Lebanon 'preparing for the worst' ahead of impending Israeli attack

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Lebanon’s leaders have “prepared for the worst” as the country braces for an impending Israeli retaliation following last week’s deadly strike in the occupied Golan Heights, amid extensive diplomacy to prevent a major operation.

Israel insists Lebanon’s Hezbollah group was behind last week’s strike on Majdal Shams that killed 12 teenagers and children. The Iran-backed party has denied responsibility for the attack, but Israel has vowed to retaliate harshly.

US officials told Lebanon’s leaders that an Israeli operation is inevitable, political sources in Beirut confirmed to The National on Tuesday, but that the capital would not be targeted.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has decided to respond to any Israeli retaliation for the Majdal Shams strike and has rejected diplomatic efforts to convince it otherwise, two sources – a member of parliament close to Hezbollah and a political source close to the party – said.

“All Lebanese territory is a red line. The resistance has decided to respond to any Israeli aggression, even if it does not reach Beirut,” said the MP.

“There is great international pressure to contain the repercussions of the aggression that seems imminent, but the resistance has decided to respond, and it will do so after assessing all factors,” added the MP.

Israel is trying “to embarrass the resistance in all its spectrums so that it does not respond, and this is unacceptable”, a second political source close to Hezbollah said.

The Iran-backed group has attacked Israeli targets in northern Israel and in the occupied Golan Heights as part of a wider, Iranian-led retaliation against Israel for its current war in the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 39,400 Palestinians since October 7.

Hezbollah has “responded to every attack on Lebanon for the past 10 months. It told mediators that it will keep doing so, and that is not concerned with the diplomatic assurances that Beirut won’t be the target of the Israeli strike. This matter is not up for discussion”, stressed the source.

Preparing for the worst

“Right now we are in a state of waiting. We’ll wait and see,” Member of Parliament Abdelrahman Al Bizri told The National of Lebanon’s war preparations.

“Hopefully, the worst doesn’t happen.”

“We’ve been conducting emergency drills, but these trainings aren’t happening just because we’re expecting an escalation,” Mr Al Bizri, who is a member of parliament’s health committee, explained.

“It’s part of our pre-existing emergency plan, so we’ve been conducting such drills all along.”

Lebanon’s national emergency plan was created in October in preparation for a potentially severe escalation similar to that of the 2006 July war between Israel and the powerful Hezbollah group, which devastated public infrastructure throughout the country, caused mass displacement, and killed about 1,200 Lebanese.

“We’ve ensured the preparedness of hospitals and health centres and we know the capabilities of each in terms of how many injuries they can take in, the supplies available to us, and so on,” said Mr Al Bizri.

He explained that concerns about Lebanon’s health sector crumbling under the weight of war are valid, but that “it will endure. We have the capability”.

According to him, the health sector is much stronger than it was two years ago when Lebanon was in the throes of a severe economic crisis that resulted in mass shortages of basic medicines, medical supplies, petrol and even bread throughout the country.

“It’s the most toxic kind of waiting, the kind that affects residents psychologically,” he emphasised.

South Lebanon bracing for assault

In the southern Lebanese village of Rmeich, a field hospital has been erected inside the auditorium of an elementary school since October, when the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel first erupted. The nearest hospital, in Bint Jbeil, is at least 12km away.

Rmeich temporarily housed tens of thousands of people displaced from other parts of south Lebanon during the 2006 war. Although this time displaced southerners have evacuated to major cities throughout south Lebanon and Beirut, the village remains ready for emergencies.

The field hospital has not seen much use since the cross-border violence erupted, but is there “in case”, according to Daniel Alam, a member of Rmeich municipality’s catastrophe response committee.

“We’ve had a plan in place since the very beginning,” he told The National.

“We’re not always conducting drills because we want to give the people who remained in the village a sense of normalcy – but we’re prepared.”

Hezbollah began its attacks against Israel from south Lebanon on October 8 in support of its ally Hamas in the Gaza Strip and has repeatedly conditioned a ceasefire in Gaza to stop the attacks.

The conflict has steadily escalated since then. At least 529 people – mostly fighters but at least 104 civilians – have been killed by Israel strikes on Lebanon, according to an AFP tally. Israel’s military says at least 24 civilians and 22 soldiers have been killed.

Analysts have long warned that a single “miscalculation” could tip the conflict into a full-scale war that could erupt throughout the region.

Targets in Syria

As the diplomatic activity takes place to contain Israel’s impending retaliation, Israel and Hezbollah immediately returned to a tense exchange of retaliatory strikes following Saturday’s deadly attack on Majdal Shams.

On Tuesday, Israeli planes struck two Syrian army positions near the Golan Heights in southern Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The attacks in on the strategic mountainous positions of Tel Jabieh and Tel Um Hauran bordering the Golan Heights.

It was not immediately known if there were casualties.

Hezbollah personnel participate in the manning of the two sites, which contain air defences, electronic warfare, reconnaissance, and radar equipment, upgraded by Iran in recent years, according to a member of the Syrian opposition in Amman.

“Hezbollah’s mission in the area, apart from reconnaissance, is to launch attacks on the Golan in case of pressure against it elsewhere,” he said.

The sources added that although it was not the first time that Israel struck these sites, the attacks signalled Israeli intention to keep up pressure on Hezbollah and other allies of Iran in the area.

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