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Lebanon has plunged deeper into turmoil over the past year amid Israel's war on Hezbollah and the state's inability to stop it, prompting opposition MPs, who hold about a third of the 128-seat parliament, to chart a difficult path forward in the leaderless country.
In a gathering earlier this week, opposition parties outlined their ambitious road map, aiming to end the war and establish a long-term solution to prevent future conflicts. They called for an urgent ceasefire and the swift election of a president – one capable of brokering the truce and implementing a series of UN resolutions that would effectively disarm Hezbollah and transform it into a purely political party.
How likely it is to succeed is unclear as the conflict drags on. Israel aims not just to weaken Hezbollah, but to completely eradicate the Iran-backed militant group, Lebanon’s most powerful force since the civil war of 1975 to 1990. For the opposition politicians, who are all generally deeply opposed to Hezbollah and the grip they say it has on Lebanon, a new solution must come about - and one that stops Lebanon being constantly embroiled in near-constant conflict.
"We don't want to isolate or eliminate anyone. But Hezbollah should be a political party like any other Lebanese party," said Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces (LF), the largest faction in the loose coalition of the opposition groups, after the meeting. While the gathering was attended by opposition representatives, it was very much spearheaded by the LF and held at the party's headquarters in Maraab.
Israel's relentless demolition of Lebanon has shown no sign of diminishing despite international efforts for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Hezbollah remains the most powerful actor in Lebanon and is known to be opposed to taking orders from other politicians or parties.
But the opposition politicians say they cannot stand by as Israel's attacks see more people killed and displaced, even as many Lebanese politicians believe that, despite severe escalations and high civilian casualties, Israel’s war on Lebanon follows an undeclared rule book, with Hezbollah focusing on military targets and Israeli air strikes sparing the country’s infrastructure and army.
Mr Geagea has regularly rebuked Hezbollah for embarking on a conflict with Israel over the war in Gaza, which began the day after Hamas's unprecedented incursion into south Israel on October 7 last year.
The National asked why Hezbollah, who, despite its leadership being decimated, is still more powerful than the Lebanese Army and is fending off Israel's advances in the south, would agree to transition to a purely political party.
"Because it is logical, after everything that happened," Mr Geagea answered. "Suppose that at the beginning, they would have known what a war could be? But now I think, we have to come to the realities as they are."
This was echoed by MP Ashraf Rifi, an independent MP and the former commander of the Internal Security Forces, who claimed that the "balance of power is not on Hezbollah's side".
The opposition parties' plan calls for significantly strengthening the role of the Lebanese Army in southern Lebanon to maintain stability. However, this is a much more challenging goal to achieve, as Hezbollah has been building up its arsenal and positions along the border since the 2006 war with Israel and is unlikely to relinquish its presence there.
In the wake of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, all armed groups gave up their weapons – including the Lebanese Forces, which Mr Geagea commanded. Hezbollah was the exception because Israel was occupying the south at the time.
While Israel says its new invasion is seeking to remove the threat posed by Hezbollah to its national security, in Lebanon the war is seen as an attack on the entire country.
Top Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, have been floating UN Resolution 1701, which was agreed upon in 2006 to end the last war between Hezbollah and Israel. The resolution stipulates that the Lebanese army and peacekeepers should be the only armed forces deployed in the country's south.
The resolution was never fully enforced and Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of failing to uphold the terms. Israeli planes continued breaching Lebanese airspace, while Hezbollah kept building up its capabilities along the border.
The opposition thinks that the resolution does not go far enough and that a solution must be further-reaching. They also want the implementation of the Resolutions 1559 and 1680 – which under 1701 are also supposed to be enacted – calling for the disarmament of all non-state groups, including Hezbollah.
"We need to end this war as soon as possible but end it in a permanent solution, not just temporary," said former deputy prime minister Ghassan Hasbani. "All of the temporary solutions in the past have actually led to a worse situation later on."
Lebanon was fractured even before the conflict broke out last year, while sectarian tensions are at an all-time high. There are concerns that any side in Lebanon's multifaceted and confessional system seeking to impose on another could see a civil war erupt. While Hezbollah may have been weakened, it is still the most powerful force in Lebanon.
The country has also been without a president for almost two years after Michel Aoun's mandate expired in October 2022. The deeply divided parliament has failed 12 times to elect a successor, with competing blocs backing two different candidates. The pro-Hezbollah faction supports Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, while their opponents support former minister Jihad Azour.
Elias Estephan, an MP for the LF, said opposition parties are "trying to send a message that there's a huge portion of the Lebanese people that don't want this war."
"There's always somebody that needs to start something. I think that someone needs to start applying it someway," he added, when asked if it was possible to implement the UN resolutions, given how none of the three resolutions have ever been fully implemented.
