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Development in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank could be set back decades according to a new UN report, which provides details of the economic devastation after a year of catastrophic war.
The UNDP report, released on Tuesday and titled Gaza War: Expected Socioeconomic Impacts On The State of Palestine, tracks indicators such as rising hunger and lack of shelter. While it has a strong focus on the Gaza Strip – where more than 42,000 people have been killed and nearly 100,000 wounded – it also tracks the wider impact on Palestinian territories as a whole.
It notes that the State of Palestine has lost $7.1 billion in real GDP due to the war, reiterating previous estimates of $18.5 billion in damage to Gaza.
Looking at the UN’s Human Development Index, the report says the key international indicator of poverty and progress could “regress by 69 years (to June 1955 levels)”, or the equivalent, since the indicator began in 1990.
About 140,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed, meaning that even if the war ends now, more than 740,000 people will be homeless, which carries its own risks, including the danger of disease in crowded displacement camps.
The Human Development Index was formulated by Pakistani economist Mahbub Ul Haq and measures factors such as schooling and the health of the population for a more granular understanding of poverty and development than GDP alone.
The report highlights how “93 per cent of children and 96 per cent of pregnant and breastfeeding women are consuming fewer food groups daily, leading to households skipping meals. As a result, the need for nutrition support is becoming more urgent”.
But the report also highlights disaster in the West Bank, where Israeli fire has killed nearly 800 people since October 7 – a colossal spike in violence amid regular Israeli raids into occupied towns such as Jenin and Nablus. Israeli checkpoints and the suspension of about 150,000 work permits for Palestinian workers to enter Israel have left the economy there in ruins, aggravating already high unemployment.
Israel has also stopped nearly $200 million per month being transferred to the Palestinian Authority, funds it collected on the PA's behalf from taxes and customs duties, known as “clearance revenue”.
“As of September 2024, approximately 3,300,000 Palestinians (2.3 million in Gaza), including 1,554,700 children, were in urgent need of various forms of humanitarian assistance,” the report warns. It says that in the West Bank and Gaza, poverty is expected to hit 74.3 per cent this year, affecting 4.1 million people.
Sharp decline
The report outlines three scenarios. In one, Israel does not lift restrictions on workers and clearance revenue, although current economic aid is maintained. A second scenario imagines restrictions continue but an additional $280 million in economic aid is allocated, and in a third scenario all restrictions are lifted and $570 million in aid is allocated, followed by $280 million a year.
Only in the third scenario does the report offer any hope of progress, albeit with steep unemployment.
The first scenario, with current aid levels but continued Israeli economic restrictions, predicts catastrophe. With the worker permit ban in place and revenue held back, “GDP is projected to fall by 20.1 per cent in 2025 and by 34 per cent by 2034 compared with prewar levels, with multidimensional poverty remaining extremely high.
“Achieving a permanent ceasefire is expected to decrease the already high unemployment rate by approximately 3 percentage points, allowing it to reach 55 per cent by 2034.”
By comparison, Tunisia has one of the worst unemployment rates in the Middle East, at 16 per cent.
In the second scenario, the restrictions continue but “$280 million in humanitarian aid addresses immediate needs”. But the report warns that this sum “does not support long-term economic recovery. Under this scenario, GDP is expected to decline by 19.6 per cent in 2025, with a 33 per cent drop by 2034. Poverty will persist, with only minimal improvements.”
Worryingly, even in the best scenario, with $280 million allocated for aid now and $290 million a year also allocated, plus all restrictions lifted, “productivity increases by 1 per cent annually” and unemployment stabilises at a staggering 26 per cent.
The report says any hope of recovery will need the restoration of “freedom of movement, establishing a political framework that promotes Palestinian ownership led by the PA, and providing minimum essential services such as water, electricity and telecommunications”.
It says a capacity-building effort – aid projects that build the skills of government workers to meet international standards – would be needed for Palestinian institutions “for recovery and reconstruction, reconnecting Gaza and the West Bank”.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
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Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
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Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
All the Money in the World
Director: Ridley Scott
Starring: Charlie Plummer, Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Williams, Christopher Plummer
Four stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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The years Ramadan fell in May
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Zayed Sustainability Prize
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
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Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
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Price: From Dh590,000
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Honeymoonish
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
