Oman mosque attack expected to spur Gulf region against ISIS threat

Gunmen opening fire on worshippers at a mosque in Oman show how a terrorist cell made inroads into a peaceful Gulf nation and will lead to increased security in the region, experts said.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack which killed six people and wounded dozens, mainly Pakistani residents, at Imam Ali Mosque in Muscat on Monday night.

Experts who study extremist organisations said the more than 10-hour siege in a residential neighbourhood had all the hallmarks of the terrorist group.

“This is an unprecedented attack in Oman. No one expected this could happen and I believe many leaders and policymakers are in shock,” said Zana Gul, a lecturer in international politics at the University of Stirling in Scotland.

“Security will ramp up because this incident is a shock to the political system, not just in Oman but across the Gulf region.

“All Gulf countries have a strong, professional security apparatus that controls the region but this has shown there is a loophole.

“Governments will be more rigorous, monitor the situation more carefully and there will be an increase in security operations.”

The attack would also result in intensified security collaboration between Oman and other Gulf states, he said.

Defeated but still active

Followers of ISIS have continued to carry out isolated attacks even after the extremist group was defeated in the areas of Iraq and Syria it seized and declared its caliphate in 2014. The US-led coalition against ISIS and allied Syrian forces freed the last ISIS stronghold in 2019, marking the territorial defeat of the group.

But ISIS has claimed many attacks since in Iraq, Syria and Europe, either through sleeper cells or people acting alone, and an offshoot in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-K, has a strong presence in some areas.

Mr Gul said territorial defeat was not enough to end the ISIS threat and eliminating its ideology was crucial to limiting its ability to recruit.

“ISIS in Iraq is militarily defeated but ideologically is still there,” he said.

“They are absolutely not as powerful as they once were, but political instability, social and economic conditions provide avenues for these cells to continue to carry out dangerous acts.

“If you have a transparent government, a strong economy and employment, ISIS will not be able to recruit more candidates.”

Former US Central Command chief Gen Frank McKenzie, who oversaw the 2019 raid that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi in Syria, has also highlighted the threat posed by the ability of the terror group to attract followers through literature or the internet, saying this “may be one of the most dangerous methods that ISIS can use to generate attacks”.

The Omani government said it was ready to "confront any challenges" to its national security, in a statement issued after the shooting, and that investigations were under way to determine the motive.

Stoking tension

Mr Gul, who has published several papers on the rise of ISIS and terrorism, said a common pattern was for the group to stoke friction between communities.

The gunmen attacked the mosque in Oman on the eve of Ashura, a day sacred to Shiites.

“One of their key strategies is to divide communities, specifically Sunnis and Shias. The other reason could be that ISIS sleeper cells are trying to provoke tension between communities,” he said.

“In Oman, the Sunni and Shia sects live in tolerance and have friendly relations.”

ISIS broadcast a video claiming responsibility for the attack on Tuesday, with visuals showing three men with assault rifles raising the black ISIS flag.

Survivors told The National about people being gunned down as they ran to the mosque and worshippers shot dead as volunteers attempted to drag them to safety.

“This was a dream case for ISIS – they got the world’s attention with an attack on the most stable country in the Gulf and that is exactly what they want,” said Farea Al Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme.

“The significance is that as Oman was perceived as an island of peace and stability, this is a brutal reminder of the fact that conflicts are transnational and cross border.

“It shows how ISIS is still a threat to everyone, everywhere in the world, even in a peaceful county like Oman.”

The shooting in Muscat was a reminder of another ISIS attack on a Shiite mosque in Saudi Arabia in 2015, in which a suicide bomber killed at least 21 people.

“It is sufficient to have one incident to disrupt peace and stability in the area,” said Mr Al Muslimi, whose research focuses on Yemen and the wider Gulf region.

“As it becomes more feasible to do this, it becomes more tricky for security organisations to hunt down radicals.”