Netanyahu's popularity in Israel likely to rise after Hassan Nasrallah assassination

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After two weeks of attacks on Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, Israel’s beleaguered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can expect a boost in popularity despite trailing in polls for almost a year after the October 7 attacks, analysts have told The National.

Recent polls suggested that Mr Netanyahu was already seeing a spike in ratings as Israel intensified attacks on Hezbollah. These have included heavy bombardments and a widespread deadly sabotage of communication devices, which have killed more than 1,000 civilians. The assassination of the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday was likely to add to Mr Netanyahu’s popularity, the experts said, although how durable the boost will be is uncertain.

The flurry of Israeli assaults on Lebanon come at a time of great uncertainty about the future of Israel's campaign in Gaza and 11 months of tit-for-tat strikes between Hezbollah and Israel in the north, which have depopulated parts of northern Israel and forced more than 60,000 people to evacuate, a humiliating security failure for Mr Netanyahu’s government.

Israeli pollster Dahlia Scheindlin told The National she predicts some rise in support for Mr Netanyahu in the coming days because the assassination makes it look like “Israel is taking back the initiative and returning to an image of the country that Israelis like to remember about themselves: that they can outsmart enemies on the battlefield and respond to very serious public demand to retake sovereign Israeli territory in the north”.

It remains to be seen how long this would last, Ms Scheindlin said, highlighting that a languishing military campaign in Gaza “is still dragging the country down and it doesn’t play well for [Netanyahu] in surveys”.

“There’s no strategy, no plan, no day after, no alternative leadership that Netanyahu is willing to at least discuss or reveal. So, I think he won’t be able to escape the legacy of October 7 and what it’s done to the situation.”

In the October 7 attacks, Hamas entered southern Israel where 1,200 people were killed and 251 people were abducted into Gaza. In the year since, about 41,600 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza as the Israeli military launched a bombardment which has levelled most cities in the enclave and left millions displaced.

Anshel Pfeffer, who wrote a biography of the prime minister, said he did not think the rise in popularity would be “more than temporary because he’s not getting away from any of [Israel’s] core problems”.

“The war in Gaza isn’t ending and the war in Lebanon may well turn out to be a quagmire despite this initial success. The bigger issue is that Israelis still blame [Netanyahu] for October 7 and Israel being so divided before it. He’s going to try to frame [the assassination] in a kind of Churchillian narrative, as if we went through this period of blood, sweat and tears but now we’re coming out on top,” he added.

“I don’t think in the long run this will save his career and won’t salvage his historic record, not least because even though Netanyahu wants to take credit for what happened over the last few days, a lot of people realise it’s not because of Netanyahu – he barely gave the OK for these operations – it’s actually the much maligned intelligence, security and [military] services. Ultimately, I think Israelis will credit them rather than Netanyahu.”

Any rise in popularity, however temporary, nonetheless underlines once again that Mr Netanyahu, who many thought would be deposed in a matter of months after October 7, has been one of the most resilient politicians in the first quarter of the 21st century.

Israeli elections are not due until 2026, according to the usual schedule, and there are relatively few ways a sooner vote could be called.

“For there to be early elections part of the coalition would have to turn against him or if he fails to pass the budget by the end of march, which is still six months away,” Mr Pfeffer said.