plan to rehabilitate basic infrastructure in areas of Syria under government control to accommodate returnees, in co-ordination with the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), according to an informal document viewed by The National.

“Given that these individuals will probably not be able to return to Lebanon, and in view of the significant change in the situation, it is necessary to see how the EU can enhance its humanitarian assistance and support for early recovery in Syria,” reads the document, drafted by the European Commission and recently discussed by EU ambassadors in Brussels.

“The EU does not have diplomatic relations with Syria, but finding a way for the EU to play its full part – working with the UN agencies – is now of particular urgency, given the dramatic increase in humanitarian needs triggered by the large numbers of Syrians and Lebanese crossing to Syria,” it said.

The openness to infrastructure rehabilitation marks a potential policy shift in line with requests made by eight EU countries in July, an EU diplomat told The National. “The issue of the returns of Syrian refugees – which must take place in a safe, voluntary and dignified manner – is made all the more urgent by the evolution of hostilities in the Middle East and Lebanon, which is in fact already prompting an increase in Syrian refugee returns,” they said.

But human rights activists warn that this approach could pave the way for deportations to so-called “safe zones” in Syria – a stance championed by some EU nations, including the Czech Republic, Cyprus and Denmark, although formal expulsions have yet to occur.

“This raises concerns that EU countries, along with other host countries, may be encouraging a framework for large-scale returns infrastructure that could ultimately enable forced deportations,” Adam Coogle, Middle East deputy director at Human Rights Watch, told The National.

'Syria safer than Lebanon'

In a year marked by elections across Europe, immigration has been a controversial topic that has fuelled the rise of the far-right. For months, a coalition of member states, led by countries such as Italy and Austria, has lobbied Brussels for a revised stance on Syria.

Syrians continue to lodge the most asylum applications in the EU, where they benefit from subsidiary protection granted to people from high-risk conflict areas, and show no intention of going home.

Less than two per cent of the close to two million UN-registered Syrian refugees living in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq say they want to return to Syria in the next year because of the lack of work opportunities and safety fears, according to a UN survey published in June.

Countries such as Cyprus, which had faced a surge of Syrian arrivals by boat, say they want to encourage voluntary returns while others, such as Austria, want to deport them.

The recent mass departures to Syria caused by Israel's bombing of Lebanon, which has killed more than 2,800 people, has been used as proof that, despite what human rights activists say, Syria is safe for return.

“Syria is now documented as safe in several areas, because Syrian refugees are actually returning to Syria from Lebanon, and Lebanese refugees are going to Syria because it’s safer than in Lebanon at the moment,” Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said on October 17 ahead of a meeting with his EU counterparts in Brussels.

“That should be enough of a sign that you can actually carry out deportations,” added Mr Nehammer.

Despite Austria's push, not all EU nations share this sense of urgency. Countries such as Belgium, Ireland and France have reportedly remained firm on the three “nos” on Syria: no normalisation of relations, no reconstruction, no lifting of sanctions.

At the start of Syria's civil war in 2011, the EU issued sanctions on President Bashar Al Assad, his supporters, and sectors of the economy linked to the regime, in response to the government's brutal repression of civilians. The war has since died down but has claimed more than 500,000 lives and displaced more than 12 million people. Land and housing theft, arbitrary detentions, bribery by state officials and forced conscription are among the risks faced by civilians in large swathes of the country.

Whatever is happening in Lebanon, the situation in Syria remains unsafe for returns, French diplomatic sources told The National. “It is mostly up to the Syrian regime to create the conditions for a safe and dignified voluntary return,” they said. In June, a French court upheld an arrest warrant against Mr Al Assad.

Meanwhile, the pressure on the EU Commission appears to be bearing fruit. On Monday, a spokeswoman confirmed it was working on appointing a special envoy to Syria, which was one of several proposals made in July by Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Slovakia and Slovenia. In a letter to the EU's foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, they criticised the bloc's stagnant Syria policy, especially given the country's recent reintegration into the Arab League.

This shift carries significant risks for returnees, activists say. Human Rights Watch and the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) have documented more than 30 cases of arrests and detention by Syrian security forces since September 23. That is when Israel started to heavily bomb Lebanon, killing Hezbollah members but also civilians, including Syrians.

Among the victims was Mahmoud Khaled Al Iliwi, a 19-year-old agricultural labourer who had lived in Lebanon as a refugee since 2013.

He was detained with his father upon re-entering Syria through an unregulated crossing and reportedly died under torture in government custody. His father, released on October 22, was given his son's body by the military security directorate in Hama, according to the SNHR. They had been on their way to their hometown of Idlib, the capital of north-west Syria, which is governed by Turkey-backed rebel groups.

Health care and housing needs

Lebanon, which borders Syria, hosted until last month more than one million Syrians, who have in the past years come under hostile attacks from locals amid a crippling financial crisis. Yet few returned until the bombs started falling. In 2023, close to 40,000 of the six million Syrians living Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq and Turkey went back to Syria – one third less than the previous year – according to the UN.

It appears that so far, few Syrian men have risked the return route. Figures shared by the UNHCR show that some 80 per cent of recent Syrian returnees are women and children, and 56 per cent are under 18 years old.

In total, 469,000 people have fled Lebanon to Syria since September 23. Syrians make up 71 per cent of these, with the rest a mix of Lebanese, Palestinians, Iraqis and migrant workers.

Most Syrians go to their village of origin in government-controlled areas. Some 96,771 have gone to north-east Syria, which is largely under Kurdish control, while another 7,000 have gone to north-west Syria.

The UNHCR said it was not in a position to confirm or deny every report of alleged arrests in Syria but that, should it receive credible information, it could follow up with the Syrian government.

“UNHCR continues to engage with the government of Syria to address barriers that Syrian refugees have told UNHCR hinder their voluntary return to Syria, including relating to safety and security. UNHCR calls on the government to ensure the safety and security of returnees and to respond to their needs,” regional spokeswoman Rula Amin told The National.

UNHCR has also been providing legal services to recent returnees to Syria at the five border crossing points with Lebanon. “Legal services range from counselling on matters of concern to legal advice and support in representation before courts,” said Ms Amin.

The government's willingness to allow more than 90,000 people to cross its territory while heading to the north-east is an illustration of its willingness to let people go to an area of their choosing, she added.

Arrivals are placing further strain on public infrastructure and services in Syria, already impacted by 13 years of conflict. Around two-thirds of hospitals and half of primary care facilities are out of service, the UN Population Fund said on October 8 in a flash appeal for $7.5 million for displaced women and girls.

Conditions for voluntary returns can only be achieved via security guarantees from the Syrian government and material support from the international community, according to UNHCR. “We call for an increase in the scope of humanitarian assistance to address the other set of obstacles returnees identify like lack of services, health and education, housing and livelihood opportunities,” said Ms Amin.

In response, the EU Commission is reportedly considering boosting funds for basic services such as health care, education, and job creation for returning Syrians, as outlined in its informal policy paper.

Yet the Commission remains cautious, noting the fine line between supporting infrastructure and avoiding any normalisation with President Al Assad.

Ultimately, the EU Commission will have to weigh its restrictive measures on Syria against the urgent demands posed by escalating returns – and EU countries' hopes that these returns will be for the long term.

“An important consideration,” the document notes, “will be whether and how, without normalising relations with the regime, we could adjust our operational parameters to be able to act in the current changed circumstances of growing spontaneous returns to Syria.”

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