How Israel deceived western mediators on Lebanon ceasefire

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Israel initially agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah but later “caught mediators off guard” by assassinating the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah and intensifying its attacks on Lebanon, western and Lebanese diplomatic and political sources said on Saturday.

The sources involved in the negotiations revealed to The National how Israel, at the last minute, undermined diplomatic efforts by taking advantage of its military successes.

The US and France led the high-stakes negotiations last month on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, raising hopes for a 21-day truce seen as a step towards a full ceasefire to end a year-long war of attrition that Israel had escalated only days earlier.

Sources said that Hezbollah, which has been exchanging fire with Israel since October 8, in support of its ally Hamas in Gaza, had shown flexibility for the first time after suffering huge blows. Meanwhile, Iran had told world leaders that it was seeking diplomacy, with its new President Masoud Pezeshkian calling for a “new era of co-operation” with the West at his first UN General Assembly.

“The UN negotiation phase initially sparked optimism, as Israel had agreed to a version of the ceasefire. The Israeli Prime Minister was set to announce a less intense phase in the Gaza war, which could have decoupled the Palestinian and Lebanese fronts,” a western diplomat told The National.

Before the negotiations, Hezbollah repeated that it will continue its attacks as long as there is no ceasefire in Gaza, linking the fate of the Lebanese front to a truce in the Palestinian enclave. However, the diplomatic source explained that Israel's announcement of a low-intensity phase in Gaza was meant to provide an opportunity for the Iran-backed group to agree to the proposed deal.

“Lebanon – which necessarily implies Hezbollah's green light – had signalled its approval to the ceasefire,” the western diplomatic source said.

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib stated in an interview with CNN that Mr Nasrallah had agreed to the deal only days before he was killed on September 27.

However, Israel, which had initially agreed to the ceasefire, saw an opportunity and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed during his speech at the UN that Israel would continue “degrading Hezbollah” until its objectives were met.

Shortly after his speech, powerful explosions rocked Lebanon's capital as Israel killed Mr Nasrallah in a massive strike on Beirut's southern suburbs, derailing the negotiations. The US claimed that it had not been warned in advance of the air strike that killed Mr Nasrallah and stated that the ceasefire deal was co-ordinated with Israel before its escalation.

“The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah during the ceasefire negotiations has caught mediators off guard. It appears that Israel may be pursuing an opportunistic strategy of pushing the limits as far as possible,” the western diplomat stressed.

Israel has not yet commented on the ceasefire negotiations.

'Torpedo any deal'

Israel has intensified its air assault against Lebanon, killing at least 1,400 people in the past three weeks, including dozens of women and children, and displacing up to a million, according to Lebanese authorities. It has also started what it described as a “limited" ground invasion while vowing to push Hezbollah away from the border.

Emboldened by the pager and walkie-talkie attacks in which thousands of devices belonging to Hezbollah members exploded, in addition to several assassinations of top commanders, Israel perceived a weakened Hezbollah and a softer Iran and decided to abandon diplomacy, a Lebanese political source said.

“During the UN General Assembly meetings, the US saw a positive Iranian attitude that opened the door for a diplomatic solution. It seemed the perfect opportunity for a truce, but Mr Netanyahu saw a weakened Iranian position and took advantage by escalating to torpedo any deal,” the source told The National.

A Lebanese political source claimed that everyone wanted a truce “except Israel”, despite it having initially agreed to one.

“The US, France and the UK told us the Israelis had agreed, so we agreed too,” a Lebanese parliamentary source said. “It wasn’t 21 days of smelling the air and then returning to war. It was 21 days during which a number of steps would take place with the intention of achieving a long-lasting, sustainable ceasefire."

France, along with the US through its special envoy Amos Hochstein, led talks for border de-escalation throughout the year. These discussions involved the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, on both sides of the border.

The resolution called for Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River, which is 30km from the border, and for the Lebanese Army to be deployed in the south, while Israel was to stop its breaches of Lebanon's airspace. This was intended to pave the way for the demarcation of the disputed land border between Lebanon and Israel.

For Lebanon, “the initiative is still viable because we have no other choice," the Lebanese parliamentary source stressed.

The war has already taken a huge toll, sparking mass displacement and a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, which is already grappling with severe economic challenges.

On Wednesday, Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for an “immediate” ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah after a meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Joumblatt.

'No trust'

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Mr Berri, the head of the Hezbollah ally Amal Movement, said that Lebanon remains committed to the agreements reached with US mediator Amos Hochstein. He added that communication with Hezbollah is continuing and that the armed group “is not far from this direction”.

“Today, the initiative by President Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Mikati, and Walid Joumblatt to halt the fighting has received unspoken approval from Hezbollah, representing a kind of temporary separation of the two fronts while awaiting a comprehensive solution," Kassem Kassir, an analyst with insights into Hezbollah, said.

Yet, political actors in Lebanon seem to have little hope for the negotiation process.

“While western countries are working with us on a ceasefire on the one hand, they’re sending weapons and ammunition to Israel on the other. If they really wanted to apply pressure [on Israel], maybe they should at minimum curtail the amount they’re sending,” the parliamentary source said.

For Lebanese politicians, there is a complete mistrust of Israel.

In July, senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was negotiating the Gaza ceasefire, was killed in a strike attributed to Israel in Iran following the inauguration of the new Iranian President. In Lebanon, Israel killed Mr Nasrallah when hopes for a ceasefire were at their highest.

“The line Mr Netanyahu is choosing will not get him results. The Israelis say 1701, we say 1701. But what he agrees to is completely different than what he’s planning (...). They’ve displayed historical greed in Lebanon. Since 1948 – even when there was no Hezbollah – they committed massacres on Lebanese and previously occupied Lebanon twice, ” the parliamentary source stressed.

“There’s no trust. But we still have to deal with them."

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