Jordan entangled by risk of escalation between Israel and Iran

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A threat of military escalation between Iran and Israel places Jordan in the difficult position where it must maintain a balance between its vocal pro-Palestinian stance while abiding by its obligations as signatory to an almost four-decade peace treaty with Israel.

The equilibrium King Abdullah II seeks to keep is central to preserving more than five decades of internal stability which was last shaken in 1970, when civil war resulted in the expulsion of the Palestine Liberation Organisation to Lebanon.

A large proportion of the kingdom’s population of 10 million people are of Palestinian origin, while the rest are mainly descendants of tribes that were present when the kingdom was founded as a British protectorate in 1921.

Members of the tribes make up the security forces and the bulk of government, but popular anger at Israeli operations in Gaza is felt across the population.

In international circles, Jordan is seen as a rare beacon of stability in the Middle East. It is one of the largest recipients of US and European aid, including hundreds of millions of dollars allocated for proposed infrastructure and green energy projects.

This support is a result of the country's position as a moderate, pro-western state, a position boosted by the October 1994 peace treaty with Israel, making Jordan the second country, after Egypt, to sign such an agreement with the country it was technically at war with.

The peace treaty obliges both sides to counter cross-border infiltration and other perceived threats to each other's security. This element is especially important in the current regional context.

Intercepting attacks

During the Iranian attack on Israel in April, Jordan shot down some of the missiles and drones that flew over its airspace, on the premise that it would not allow the country to become a battleground for other conflicts. This prompted domestic criticism of Jordan's de facto defence of Israel as it waged war in Gaza.

One of the missiles fell near a southern suburb of Amman, but there were no casualties. Before the attack, Fars news agency, affiliated to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quoted an Iranian official as saying that if Jordan interferes it will be attacked.

The region is bracing for another Iranian response to Israel, this time over the July 31 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Days after the killing, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited Iran and urged de-escalation, shortly after cautioning that Jordan will not become a battle theatre in any conflict between Iran and Israel, warning it "will confront any violation to its airspace".

But Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Mr Safadi that the assassination of Mr Haniyeh was a "major mistake" and that it "will go unanswered."

A diplomat who regularly meets Jordanian officials said that since Mr Haniyeh’s assassination, the kingdom has discounted the possibility for a ceasefire in Gaza, and accelerated its preparations in case of a regional war.

“They have been very clear in that Israel is the source of escalation,” the diplomat told The National.

“But they have no option except to respond to any new Iranian violation. The nature of their alliance with Washington so requires. Iranian missiles might also miss and hit populated areas.”

Saud Sharafat, a former senior official in Jordanian intelligence, said that Jordan’s pro-Iranian detractors are making it appear that without Jordan, "Israel would be bombed to the stone age”.

Mr Sharafat, who leads the Shorufat Centre for Globalisation and Terrorism Studies in Amman, said the tension has highlighted the paradox Jordan is facing – pursuing a foreign policy that supports the Palestinian struggle while keeping in mind that it cannot afford to "slip into a war with Israel."

“We cannot become a firing range in this conflict,” he said about the possibility of Iranian projectiles missing their target and landing in Jordan.

With Jordanian officials signalling that the country has limited means to stop Iranian missiles on its own, the US's help will once again be crucial, said Mr Sharafat. The country signed a defence pact with Washington in 2022, and is part of the Area of Responsibility of the US Central Command.

On Monday, King Abdullah visited the country’s crisis centre, accompanied by his high ranking security aides. The underlying message was that the kingdom is equipped to deal with violent threats, although official media reported that the king listened to a briefing about the centre’s capabilities to deal with food supply disruptions and earthquakes.

Palestinian support

Jordan has long argued that its talks with the parties involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict serves the Palestinians. Another diplomat said this was made evident by recent closed-door discussions about a possible international force being sent to Gaza once the war is over.

The diplomat, who was at a meeting with King Abdullah last month, said that the monarch insisted that such a force should also be deployed to the occupied West Bank to protect Palestinians there from repeated Israeli incursions and rising settler violence.

The proposal, as far as the West Bank is concerned, is a “no go” for the Israelis, according to the diplomat.

This time, there has been less domestic criticism of the intention to deter any new Iranian attack than there was in April. Authorities have increased their suppression of dissent, including public opposition to the country's Gaza war policy.

Over the past months, security forces have dispersed protests near the Israeli embassy and have shown little tolerance to demands for the end of the peace treaty.

At the start of the Gaza war, voices emerged on Jordanian social media, hinting at a need to open an alternative front enabling the launching of operations from Jordan, or at least using the country as a route to send arms to the besieged enclave. Many of those who made the call were linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, but among them were also independent civil figures.

This idea was then reinforced by appeals made by senior Hamas figure Khaled Meshaal to Jordanian tribes to join the war. The appeal struck a sensitive social and political chord, and was seen by many nationalists as an attempt to undermine the kingdom's cohesion.

Authorities intensified security along the border with Israel to ensure and banned gatherings in the area as a safety precaution to avoid any violations of the peace treaty.

But Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Monday on X that illicit weapons are flowing across the border. He accused the IRGC of "collaborating with Hamas operatives in Lebanon to smuggle weapons and funds into Jordan with the aim of destabilising the regime".

Mr Katz, a member of Prime Minister's Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party, said the weapons are then smuggled to the occupied West Bank "to create a pro-Iranian Islamic terror front."

The comments came after the public criticism of Jordan's approach to the Gaza war had quietened.

Mr Safadi said “disinformation by radical Israeli officials” does not detract from Israel’s "continued aggression on Gaza”, in an apparent response to Mr Katz.

“No propaganda campaigns, no lies, no fabrications can cover that,” Mr Al Safadi said on X.

The anger at Israel, both official and popular, has not fundamentally affected Jordan's vaunted internal stability.

But the displays of resolve, both against Israel and Iran, underpins a widely shared view in Jordan that the risks are high for the kingdom as the region reaches yet another crucial moment.

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