Since November, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have managed to shut down most commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which is normally a conduit for about 12 per cent of global seaborne trade.
The militants have launched scores of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at ships, as well as hundreds of drones, actions they claim are in support of Hamas. The group says it will not stop attacks until Israel ends its war in Gaza.
Recently, the Yemeni group has claimed to possess the ability to repurpose Iran’s Ghadr missile into an anti-ship role. Such capacity could prove devastating for commercial ships, as the weapon is able to carry a much larger explosive payload than drones.
The US, which is leading an aerial campaign alongside the UK and several other countries, has conducted waves of air strikes to stop these missiles and drones before they are launched, to save on intercepting them with missiles that can cost several million dollars each.
But the missiles and drones keep coming, putting into question the effectiveness of air power, including a wave of US and British strikes last week.
It is an issue that has dogged aerial campaigns since the Vietnam war, despite technological progress: seeing enemy forces from the air, interpreting movements on the ground and preparing to strike, a process known as Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR).
Finding mobile missile and drone launchers is an ongoing challenge.
From Saddam's Scuds to the Houthis
Arguably the last comparable crisis was in 1991, when Iraq under Saddam Hussein tried to draw the region into the war that followed his invasion of Kuwait, firing scores of Scud missiles from mobile launchers – a similar weapon to that used by the Houthis – at Israel.
His aim was to expand the conflict and, as with today’s US-led aerial campaign in Yemen, a coalition tried to stop this effort by destroying the missile launchers on the ground.
Comparing the two efforts provides a glimpse into how sophisticated air warfare has become, but also its limits.
During Desert Storm, the US Air Force organised air patrols over areas where Scud launchers were suspected to operate, in what was known as the Scud Hunt.
“The emphasis in the Scud Hunt was really to prevent Israel from entering the war," says Chris Pehrson, a retired US Air Force colonel, former F-111 pilot and expert on air warfare
"It was really the political messaging that we're doing everything we can to prevent these ballistic missiles from launching into Israel."
At the time, US fighter jets used a system for finding targets known as the Low-Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared for Night Pod, or Lantirn Pod. "The Scud hunt itself was very difficult," Col Pehrson says.
"The Lantirn Pod and Pave Tack on the F-111, compared to some of these newer capabilities, are really just like looking through a soda straw.”
The technology has been replaced by newer systems such as the Sniper and Dragon’s Eye, which are much more powerful and provide clearer images at long range and at night.
In Yemen today, this capacity is critical, as the Houthis have had years to practise concealing missile launch sites over vast areas of terrain.
Mobile missile and drone launching systems can be driven in and out of tunnels and camouflaged bunkers.
“The Iraqis were very good at keeping these launchers in revetments, either just a garage or a shelter, or obscured by camouflage, they would roll out and launch the missile and then go back into hiding sometimes under highway overpasses and things like that,” Mr Pehrson said.
From drones to space
Recent systems used to identify targets have developed in leaps and bounds.
These include Ground Moving Target Indicator radar (GMTI), which allows high-resolution tracking of vehicles and even people over vast areas.
GMTI technologies such as the Lynx Multi-mode Radar can track targets 75km away.
The system can be installed on drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper and it uses powerful imaging known as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), which produces pictures almost similar to photographs, rather than blips on a screen.
“Something different today is the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance [ISR] capability, the tremendous overhead assets that we have, the electronics and signals intelligence, it can really give you that broader field level, theatre level of perspective," Retd Col Pehrson says.
"And we've done a lot of intelligence prep on the battlefield as well. So we track things, we trace points of origin and supply chains."
The Houthis have shot down at least three Reaper drones, which can fly and monitor positions for up to 27 hours - considerably longer than F-18 Super Hornets used in the conflict so far, which racked up a 10 hour mission in December.
Reapers can also use Wide Area Motion Imagery - large cameras that can monitor activity in an entire town with extremely clear images.
At higher altitudes, America's RQ-4 Global Hawk drones are said to be able to survey 100,000 square kilometres of ground per day. But even at 65,000 ft, these aircraft are not invulnerable against some Houthi anti-aircraft systems such as the Sayyad-3C.
Also key in the US inventory is the E-2 Hawkeye aircraft, with powerful AN/APS-145 radar and on-board systems capable of tracking around 2,000 targets at distances over 500 kilometres.
But reconaissance is also layered - with the final layers high above Earth.
'Constant stare'
“The use of Earth observation capabilities, which include the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission, has been a key component since the dawn of the Space Age,” says John Klein, adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute and Georgetown University.
Using SAR in space, it’s possible to peer through sandstorm haze and cloud, and at night.
“Synthetic Aperture Radar is one of several multi-spectral ‘modalities’ used by space-based sensors because of the persistent all-weather aspect,” Mr Klein says.
"When SAR is used in combination with infrared imagery and radio frequency geolocation, it can provide a ‘complete picture’ of an area of interest.
“Commercial space companies see a growing demand for such multi-spectral space-based capabilities by the US government and are looking to fill this all-weather, 24/7 need."
This contributes to a long-held desired capability of the US, the “constant stare,” or ability to have a constant satellite presence over target areas.
Already, with more than 24 known military satellites and special access to commercial satellite data, the US military can image most areas of the Earth every 20 minutes, on average.
That is a huge change from 1991 when the US had only seven dedicated military satellites, obtaining imagery of a given area daily.
The upshot is a vast amount of imagery to analyse, and the US is increasingly looking at AI to assist in finding targets through vast quantities of footage and photographs, through its Project Maven - used in Yemen, according to a recent Bloomberg report.
Limits of air power
So how do the two campaigns compare? Did air power stop the Scuds and can it work in Yemen?
Historians are divided because the war ended with Saddam’s military defeat on the ground.
Scud launches were carried out about five to 10 times a day at the start of the war but dropped sharply to about one per day.
But they surged at the end, and in Yemen now the missile rate ebbs and flows.
In Iraq, as in Yemen, it has been hard for the Coalition to get an exact sense of what the Houthis have and where they are hiding it.
To keep the Red Sea open, this is only half the problem, says Michael Knights, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“The challenge is a very high bar: to reduce Houthi attacks to such a low level that insurers reduce their rates. And that may be an impossible standard using defensive strikes alone.
Mr Knights says that “air campaigns are often used by politicians to show the public that they are ‘doing something’ and imposing a cost for behaviour. But, like sanctions, air strikes are a poor replacement for giving real attention to a strategic threat".
Instead, he says any country with an interest in stopping the Red Sea crisis should look into putting more pressure on the Houthis' backer, Iran.
“More maritime interdiction is the key and going after drone and missile fabrication," Mr Knights adds.
"This is an effort to wear down the Houthi arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, and that means preventing resupply of components from Iran. That could be tighter maritime and land border policing, and it could be coercive actions against Iran to hit the upstream part of the supply chain.”
Donating your hair
• Your hair should be least 30 cms long, as some of the hair is lost during manufacturing of the wigs.
• Clean, dry hair in good condition (no split ends) from any gender, and of any natural colour, is required.
• Straight, wavy, curly, permed or chemically straightened is permitted.
• Dyed hair must be of a natural colour
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Top tips
Create and maintain a strong bond between yourself and your child, through sensitivity, responsiveness, touch, talk and play. “The bond you have with your kids is the blueprint for the relationships they will have later on in life,” says Dr Sarah Rasmi, a psychologist.
Set a good example. Practise what you preach, so if you want to raise kind children, they need to see you being kind and hear you explaining to them what kindness is. So, “narrate your behaviour”.
Praise the positive rather than focusing on the negative. Catch them when they’re being good and acknowledge it.
Show empathy towards your child’s needs as well as your own. Take care of yourself so that you can be calm, loving and respectful, rather than angry and frustrated.
Be open to communication, goal-setting and problem-solving, says Dr Thoraiya Kanafani. “It is important to recognise that there is a fine line between positive parenting and becoming parents who overanalyse their children and provide more emotional context than what is in the child’s emotional development to understand.”
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)
Sunday
Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)
Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)
Everton v Liverpool (10pm)
Monday
Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Florence and the Machine – High as Hope
Three stars
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Fixtures (all times UAE)
Saturday
Brescia v Atalanta (6pm)
Genoa v Torino (9pm)
Fiorentina v Lecce (11.45pm)
Sunday
Juventus v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Inter Milan v SPAL (6pm)
Lazio v Udinese (6pm)
Parma v AC Milan (6pm)
Napoli v Bologna (9pm)
Verona v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Monday
Cagliari v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
The specs: 2018 Ford Mustang GT
Price, base / as tested: Dh204,750 / Dh241,500
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque: 569Nm @ 4,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.3L / 100km
Specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%20turbo%204-cylinder%20%2F%202.0%20turbo%204-cylinder%20(S3)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20148bhp%20%2F%20328bhp%20(S3)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20250Nm%20%2F%20420Nm%20(S3)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20TBA%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If%20you%20go
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20regular%20flights%20from%20Dubai%20to%20Kathmandu.%20Fares%20with%20Air%20Arabia%20and%20flydubai%20start%20at%20Dh1%2C265.%3Cbr%3EIn%20Kathmandu%2C%20rooms%20at%20the%20Oasis%20Kathmandu%20Hotel%20start%20at%20Dh195%20and%20Dh120%20at%20Hotel%20Ganesh%20Himal.%3Cbr%3EThird%20Rock%20Adventures%20offers%20professionally%20run%20group%20and%20individual%20treks%20and%20tours%20using%20highly%20experienced%20guides%20throughout%20Nepal%2C%20Bhutan%20and%20other%20parts%20of%20the%20Himalayas.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.
Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella
Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"
On the menu
First course
▶ Emirati sea bass tartare Yuzu and labneh mayo, avocado, green herbs, fermented tomato water
▶ The Tale of the Oyster Oyster tartare, Bahraini gum berry pickle
Second course
▶ Local mackerel Sourdough crouton, baharat oil, red radish, zaatar mayo
▶ One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Quail, smoked freekeh, cinnamon cocoa
Third course
▶ Bahraini bouillabaisse Venus clams, local prawns, fishfarm seabream, farro
▶ Lamb 2 ways Braised lamb, crispy lamb chop, bulgur, physalis
Dessert
▶ Lumi Black lemon ice cream, pistachio, pomegranate
▶ Black chocolate bar Dark chocolate, dates, caramel, camel milk ice cream
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
More on Quran memorisation:
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
The specS: 2018 Toyota Camry
Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
The specs: 2018 Maserati GranTurismo/GranCabrio
Price, base Dh485,000 (GranTurismo) and Dh575,000 (GranCabrio)
Engine 4.7L V8
Transmission Six-speed automatic
Power 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 520Nm @ 4,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.3L (GranTurismo) and 14.5L (GranCabrio) / 100km
