Egypt is building up its military mission in Somalia before the December 31 deadline for Ethiopian troops to withdraw from the Horn of Africa nation, with Cairo also training and supporting Somali security forces in the fight against Al Qaeda-linked militants, sources told The National on Tuesday.
Egypt and Somalia, members of the Cairo-based Arab League, signed a milestone military co-operation agreement in August. Egypt has since sent weapons, military advisers, trainers and counter-terrorism commandos to Mogadishu.
Thousands of Egyptian personnel were expected to be involved in the military mission by the end of the year, the sources said. Ethiopia is believed to have about 22,000 troops in Somalia, they added.
The Ethiopians are in the country under the terms of a bilateral agreement and as part of an African Union peacekeeping force to help Somalia fight against Al Shabab.
Both Egypt and Somalia are at sharp odds with Ethiopia. Cairo has complained that a Nile dam built by Addis Ababa will reduce Egypt's vital share of the river's water. Somalia said its sovereignty was breached by a deal announced this year between landlocked Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland that is to give Addis Ababa a port on the Red Sea.
Egypt announced it intended to replace the Ethiopian peacekeepers at the end of the year, a move Somalia has publicly supported.
Some Somali forces supported by Egyptian advisers, the sources said, have already been sent along the Ethiopian contingent's supply routes to prevent, if necessary, any attempt by Addis Ababa to send more soldiers into the country before the withdrawal deadline.
The sources said Ethiopia increased its military presence by an estimated 7,000 men to 22,000 in the days after Egypt began to send weapons and military personnel to Somalia.
Ethiopia has been defending its January deal with Somaliland, arguing that access to the Red Sea allows it to protect shipping and ensure the stability of the Horn of Africa region. It has also indirectly criticised Egypt's military role in Somalia.
Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie, who was foreign minister at the time, said he was concerned that arms from “external forces would further exacerbate the fragile security [in Somalia] and would end up in the hands of terrorists”, the Ethiopia News Agency reported. He was referring to Al Shabab.
In response, Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi said: “Ethiopia's motivation behind these defamatory statements is its attempt to conceal the illegal smuggling of weapons across the Somali borders, which are falling into the hands of civilians and terrorists.” He did not elaborate.
Ethiopia has repeatedly sought to assure Egypt, and fellow downstream country Sudan, that the nearly complete Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will not harm their interests. The project was crucial to the country's development, Addis Ababa has explained.
More than a decade of negotiations between the three nations have failed to produce a deal, with Egypt and Sudan pushing for Ethiopia to enter a legally binding agreement on the operation of the dam and filling of its reservoir. Ethiopia said a set of recommendations should suffice.
Last week, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi touched on the issue at an online water conference. “The River Nile, specifically, is an issue that's associated with the life and survival of Egyptians,” he said. “It's the chief source of life in our nation. Egypt is the gift of the glorious river."
Mr El Sisi has in the past decade sought to persuade countries in the Nile basin and Horn of Africa to put pressure on Addis Ababa to be flexible over the dam dispute. It's toward that goal that Egypt has struck a series of military co-operation agreements with some of those nations and offered expertise and professional assistance to others.
Cairo's actions in Somalia and growing ties with Eritrea emphasise Egypt's increasing resolve to put pressure on Ethiopia to enter an agreement on the dam. Both Somalia and Eritrea overlook the southern reaches of the Red Sea and neighbour Ethiopia to the south and north respectively.
Last week, Mr El Sisi and the leaders of Somalia and Eritrea met in Asmara for an intensely publicised summit. Mr El Sisi told reporters in the Eritrean capital that his country “will provide all forms of support to the brotherly nation of Somalia so that it can restore its safety and security".
"We discussed practical suggestions to offer this help," he added. “Egypt will spare no effort nor withhold advice that serves the objectives of our peoples and the aspirations of our nations in the Horn of Africa.”
Egypt's growing ties with Eritrea is a reflection of the fraught relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa.
A 2018 peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia eased tensions temporarily and paved the way for Eritrea to support Addis Ababa in its war against the separatist Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). But Eritrea is unhappy with the peace accord Ethiopia signed in 2022 with the TPLF, which Asmara views as a threat to its national security.
