Damage caused by Israel’s massed air attack on Iran is more extensive than previously reported, with the country now “highly vulnerable” to future attacks, experts have told The National.
Sophisticated radars and surface-to-air missile systems were destroyed during Saturday’s attack and will take months to repair, satellite evidence shows.
These included surveillance systems that can allegedly detect stealth aircraft and the advanced Russian-made S-300 SAMs that can strike jets at ranges of 400km.
With Israel indicating that it might make a further retaliatory strike following an attempted drone attack on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea, Iran is now highly exposed.
“The damage to Iran's air defences has likely seriously degraded Iran’s ability to defend against further Israeli attacks,” the Institute for the Study of War think tank stated in a report.
“Israel's retaliatory strikes on Iran significantly degraded Iran's integrated air defence system and made subsequent Israeli strikes on Iran easier and less risky.”
The damage meant that Israel had “put itself in a position to conduct a highly successful secondary strike”, said Megan Sutcliffe, the Middle East expert at geopolitical intelligence company Sibylline, although she added it would be unlikely “without some other major red line being crossed”.
But senior right-wing Israeli government figures are keen for direct action against Iran to erode its military capabilities rather than fighting its proxies around the region.
The likelihood of that will increase if Donald Trump, who is very pro-Israeli and anti-Iran, is elected as US president next week.
Air defences blinded
A fleet of about 100 aircraft, including F-35 stealth fighters, F-16s and F-15s conducted three waves of long-range missions, hitting at least 20 sites across Iran on Saturday.
The bombs were dropped with precision and, most importantly, took out two of Iran’s Ghadir radars that can detect ballistic missiles at 1,100km and aircraft at 600km.
“That effectively really undermines Iran's capability to engage with air targets significantly because it removes its capability to respond,” said Ms Sutcliffe.
She added that further strikes against air detection systems in Iraq and Syria had significantly degraded Iran’s long-range ability to see incoming attacks across the region.
Senior US and Israeli officials have also disclosed that much of Iran’s S-300 system has now been rendered “inoperable”.
Critical infrastructure damaged
The Institute for the Study of War's report also said the precision of the attacks had “partially obscured the serious damage” that the strikes had inflicted “on critical Iranian defence and military infrastructure”.
Potentially of greater danger to the Tehran regime is the threat posed to its oil refineries and exports after their air defences were also destroyed.
Commercial satellite evidence shows that defences around Abadan oil refinery and the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex in Khuzestan that produces millions of tons of petroleum-based products for export, were hit.
The defences at Bandar port, which is a major economic hub in the Gulf, were also struck, as well as the refinery at the Tang-e Bijar gas field in Ilam.
The series of industrial targets struck suggest that Israel was not only demonstrating that Iran was “highly vulnerable” but also to deter it from conducting further direct strikes on Israel, said Ms Sutcliffe.
“Iran is now far more vulnerable to a highly impactful Israeli strike on locations such as oil export facilities that leaves it economically, but also militarily, much more vulnerable.”
Furthermore, it could undermine domestic stability as Iranians have access to very cheap oil, in part facilitated by exports to China, as previous price rises have led to violent demonstrations.
“The access to highly subsidised oil is incredibly important to Iran, for example in the manufacturing industry, but also for the domestic population,” she added.
Long-term repairs
Iran is unlikely to consider further direct strikes against Israel, at least for several months, until it has repaired its air defences.
Another pressing issue is that with Russia’s air defences at full stretch defending against Ukrainian attacks, it will take some time before the destroyed systems are replaced.
However, to restore the radars and S-300 system, Russia is likely to demand a high price, which if unaffordable might drive Iran to seek air defence systems from the Chinese.
A further economic cost for the regime came when bombs struck the Shahroud missile facility in Semnan province, which builds solid-propellant ballistic missiles and, as recently as last month, was launching space vehicles into orbit.
Iran's huge and secretive defence industrial site at Parchin was also hit, further reducing its ability to manufacture advanced weapons, including drones and missiles.
Experts told The National that it could now take up to a year for Iran to produce advanced missiles powered by solid fuel, further undermining the regime’s deterrence.
