Lebanon is paying the price in Israel's war - and it can't afford it

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More than 2,000 people have been killed in Lebanon in the past year, while more than a million people are displaced. Israel has effectively declared war on half of Lebanon’s territory, while the population of the other half is living in fear of war spreading into the rest of the country.

Israel has ordered residents of more than 100 villages to leave their homes, rescue workers are being attacked, the nightly bombings by Israel are a trauma for much of the country and shelters are overwhelmed.

“I remember Albert Einstein's quote saying 'what counts the most is what cannot be counted.' The most terrible price has been paid by the victims,” said Karim Bitar, a professor of International Relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

“What is also difficult to count and will be very important in the next few years is the psychological trauma that has been endured by millions of Lebanese,” he added.

In Beirut's Martyr's Square, dozens of displaced families camp out in the open while cars belonging to people who fled Israel's attacks jam the roads.

Hezbollah's war

The displacement is the result of a year of war between Hezbollah and Israel – a war “Hezbollah is responsible for dragging Lebanon into”, according to Khalil Helou, a retired Lebanese army general and a lecturing professor in geopolitics.

Hezbollah has engaged Israel in a cross-border conflict in support of its ally Hamas in the Gaza Strip since October 8, 2023 – the day after Hamas infiltrated Israel, setting off a series of events that set the region aflame.

Hezbollah always insisted it did not want a full-on war, but was ready for it if it was imposed – something that came to fruition last month.

In mid-September, thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah to avoid communication interceptions by Israel exploded simultaneously, setting off the Lebanon phase of Israel’s war to eradicate its enemies in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and Lebanon.

“I don't think that what anyone expected, be that inside or outside Lebanon, was just how badly Hezbollah would be damaged by these latest Israeli attacks,” said David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at Crisis Group.

The government has largely been a helpless bystander while the Lebanese Army has stayed away.

What had been a low-intensity war suddenly became the major conflict Lebanon’s population had long feared was inevitable. Israel launched an air assault on various parts of Lebanon and Beirut, targeting Hezbollah’s command structure and weapons stores.

The party’s charismatic leader of three decades, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated in late September – leaving serious questions about Hezbollah’s ability to fight off a major Israeli ground and air invasion. By October, Israeli troops were in southern Lebanon.

Since then, as Hezbollah fights a ground battle with Israel on its own turf, at least eight Israeli soldiers have been killed – also raising serious questions about Israel’s entry into what could prove to be yet another un-win-able war.

Meanwhile, thousands of displaced people throughout Lebanon are still sleeping in streets and orchards, under shop awnings, and in abandoned, decrepit homes.

Israeli strikes on Beirut – in pictures

They are the unlucky thousands – of some 1.2 million people displaced by the Israeli air assault.

But perhaps they’re lucky to be alive. The Israeli assault has wiped out entire families, targeting different villages each day. Since Israel escalated its campaign on Hezbollah and Lebanon on September 16, more than 1,401 people have been killed. According to the UN, about 400,000 children have been displaced.

“Doctors tell us of treating children who are bloodied, bruised, and broken, suffering both physically and mentally. Many are experiencing anxiety, flashbacks, and nightmares related to explosions,” said Unicef Regional Director Adele Khodr.

The Lebanese Army, regarded as paling in comparison in strength to Hezbollah, has maintained a policy of non-involvement.

Rebuilding

“It's obvious the immediate damage that the war has brought to Lebanon in terms of destroying things,” said David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at Crisis Group.

“There's also this potential for domestic tensions to be inflamed, which is something that we are really worried about. That's a really serious issue and depending on how the war goes, it's likely to gather the wrong kind of momentum.”

There's also the cost of rebuilding. When Israel and Hezbollah last fought an all-out war in 2006, Lebanon could count on an array of powerful international friends to help rebuild. But many of them, chiefly the Gulf states, have significantly reduced their engagement – in large part because of Hezbollah.

The National visits strike sites in southern Beirut

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“Lebanon has lost a lot of its friends in the international community. Its elites, through the complete pursuit of self-interest and wastefulness, have made any potential donors very reluctant to give money to the country,” said Mr Wood.

“Even in a best-case scenario if there was a quick resolution to the conflict, I struggle to imagine that reconstruction would be anything other than an incredibly painful and incomplete recovery.”

The country had already been entrenched in one of the worst economic crises in modern times. Efforts to correct the financial system and enact economic reforms were already dragging at a snail's pace – and the war has hardly helped matters.

Lebanon was hardly in the ideal situation before October 2023 and politicians and diplomats had warned that the country was unable to handle the impact that a wider war would inflict.

“Economic cost, human cost, cost in terms of mental health for an entire population and political cost in the sense that today Lebanon's very existence is jeapordised,” explained Prof Bitar.

“There is a serious risk of civil strife, of seeing Lebanese unity and national unity put to the test.”