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The continuing cross-border conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s armed Hezbollah party is “just another episode” in a lengthy war of attrition as long as a ceasefire in Gaza remains elusive, analysts said.
“Hezbollah lost deterrence” after its response to Israel’s assassination of senior commander Fouad Shukr in July, said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Centre.
Israel’s assassination of Shukr in the densely populated Beirut suburb of Dahieh also killed five civilians and an Iranian military commander. It was the second such targeted killing in Dahieh, a densely populated southern suburb of Beirut – the first being the assassination of Hamas deputy leader Saleh Al Arouri in January.
A day after Mr Shukr’s killing, Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. The back-to-back assassinations elicited fears that regional war would erupt as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed retaliation that would usher in a “new phase” of the multifront conflict with Israel that would make it “weep” for its actions, and Iran also promised a major retaliation.
The international community immediately gathered to prevent war. A flurry of diplomatic initiatives took place in the background while the US sent air carriers and warships to the Middle East in preparation for a major escalation.
So far, Israel’s numerous assassinations of IRGC commanders, senior Hezbollah commanders, and Hamas leaders since October have been met by Iran and Hezbollah with calculated restraint. Iran has yet to reply, but when Hezbollah retaliated against Mr Shukr’s assassination in late August, it was by launching a large-scale attack of over 320 Katyusha rockets at 11 Israeli military sites.
Although Hezbollah has repeatedly assured that it is not seeking an all-out war, taking pains to maintain a contained conflict with Israel “and paying a heavy price in the process”, said Mr Hage Ali, adding the group’s response to Mr Shukr’s death remained a far cry from public expectation.
As a result, Hezbollah has ultimately failed to deter Israel from assassinating high-value targets or otherwise escalating the conflict, Mr Hage Ali explained.
Earlier this week, two civilians – one of whom was a contractor for the UN Peacekeeping Force in Lebanon – were killed in an Israeli strike on their vehicle as it drove through the southern Lebanese town of Naqoura. The Israeli military did not comment on the attack.
But the incident was a reminder to Lebanese and Israeli residents alike that the conflict, although contained, remains far from over, and that tens of thousands of displaced people on either side of the border would not be returning home anytime soon.
It was also a reminder that “right now this war is not at all confined or limited on Israel’s side, it’s only confined on Hezbollah’s side”, according to Mr Hage Ali. “Strategically, Hezbollah has to establish some form of deterrence before the war ends. But the timing is not on their side yet.”
But Joseph Bahout, director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, says that although the Lebanese party may have lost the ability to deter Israel in the short run, they are playing a “long game of attrition”.
“We are in a war of attrition. It’s a very long one playing across many intertwined but separate theatres,” he said. “The [conflict on the Lebanon-Israel front] is oscillating between high and low heat but with time the risk of slipping towards a global confrontation is ever present.
“Right now Hezbollah doesn't want to widen war. They responded in a way that was calibrated so that both parties were happy with the response.”
Mr Bahout said both Hezbollah and Israel were satisfied with the episode’s end – Hezbollah, because it implemented its anticipated retaliation, and Israel, because it would not have to escalate further in response to Hezbollah’s retaliation.
“The people who understand military strategy know that a balance is still there. For Israel it won't be an easy war with Lebanon,” he said. Israel has to consider numerous factors. “There is a crisis in its military class, and a large debate around the country’s priorities: freeing the hostages, the continuing war and occupation of Gaza, the front against Hezbollah in northern Israel, and Iran.”
“So the question is: How much does [Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu want to widen the war until he gets to Iran, and how willing are the Americans willing to follow along and go into an issue that is not only in south Lebanon and Gaza but the entire region?” Mr Bahout said.
For now, Hezbollah’s retaliation to Mr Shukr’s assassination has “concluded this episode. Now we move on to the next season.”
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ICC match referee: Andy Pycroft (ZIM)
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Their favourite city: Dubai
Their favourite food: Khaleeji
Their favourite past-time : walking on the beach
Their favorite quote: ‘we rise by lifting others’ by Robert Ingersoll
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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Remembers a time when medicines from India were purchased per kilo
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Manchester United v Everton
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Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
