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The US could struggle to deter Iran and protect its forces and allies in the current Middle East crisis due to rising global commitments, military experts have told The National.
American forces are stretched in Europe, in the midst of the Ukraine crisis, and in the Pacific, where the US has stepped up efforts to counter China’s growing influence.
In October, at the start of the Israel-Gaza war, the US rushed two aircraft carriers to the region. The carriers are the centrepiece of American naval power, each protected by several powerful warships.
The USS Dwight D Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group extended its Middle East deployment and was reinforced by the USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group.
As a regional war loomed – a conflict joined by the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and militias in Iraq – the US Navy was briefly capable of launching 200-500 air missions per day from its two carriers.
Ten months later, the effort to keep the Red Sea open following the Houthi blockade – a critical US Navy mission – has floundered.
Elsewhere, militias continue to attack American forces in Iraq and Syria, as well as allied Kurdish groups, and have been hit sporadically with US air power.
The Red Sea, transit point for about 12 per cent of global maritime trade, has seen a drop in shipping of more than 60 per cent, despite a US and UK-led air campaign to strike Houthi drones and missiles on the ground or shoot them down, alongside a supporting EU-led mission purely aimed at intercepting the weapons.
Meanwhile, additional warships and air defences that could signal to Iran to halt regional attacks have been deployed, but experts say more needs to be done.
A squadron of F-22 stealth jets – sometimes described as America's most capable fighters – has been deployed, but the same measure was taken last June, with the professed aim of deterring Iran.
Stalling sea power
“I think the way the US Navy has been deployed is sending a mixed message,” says Salvatore Mercogliano, maritime historian at Campbell University in North Carolina and former US army marine.
“Since 1990, we have used naval strength to support military operations ashore in a power projection role,” he says.
Right now, the US has several thousand troops scattered across bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, often remote outposts under regular attack.
Overwhelming air power is critical for their defence.
“Last December, we sent the Navy into the Red Sea to protect the 'Freedom of the Seas', but the result was the diversion of over half the ships that normally transit the area,” says Mr Mercogliano, who runs the What's Going on with Shipping? YouTube channel.
“Now, we have sent the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Group into the Persian Gulf, the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Group is on the way and the Harry Truman Carrier Group will be going to the Med … but there will be no forces dealing with the Houthis.
“This, to me, sends a message of short-term focus and loss of mission. We have surrendered the Red Sea to the Houthis and it is not clear if the US will use force in the same way that the Israelis did against the Houthis in July,” he says, referring to a devastating long-range Israeli air strike on oil storage in Houthi-controlled Hodeidah.
One of the reasons for this challenge, Mr Mercogliano says, is that the US Navy is overstretched, despite a record budget.
“Now with [aircraft carrier] Nimitz deactivating, the USS Kennedy late in delivery and material issues as we saw with [amphibious assault ship] Boxer, it raises questions about the effectiveness of our forces and resolve.
“It sends a mixed message and that is best demonstrated by the different deployments of the Eisenhower and the Roosevelt. How do we go from the most intense combat any naval ship has experienced since the First World War [in the Red Sea] to no presence at all?”
On Monday, the US confirmed it will start decommissioning USS Nimitz, its oldest nuclear-powered carrier launched in 1975 and one of 10 vessels in its class.
The USS John F Kennedy, one of 10 planned Ford class carriers, is now running three years behind schedule and will not be in service until mid-2025.
Other carriers in the class, including the USS Enterprise, are also running behind schedule for delivery.
The US has about 11 carriers, but only three or four are operational at a given time.
This has caused concerns of global gaps in carrier coverage, because of the immense challenge of keeping the huge nuclear-powered ships at sea and their high burden of maintenance.
Interceptors and challenging China
In the 2025 US defence budget request, the navy has asked for $10 billion dedicated to the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, to counter the “multi-domain challenge posed by the People's Republic of China”.
Experts say current Middle East commitments, without new carriers or more funding to rapidly move US forces across the ocean, can be sapped without new investment. Keeping America’s 11 carrier groups operational at sea can cost more than $20 billion per year.
In the air defence realm too, the US is seen as lagging, despite a rapid effort to catch up.
Central to that effort is the Patriot system, optimised to shoot down ballistic missiles that plunge from high altitude at several times the speed of sound.
Demand for the latest variant, which carries the PAC-3 interceptor, has soared, particularly since it has proven its worth over Ukraine and with several interceptions over the Gulf.
Currently, Lockheed Martin has ramped up efforts to produce 650 interceptor missiles per year.
To illustrate demand, Israel is a customer for the system, and Iran fired at least 120 ballistic missiles at the country in a single attack in April – almost all shot down – while Ukraine has endured attacks on a similar scale.
At sea, there has been a scramble for cheaper solutions to shoot down low-cost Houthi drones, because SM-6 interceptor missiles cost around $4 million each.
“We're in a munitions global shortage. That's just something that we're dealing with right now. There's no way that we could have predicted that the demand for interceptors and for 155mm artillery shells would have gone up to this degree a few years ago. And so production was never increased to account for that. Production and rebuilding inventories can take years," says Elizabeth Dent, a military analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank.
In this context, the US said in June that deliveries of the Patriot system to some countries would be delayed to prioritise Ukraine’s air defences, and has been in talks to transfer some of Israel’s Patriots to Ukraine – in part due to Israel’s robust local air defence production.
In August, however, priorities shifted again, with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin saying additional air defences had been sent to the Middle East ahead of an expected massive Iranian strike on Israel.
“I do think we'll come out of it at some point," Ms Dent says of the munitions shortage.
"But I think the bigger issue is the fact that we're using these interceptors that cost millions of dollars to shoot down Houthi drones that cost a fraction of that, in the thousands, so that's just not a sustainable model.”
The US and allies are currently in the early stages of fielding laser energy weapons that can shoot down drones and potentially even cruise missiles for dollars per shot. There are also drones that hunt drones in the works - but much of the technology is still being tested.
“I think it's about having more precise, less expensive options for us to utilise,” Ms Dent said.
“Even if we were to increase the amount of vessels in the region, whether it's carriers, frigates, or cruiser destroyers, that doesn't necessarily mean greater deterrence against the Houthis. The shipping companies will likely feel more comfortable because they'll have a cruiser destroyer closer to them with intercept capabilities than they would have had with fewer ships in the region," she added.
"More of those capabilities aren’t necessarily the answer in the long run.”
Profile Idealz
Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Size: (employees): 22
Investors: Co-founders and Venture Partners (9 per cent)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
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The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz S 450
Price, base / as tested Dh525,000 / Dh559,000
Engine: 3.0L V6 biturbo
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 369hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm at 1,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.0L / 100km
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs: 2018 Kia Picanto
Price: From Dh39,500
Engine: 1.2L inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Four-speed auto
Power: 86hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 122Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.0L / 100km
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
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1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
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5. Zakat
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
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Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
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Engine: Duel electric motors
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Squads
Pakistan: Sarfaraz Ahmed (c), Babar Azam (vc), Abid Ali, Asif Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Sohail, Mohammad Hasnain, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imad Wasim, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Rizwan, Shadab Khan, Usman Shinwari, Wahab Riaz
Sri Lanka: Lahiru Thirimanne (c), Danushka Gunathilaka, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Avishka Fernando, Oshada Fernando, Shehan Jayasuriya, Dasun Shanaka, Minod Bhanuka, Angelo Perera, Wanindu Hasaranga, Lakshan Sandakan, Nuwan Pradeep, Isuru Udana, Kasun Rajitha, Lahiru Kumara
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The five pillars of Islam
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
VERSTAPPEN'S FIRSTS
Youngest F1 driver (17 years 3 days Japan 2014)
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
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Schedule:
Sept 15: Bangladesh v Sri Lanka (Dubai)
Sept 16: Pakistan v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 17: Sri Lanka v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 18: India v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 19: India v Pakistan (Dubai)
Sept 20: Bangladesh v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi) Super Four
Sept 21: Group A Winner v Group B Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 21: Group B Winner v Group A Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 23: Group A Winner v Group A Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 23: Group B Winner v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 25: Group A Winner v Group B Winner (Dubai)
Sept 26: Group A Runner-up v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 28: Final (Dubai)
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
