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Shortly after Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza, in response to the October 7 attack, Iran-backed militias across the Middle East announced a “unity front” to support their Palestinian ally, focusing mainly on coordinating attacks against Israeli targets.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemen's Houthis, and Iraqi factions established a daily co-ordination process through a joint command, launching unprecedented attacks from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean to pressure Israel to ease its devastating Gaza offensive.
Nearly a year after the war began with Hamas's attacks on Israel, the Tehran-led front appears weakened.
Whether it's a tactic or a necessity following Israel's recent escalation against Hezbollah – which dealt significant blows, including to its communication capabilities – what began as a powerful united campaign that disrupted shipping lanes, struck Tel Aviv, and launched hundreds of rockets and drones against Israel, now looks disjointed and stalled.
Sources close to Hezbollah, Yemen's rebels, and Iraqi armed groups insist the front is still active, but admit that communication and co-ordination have been disrupted for various military and political reasons.
"The Axis of Resistance has pre-prepared scenarios to deal with challenges, and those are sometimes modified according to the developments of the confrontation and circumstances," explained a source close to Hezbollah.
Yet, the situation on the ground seems far more complicated.
On Monday, Israel launched a fierce bombing campaign against Hezbollah, carrying out more than 1,600 strikes on the first day alone. The strikes reportedly destroyed many of the group's launch pads and weapons but also resulted in the deaths of more than 550 people, including dozens of women and children, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of citizens in Lebanon.
The attack followed the explosion of thousands of booby-trapped pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah members over two consecutive days, killing dozens. It happened shortly after Israel announced a shift in focus from Gaza to its conflict with the powerful group. Israel also managed to kill several top commanders, including the head of Hezbollah's military operations, marking a significant breach in the factions' security.
According to the Israeli government, the air assault and assassinations aim to pressure Hezbollah to cease its attacks on Israel and secure the return of tens of thousands of Israelis to northern cities and towns near the Lebanon border. Hezbollah, however, has stated that it will continue its operations until a ceasefire in Gaza is achieved, despite failed negotiations, primarily due to Israel's insistence on occupying a southern corridor along the Egyptian border.
To increase the pressure, Israel's military chief stated on Wednesday evening that the army is ready for further action, instructing troops to prepare for a potential "entry" into Lebanon.
While Hezbollah continued launching missiles and drones at Israeli targets, including an intelligence centre near Tel Aviv on Wednesday, there was little to no response from Iran and its allied factions.
"So far, the resistance in Lebanon is carrying out strikes deep into enemy territory," the source close to Hezbollah told The National, while stressing that "there is continuing and continuous co-ordination among the key members of the axis, including Tehran".
'Diplomatic attack'
The shocking assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in a heavily guarded guesthouse in the Iranian capital in July sent shock waves across the region, with all eyes on Iran's reaction as it vowed revenge. However, the attack came at a critical time for Tehran, already under severe US sanctions, while the regional powerhouse was still recovering from the death of its former president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash, and undergoing a transition of power to a new administration.
The new President, Masoud Pezeshkian, was quick to express his desire to mend relations with many of Iran's adversaries. This week, as Israel bombed Hezbollah, he stated at the UN General Assembly that his country is ready to resolve its nuclear standoff with the West, adding that Tehran, which founded Hezbollah in the early 80s, is open to engagement if the 2015 nuclear deal is upheld.
"It is true that the positions of the Iranian president have raised a lot of criticism among the Lebanese because they came during the escalation of the Israeli aggression. Many linked these positions to Israel's tendency towards escalation in Lebanon, considering that Tehran wants to avoid taking an action that contradicts its diplomatic attack in New York at this moment," said another source close to Hezbollah.
"Israel seemed to have seized this loophole. But if Tehran does not notice an international move, specifically a US one, to stop Israel's extensive attack on Lebanon, its behaviour may be different," stated the source.
Despite the Israeli threats, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said America and its partners are working to find a peaceful resolution, and Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters on Wednesday that a ground assault by Israeli forces to fight Hezbollah in southern Lebanon does not appear imminent.
Hours later, the US and several partners, including three Arab states, called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire to allow for negotiations and a pause to the spiralling conflict.
An Axios report on Tuesday said that Hezbollah urged Iran in recent days to launch an attack against Israel as fighting dramatically escalated, but Iran has so far refrained, quoting two Israeli officials and one western diplomat.
"The confrontation with Israel, including the current escalation in the war, is not done through messages, requests, approval and rejection," insisted the source close to Hezbollah.
"The developments of the war currently in Gaza, Lebanon and throughout the region are not managed by messages. The Quds Force is the party authorised to work and co-ordinate with the factions of the Axis of Resistance."
Iran's green light
The early attacks by the "Axis" factions would have probably pleased the late Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Qassim Suleimani, who was assassinated by the US. Suleimani, who once claimed to have been present with Hezbollah in Lebanon during the 2006 war with Israel, commanded the Quds Force, a branch of the IRGC tasked with working with irregular militia forces across the region, building Iran's proxy units as a bulwark against Israel.
Four years after the drone strike that killed him and others near Baghdad airport on January 3, 2020, his vision of an Iranian-led “united front”, from Lebanon to Yemen, looked more sensible with representatives of Iraqi militia groups – mainly the powerful Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid Al Shuhada – saying in January that they have been attending meetings inside a joint operation command in southern Lebanon with Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranians.
Months later, the Iraqi factions reached an informal truce with US forces, halting major attacks amid talks between the American and Iraqi governments on the withdrawal of US troops from the country. Though they announced the end of the truce in August, their attacks have largely diminished.
Haider Al-Lami, a member of the Political Bureau of Al-Nujaba, stated that his faction is prepared to resume attacks but only if directed by Hezbollah's leadership. He was speaking before two drones targeted the port city of Eilat in Israel on Wednesday evening. One of the drones hit a building at the port, injuring two people, while the other was intercepted, the Israeli military said.
"The Iraqi resistance entered the battle with Israel and carried out several attacks via drones. Iraqi factions will enter the direct battle[in Lebanon] if [Hezbollah leader Hasan] Nasrallah asks them to do so," he stated.
Also on Wednesday, Jawad Al Saiedi, Secretary General of the Iran-backed Movement of Building and Jihad called on volunteers to join the fight in Lebanon.
Ahmed al-Jibouri, a Sunni MP representing Iraq’s Ninewa province, warned that Israel's "aggression on Lebanon and Palestine, if it does not stop, will drag the region into a full-scale war, and Iraq is the most sympathetic and supportive of the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples".
He told The National that "this position represents all political, religious and societal orientations in Iraq, and donation campaigns for the Lebanese and Palestinian people are increasing among segments of Iraqi society".
Despite the statements and the Eilat attack, Ihsan Al Shammari, head of the Iraqi Political Thinking Centre in Baghdad, believes that Iran-backed groups have not yet received the green light from Tehran to escalate attacks against Israel to a level that would force it to reconsider its escalation in Lebanon.
"I believe the reasons for this calm are, first of all, that Iran has become more pragmatic in this war regarding Hezbollah,” Mr Al Shammari told The National. “It does not want to get deeply involved in the conflict, thus avoiding new costs from sanctions, not only from the US but potentially international ones as well. This has led Iran to reassess its position".
Furthermore, he explained, some of these factions have come to see that a calculated calm is necessary in the Iraqi landscape.
“This specific calm is based on the idea that if Israel moves to target them, it will undermine their influence – not just their military influence, but their political influence as well. This has led them to pursue this path," he added.
"However, if these factions receive a green light from Iran, they might be compelled – perhaps not all of them, but most – to engage in a battle for survival."
Yemen's Hezbollah
One of the off-script actions by Iran-backed militias in the current war has been the Houthis in Yemen, who opened an unexpected front by targeting Israel with long-range missiles and drones. They also disrupted Red Sea shipping lanes, using the Gaza war as an opportunity to boost their regional status by striking an enemy 1,600 kilometres away.
The actions of the heavily armed militant group led the US, the UK and other allies to launch a bombing campaign against Houthi positions in Yemen. In July, Israeli warplanes attacked a fuel depot at the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah, killing nine people and injuring at least 83. The air raid was in response to a drone attack on Tel Aviv that killed one and injured several others.
The bombing campaign reduced their attacks but didn't defeat them, as they remained capable of launching strikes. However, their attacks have decreased recently in the wake of Israel's escalation against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"Much like every other armed faction in the region, the Houthis have political aspirations. They want to be recognised as a legitimate authority and they want their rule over Yemen to last," said a Yemeni political source.
"Iran might push them for more military action at some point, but Tehran doesn't seem keen on that right now. The Houthis provide Iran with strategic access to the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula, and Iran won't risk putting them in significant danger. They are Tehran's new Hezbollah."
A source close to the Houthis stressed, however, that the group is keen on responding to Israel's actions in Lebanon, but "at the right time".
"Our position regarding the Israeli aggression on Lebanon is within the framework of the unity of arenas and unified fronts of the Axis of Resistance. What Yemen has offered for Palestine, it will offer for Lebanon," warned the source.
"The coming days will reveal a big surprise. A very big response from Yemen."
