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The Gaza war has spilt over into Yemen in the past 48 hours after Israel struck a main port under the control of Iran-aligned Houthi militants in retaliation for a drone attack on Tel Aviv on Friday evening.
The drone that killed one man after piercing Israeli air defences was the first fatal strike on Tel Aviv, the heartbeat of Israel’s economy, since the start of the war in October.
It also boosted the Houthis as a wild card among Iran’s regional militia allies and a potential long-term power player in the Middle East, even if Israel comes on top in the Gaza war, observers said.
“The Houthis have been wanting escalation,” Yemeni political researcher Ahmed Al Shargabi told The National, adding that it grants the group its perceived “regional legitimacy".
Mr Al Shargabi warned that if a ceasefire is not reached in Gaza, Houthi targets could expand to include US interests in the Middle East, as well as more attacks on international Red Sea shipping.
However, he added that Israel will keep retaliating by raiding Houthi areas, particularly infrastructure in Yemen.
The Israeli attack on Friday caused a huge fire in Hodeidah. Six people were killed, with Israeli media saying the attack led to the port being shut down, hampering Iranian weapons deliveries.
Western warplanes have been striking Houthi targets in Yemen since the group started attacking Red Sea shipping near Bab Al Mandeb in December.
The Houthis have also fired numerous drones and missiles at Israel, particularly targeting its Red Sea port of Eilat, but most of these attacks were intercepted, or caused few casualties, until the latest attack on Tel Aviv.
The attack on Hodeidah was the first known direct Israeli response, having previously relied on the US to take the battle to the rebel group by attacking Houthi targets in Yemen.
Ihsan Al Shammari, head of the Iraqi Political Thinking Centre in Baghdad, said the apparent failure of the US administration to strike a deal to stop the attacks on Red Sea shipping by offering incentives to the Houthis has been a main factor behind the recent escalation.
The Houthis, he said, are seeking to raise their projection of power ahead of any potential change of administration in Washington.
He said that although the attack on Hodeidah was a demonstration of strength to Iran's allies, "there is no doubt that we are seeing a different scene now".
“We no longer can talk only about Gaza or southern Lebanon, but now we can talk about four fronts: Gaza, southern Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and Iraqi armed factions,” Mr Al Shammari said.
Soon after the start of the Gaza war on October 7, Tehran and the transnational non-state groups it supports vowed to carry out a multifront offensive action against Israel. The aim, they said, was to relieve pressure on Hamas, as the group sought to survive the punishing Israeli invasion of Gaza.
The attack on Tel Aviv occurred as the Houthis maintained their Red Sea raids that have disrupted global trade, particularly traffic through the Suez Canal. The Houthis, however, have kept channels open with Saudi Arabia, which relies on the Red Sea to export a large proportion of its oil.
Riyadh is the founder of an Arab Coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015 on the side of the internationally recognised government, a year after the Houthis overran the capital Sanaa. But in the past three years Riyadh has sought a negotiated settlement with the group.
Although Saudi Arabia is an established ally of Washington, it has not participated in the US-led international coalition in the Red Sea to protect ships from Houthi attacks.
Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at Israeli think tank INSS, said the Israeli raid on Hodeidah "tells the US and the international coalition in the Red Sea that their current efforts are not doing enough".
The Houthis, Mr Guzansky said, have launched more than 220 missiles and drones at Israel over nine months. Israel, however, has retaliated against the Houthi "economic oxygen" by attacking Hodeidah, where "the flames are still burning" more than a day after the raid.
"Now they know there’s a price for what they’re doing – a high price," said Mr Guzansky, predicting more escalation.
"You cannot plan a one-off. You need a retaliation to a retaliation," he said. "Perhaps the next one will be even stronger than Hodeidah. As much as I fear that and don’t want another front to be opened, you cannot run away from it."
