Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking during the UN General Assembly. Getty
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking during the UN General Assembly. Getty
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking during the UN General Assembly. Getty
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking during the UN General Assembly. Getty

Netanyahu's popularity in Israel likely to rise after Hassan Nasrallah assassination


Thomas Helm
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After two weeks of attacks on Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, Israel’s beleaguered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can expect a boost in popularity despite trailing in polls for almost a year after the October 7 attacks, analysts have told The National.

Recent polls suggested that Mr Netanyahu was already seeing a spike in ratings as Israel intensified attacks on Hezbollah. These have included heavy bombardments and a widespread deadly sabotage of communication devices, which have killed more than 1,000 civilians. The assassination of the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday was likely to add to Mr Netanyahu’s popularity, the experts said, although how durable the boost will be is uncertain.

The flurry of Israeli assaults on Lebanon come at a time of great uncertainty about the future of Israel's campaign in Gaza and 11 months of tit-for-tat strikes between Hezbollah and Israel in the north, which have depopulated parts of northern Israel and forced more than 60,000 people to evacuate, a humiliating security failure for Mr Netanyahu’s government.

A protester holds a picture of late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. EPA
A protester holds a picture of late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. EPA

Israeli pollster Dahlia Scheindlin told The National she predicts some rise in support for Mr Netanyahu in the coming days because the assassination makes it look like “Israel is taking back the initiative and returning to an image of the country that Israelis like to remember about themselves: that they can outsmart enemies on the battlefield and respond to very serious public demand to retake sovereign Israeli territory in the north”.

It remains to be seen how long this would last, Ms Scheindlin said, highlighting that a languishing military campaign in Gaza “is still dragging the country down and it doesn’t play well for [Netanyahu] in surveys”.

“There’s no strategy, no plan, no day after, no alternative leadership that Netanyahu is willing to at least discuss or reveal. So, I think he won’t be able to escape the legacy of October 7 and what it’s done to the situation.”

In the October 7 attacks, Hamas entered southern Israel where 1,200 people were killed and 251 people were abducted into Gaza. In the year since, about 41,600 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza as the Israeli military launched a bombardment which has levelled most cities in the enclave and left millions displaced.

Anshel Pfeffer, who wrote a biography of the prime minister, said he did not think the rise in popularity would be “more than temporary because he’s not getting away from any of [Israel’s] core problems”.

“The war in Gaza isn’t ending and the war in Lebanon may well turn out to be a quagmire despite this initial success. The bigger issue is that Israelis still blame [Netanyahu] for October 7 and Israel being so divided before it. He’s going to try to frame [the assassination] in a kind of Churchillian narrative, as if we went through this period of blood, sweat and tears but now we’re coming out on top,” he added.

Palestinian children play next to an unexploded Israeli missile in the Gaza Strip. EPA
Palestinian children play next to an unexploded Israeli missile in the Gaza Strip. EPA

“I don’t think in the long run this will save his career and won’t salvage his historic record, not least because even though Netanyahu wants to take credit for what happened over the last few days, a lot of people realise it’s not because of Netanyahu – he barely gave the OK for these operations – it’s actually the much maligned intelligence, security and [military] services. Ultimately, I think Israelis will credit them rather than Netanyahu.”

Any rise in popularity, however temporary, nonetheless underlines once again that Mr Netanyahu, who many thought would be deposed in a matter of months after October 7, has been one of the most resilient politicians in the first quarter of the 21st century.

Israeli elections are not due until 2026, according to the usual schedule, and there are relatively few ways a sooner vote could be called.

“For there to be early elections part of the coalition would have to turn against him or if he fails to pass the budget by the end of march, which is still six months away,” Mr Pfeffer said.

Results

1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner Al Suhooj, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Khalifa Al Neyadi (trainer)

2pm Handicap (TB) 68,000 (D) 1,950m

Winner Miracle Maker, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer

2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner Mazagran, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar

3pm Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,400m

Winner Alla Mahlak, Adrie de Vries, Rashed Bouresly

4pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,200m

Winner Hurry Up, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m

Results

5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 1,000m, Winner: Hazeem Al Raed, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)

5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 85,000 (D) 1,000m, Winner: Ghazwan Al Khalediah, Hugo Lebouc, Helal Al Alawi

6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Dinar Al Khalediah, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi.

6.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Faith And Fortune, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.

7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Only Smoke, Bernardo Pinheiro, Abdallah Al Hammadi.

7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: AF Ramz, Saif Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi.

8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: AF Mass, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.

Stormy seas

Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.

We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice. 

Stage 3 results

1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 4:42:33

2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:03

3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:30

4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ

5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe         

6 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates  0:01:56

General Classification after Stage 3:

1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 12:30:02

2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07

3  Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:35

4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40

5  Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe

6 Wilco Kelderman (NED) Team Sunweb)  0:02:06

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1am – Early prelims

2am – Prelims

4am-7am – Main card

7:30am-9am – press cons

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Updated: September 30, 2024, 9:12 AM