Sudan army may be readying for a major offensive as calls for end of civil war intensify

Sudan's army is preparing troops, arms and military hardware for a possible major offensive to regain control of areas across the country held by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to analysts, a top army commander and sources briefed on the preparations.

They said the multi-tiered offensive might occur before the end next month's rainy season, a time when heavy rain and muddied or washed out roads significantly hinder the RSF's fighting vehicles – its primary weapon – and enable the army's warplanes to play a more effective role on the battlefield.

The aim is to reverse the RSF's significant battlefield gains in the capital Khartoum, the western region of Darfur, Kordofan in the south and the large swathes of territory south of the capital, including the vital agricultural regions of Al Jazeera and Sennar.

This fits with the rhetoric often repeated by army chief Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and his top aides that they would continue to fight until victory.

The strongest hint that a major army operation may soon take place has come from a top aide to Gen Al Burhan, who is also Sudan's de facto military ruler.

Speaking on Wednesday at a graduation ceremony for volunteers, Gen Yasser Al Atta said: “Thanks be to God, we have made much good progress. The fighters we have trained and equipped are ready to decide this battle.

“We hear about negotiations here and there … but now, with our enhanced capabilities, we can realise our glorious slogan of 'Abel bas',” said Gen Al Atta, using the Sudanese Arabic slang for “only wiping them out.”

The sources said the army has already cut off many of the RSF's suspected supply routes from some of Sudan's neighbours like Chad and the Central African Republic.

Arms and other military hardware have meanwhile been flowing in recent months into the hands of the army, the result of discreet procurement drives abroad or provided by regional powers siding with Gen Al Burhan, said the sources, who cited Iran and Turkey among the key contributors.

The army is already known to have recently taken delivery of Iranian-made drones. Turkey, on the other hand, is known to be eyeing a naval facility on Sudan's Red Sea coastline.

Moreover, the army has recently embraced secure communication modes to prevent the RSF or its foreign supporters from eavesdropping, according to the sources. It has also allowed large numbers of former service members to return to active duty and trained thousands of civilian volunteers.

Osman Al Mirghany, a prominent Sudanese analyst with close links to the army, said he had no confirmation from the army of an imminent offensive but that he has heard from “well-placed” sources inside Sudan that plans for one were under way.

He also cast doubt on whether Gen Al Burhan had a genuine desire to resume peace negotiations in the near future. The army chief, he explained, has not deviated from his oft-repeated stand that he would only negotiate the surrender of the RSF, which he brands as a treasonous and mutinous militia.

“If a major offensive is to take place, it will most likely be before the end of the rainy season in mid-October,” predicted Mr Al Mirghany.

News of the army's imminent offensive comes at a time of stepped up calls by world powers and the UN for an end to the civil war in Sudan, which broke out in April 2023 after months of tension between the army and the RSF over their mandate in a hoped-for democratic Sudan boiled over.

A series of ceasefires brokered by the US and Saudi Arabia in the war's early days had been ignored or proved short-lived. The army had meanwhile boycotted several international initiatives to negotiate an end to the war, insisting the RSF must first implement a May 2023 deal reached in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on the protection of civilians.

Both the army and the RSF are accused of war crimes in the conflict, which has created the world's biggest displacement crisis. The fighting has forced more than seven million people to flee their homes, joining another three million displaced by previous bouts of civil strife in the vast Afro-Arab nation. At least three million have crossed the border to seek refuge in Sudan's neighbours since the war broke out.

Gen Al Burhan is due in New York next week to address the UN General Assembly. Late on Wednesday, he said the military-backed Sudanese government was open to co-operating with diplomatic efforts to end the war and place the country on the path to security and stability.

“I look forward to deepen this conversation with US officials during my participation next week in the United Nations' General Assembly,” he said.

Gen Mohamed Dagalo, the RSF commander and Gen Al Burhan's one-time ally, affirmed the readiness of the paramilitary to resume negotiations to end the war.

“We reaffirm our commitment to ceasefire negotiations. We believe that the path to peace lies in dialogue, not random violence, and we will continue to engage in peace processes to secure a future free from fear and suffering for all Sudanese civilians,” Gen Dagalo said on X.

However, both generals traded blame for a failure to end the conflict that has killed more than 12,000 people, accusing each other of committing abuses. The actual death toll is believed to be much higher.

Nearly 25 million Sudanese – half the population – are facing acute hunger as a result of the war. Famine was declared last month in a camp for the displaced housing some 500,000 people in Darfur.

US-led mediators said last month that they had secured guarantees from both parties at talks in Switzerland to improve access for humanitarian aid, but the Sudanese army's absence from the discussions had hindered progress.

Raising pressure on the warring parties to return to negotiations, US President Joe Biden on Tuesday called on them to “re-engage” in peace talks and facilitate humanitarian access.

“I call on the belligerents responsible for Sudanese suffering – the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – to pull back their forces, facilitate unhindered humanitarian access, and re-engage in negotiations to end this war,” Mr Biden said in his most direct comment to date on the war.

“Let it be clear: the United States will not abandon our commitment to the people of Sudan who deserve freedom, peace, and justice,” he added.