Israel puts peace prospects in doubt with new war goal on Lebanon front

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Israel's government has declared the return of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north a key objective of the war it has been waging against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon since October.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set out his aim after an overnight security cabinet meeting held hours after a visit by US envoy Amos Hochstein, aimed at de-escalating tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border.

So far, Mr Netanyahu has referred to three war objectives: destroying Hamas, returning hostages seized by the group during its raids from Gaza into southern Israel on October 7, and ensuring that Palestinian enclave would not pose a future threat to Israel's security.

“The safe return of the residents of the north to their homes” is now an official war goal, the Prime Minister's office said on X.

“Israel will continue to act to achieve this goal.”

The so-called goal is a setback to US and European efforts to prevent the near daily exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli military from escalating into a full-blown war.

The Iran-backed group began its attacks on October 8 in support of its ally Hamas, and has vowed to continue until Israel halts its war in Gaza. Efforts to mediate a ceasefire in Gaza have failed so far, with the US saying it planned to table another proposal shortly.

However, the leader of the Palestinian group said it had the resources to sustain its fight against Israel, with support from Iran-backed regional allies.

Yahya Sinwar, who last month replaced assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, said in a letter to the group's Yemeni allies that “we have prepared ourselves to fight a long war of attrition.”

Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said at the weekend that the group “has a high ability to continue” fighting despite losses, noting “the recruitment of new generations” to replace dead fighters.

Israel and Hezbollah cross border attacks intensify - in pictures

Israel claims to have largely eliminated the threat from Hamas after more than 11 months of fighting and has turned its attention to its northern front. In talks with Mr Hochstein on Monday, Mr Netanyahu said that a “fundamental change” was needed on the Israel-Lebanon border.

“Israel appreciates and respects the support of the United States, but in the end will do what is necessary to maintain its security and return the residents of the north to their homes safely,” his office said.

Cross-border fighting with Hezbollah has been escalated in recent months, with fear of an all-out war peaking in August following the Israeli assassination of commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut at the end of July.

About 60,000 people were moved from their homes across northern Israel at the beginning of the war, although some residents chose to stay in the area, with about 100,000 displaced in southern Lebanon.

The cross-border violence has resulted in 623 deaths in Lebanon, mostly militants but also at least 141 civilians, according to an AFP tally.

On Tuesday, Israel's Shin Bet intelligence service said it had foiled a Hezbollah plot to assassinate a former security official, while the army claimed to have killed three militants in an air strike on southern Lebanon.

Northern border pressure

On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, authorities have announced the deaths of at least 24 soldiers and 26 civilians.

The Israeli government has been regularly criticised for what officials and displaced residents have said is inaction to return them to their homes.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu faces mounting pressure from his coalition partners and centre-right supporters to restore calm in the northern region,” said former Israeli Intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed.

“Netanyahu's supporters believe that Hezbollah will never really adhere to the buffer zone provisioned in UNSC Resolution 1701 (which stipulates that Hezbollah forces should remain north of the Litani River) unless it is dealt a decisive blow in the immediate future.”

While initial fears of a full-scale war subsided last month, Israeli officials have hinted at further action against Lebanon in recent weeks, with Defence Minister Yoav Gollant telling Mr Hochstein time is “running out” to make a deal with Hezbollah.

“The only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes will be via military action,” the Israeli Defence Ministry said in a statement following the meeting.

Reported disagreements over a war with Lebanon has also fuelled rumours of a cabinet shake-up, with Israeli media outlets reporting the Mr Netanyahu is set to replace Mr Gallant with former Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar.

Despite Mr Gallant's comments to Mr Hochstein, he is seen as taking a more conservative stance on an all-out war with Israel's northern neighbour.

Meanwhile, Mr Sa'ar has opposed any ceasefire deal in Gaza – prompting worry from hostage families and diplomats that the war in Gaza will continue.

While the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said his appointment would be a “death sentence” for the hostages, European ambassadors told Haaretz they have “no reason for optimism”.

“We've seen very clear statements from him on this issue, and they left us no reason for optimism,” said the unnamed European ambassador. “It will be very frustrating if we find ourselves working with an Israeli defence minister who opposes such a deal.”

Mr Sa'ar is expected to receive veto powers on Israel's controversial judicial reforms, which sparked mass protests last year, and will also work with the prime minister to replace army chief-of-staff Herzl Halevi, according to local media reports.

As the war in Gaza nears its first anniversary, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to arrive in Cairo on Tuesday for another round of efforts to revive ceasefire talks.

The US is working with mediators on its latest proposal to end the war, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Monday.

Strikes on central Gaza have intensified in recent days, with dozens reportedly killed in strikes on Gaza city and the central Bureij refugee camp on Tuesday.

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