Late-stage diplomacy intensifies to avert 'big explosion' in Middle East

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Diplomatic efforts have intensified in anticipation of retaliation by Iran and its ally Hezbollah against Israel, aiming to ensure that the response does not lead to a major escalation in the Middle East.

Last week’s assassinations of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and senior Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut have put the region on high alert and raised fears of an expansion of the current conflict into an all-out war.

Mr Shukr and an Iranian military associate were killed in an Israeli strike on a densely populated neighbourhood in Beirut's southern suburbs on Tuesday night. Three women and two children were also killed and dozens were injured.

Hours later, Mr Haniyeh was killed in an explosion at his residence in Tehran after attending the inauguration of Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Israel has acknowledged carrying out the drone strike that killed Mr Shukr but not the attack that killed Mr Haniyeh. Hezbollah and Tehran have vowed to avenge both and attack Israel.

The region is already experiencing the Israeli war in Gaza, which has escalated into a regional conflict involving states and militant groups from Yemen and Iraq to Lebanon and Syria.

“Everyone is trying to avoid the big explosion. The Lebanese government is in touch with western and Arab capitals to assess recent developments,” a Lebanese political source told The National.

Last April, Iran launched an unprecedented drone and missile barrage against Israel in a retaliatory strike to an April 1 attack on its Damascus consular section. Two senior generals were killed in the strike, which Tehran blamed on Israel.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed G7 counterparts that Iran and Hezbollah could launch attacks on Israel as soon as Monday, according to an Axios report that quoted three sources.

Mr Blinken held a conference call to co-ordinate with US partners to put pressure on Iran and Hezbollah to reduce the scale of any retaliation.

Political sources in Beirut told The National last week that the militant group and its allies in Lebanon have been indirectly offered “incentives” by western envoys to ensure that the retaliation does not lead to a full-scale war.

Two killed in Lebanon

Amid fears of escalation, the US urged its citizens to leave Lebanon and bolstered its military presence in the Middle East as a preventive measure. White House National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Finer stated the goal is to reduce regional tensions, deter attacks, and avoid broader conflict.

In a phone call with Israeli Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed his country’s “defensive force posture moves” and the focus on “protecting US forces”.

He also “stressed the importance of continuing efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region” and expressed his support for a Gaza ceasefire deal that brings the hostages home,” according to a US statement.

On Sunday, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi discussed Middle East tensions with Iranian officials in Tehran. The last time a senior Jordanian official travelled to Iran on an official visit was in 2004.

His discussions began shortly after Jordan cautioned that it would not become a battleground in any conflict between Iran and Israel.

Mr Safadi told Iranian state television that his visit was for a “brotherly dialogue” to bypass the differences between the two countries, and that Jordan wants “the [regional] escalation to end”.

Jordan has close security co-operation with Israel and the US.

“I am not here [to carry] a message to Israel, and I am not here [to carry] a message by Israel,” he said.

Iran's acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Bahrain's Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani spoke by phone about ways to de-escalate regional tensions, Bahraini news agency BNA reported.

“During the call, views were exchanged on efforts aimed at reducing tensions in the region and preventing the conflict from expanding, given its serious repercussions on regional peace, security, stability and the interests of the civilians,” said BNA.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Israeli attacks continued.

Israeli air strikes killed two people on Monday in Meiss El Jabal village in southern Lebanon, according to the Lebanese National News Agency. One of the victims was a paramedic, said the agency, which quoted Lebanese emergency services.

Hezbollah announced it launched a drone attack on northern Israel that the Israeli military said wounded two Israeli troops and set off a fire. The group said it targeted a military base in northern Israel in response to “attacks and assassinations” carried out by Israel in several villages in south Lebanon.

The Israeli military said fire services were working to put out a fire that was ignited as a result of the attack in Ayelet HaShahar.

Analysts say in a potential conflict, Israel could launch thousands of airstrikes against targets in Lebanon, many of them in civilian populated areas, in a short space of time.

The basis for this assessment is Israeli officials' own threats, and the war in Gaza where Israel dropped nearly 30,000 bombs in the first six weeks, as well as a 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah.

In the 2006 war, Israel’s air force struck 7,000 targets, mostly in civilian-populated areas hitting villages, bridges, power plants, city neighbourhoods, and Beirut airport. Hezbollah drone and rocket launching sites were also targeted, almost entirely in southern Lebanon.

Israel is also expected to launch a ground invasion of southern Lebanon in a new war.