The death of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi robs the clerical establishment that controls Shiite Iran of a crucial figure amid multi-pronged confrontations abroad and ahead of an expected political transition at the top.
Iranian authorities have confirmed that Mr Raisi died in a helicopter crash on Sunday. He was a potential successor-in-waiting to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as being an experienced enforcer and manager in the iron-fisted system of rule.
It was the first sudden death of a figure of such importance in Iran since the US assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani in 2020.
The choreographed funeral of Maj Gen Suleimani, attended by leaders of ideological militia proxies of Iran, was used to convey Iran’s determination to keep up its Middle East reach.
This time, however, Mr Raisi’s death has more of a domestic impact, observers say, although he played main roles, together with Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who died with him, in charting Iran’s outside posture.
The unexpected exit of the president is widely seen as improving the chances of Mr Khamenei’s son, Sayyid Mojtaba, succeeding his 85-year old father in a tightly controlled domestic scene, after authorities crushed several protest and civil disobedience movements in the last 15 years.
A father-son scenario, however, would no longer differentiate Iran from other hereditary republics in the Middle East, and could face more obstacles within the establishment, compared with Mr Raisi, who was a relative shoo-in for the role.
In Egypt, for example, the late president Hosni Mubarak could not install his son Jamal, as he faced opposition from the military before the onset of the Arab uprisings in 2010-2011.
Waiel Olwan, senior researcher at the Jusoor Centre for Studies in Istanbul, said Mr Raisi was a “special case" that will be difficult to replace.
“As the main candidate to succeed Khamenei, he had a major say on internal and external policies," Mr Alwan said.
He and Mr Amirabdollahian "were not just part of the political kitchen in Iran".
"They managed the scene," he said, putting forward two scenarios.
The least likely, he said, is internal disruption that would weaken Iran's position in the ongoing conflict with Israel and the US amid the war in Gaza.
"It will disrupt the transition and handing over the files to a new team, but no more," said Mr Alwan, who pointed out that the security apparatus remains under control.
"The mastermind [Khamenei] and [his subordinates] in the establishment remain," he added.
Mr Amirabdollahian might even leave a “more significant legacy”, than the former president, said Lebanese political analyst Joseph Daher.
He cited Mr Amirabdollahian's closeness to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which contributed to his frequent travels to Lebanon to meet Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The IRGC has fostered militant groups across the regions throughout the years, including Hezbollah, which collaborated in supporting President Bashar Al Assad in Syria's civil war and backing Iraqi security forces against ISIS militants. "Nothing has changed. The key actors in the foreign policy files, Iran’s supreme leader and the IRGC are still in place," Mr Daher said.
Hazem Ayyad, a veteran Jordanian political commentator, said replacing Tehran's foreign minister and the apparent successor to the supreme leader will create competition and temporarily "confuse the Iranian internal scene", but will not fundamentally weaken Iran abroad.
Mr Raisi, however, was seen as having built stronger relations with China, which helped withstand increased US sanctions, although some Chinese corporations have held back operations out of concern they will fall foul of US restrictions.
He was also an advocate of a tough stance on the nuclear file and in confrontations with Washington and Israel, although after more violent struggles with the US and Israel this year, Iran has pursued de-escalation.
But this has meant no let up in support for Hezbollah and the other militia players on whom Iran relies, political analyst Ali Safari said from Tehran.
“This support policy is not [made by an] individual; it is a fundamental policy within the Islamic Republic," he said.
The main impact of the helicopter crash, however, is its affect on the top of the pyramid.
Syrian political commentator Ayman Abdel Nour said unless a new figure emerges to challenge Mojtaba Khamenei, his path to power is almost assured.
“If there is a hereditary succession then the Islamic Republic will be basically transformed into a another Pahlavi empire, wearing an extremist Islamic gown.”
Nada Maucourant Atallah reported from Beirut
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
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THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
More on Quran memorisation:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
6.30pm Meydan Classic Trial US$100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
Winner Bella Fever, Dane O’Neill (jockey), Mike de Kock (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Woven, Harry Bentley, David Simcock.
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner Fore Left, William Buick, Doug O’Neill.
8.15pm Dubai Sprint Listed Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Rusumaat, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group Two $450,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Benbatl, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner Art Du Val, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
10pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Beyond Reason, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers Henderson, Johnstone, Pickford, Ramsdale
Defenders Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Coady, Godfrey, James, Maguire, Mings, Shaw, Stones, Trippier, Walker, White
Midfielders Bellingham, Henderson, Lingard, Mount, Phillips, Rice, Ward-Prowse
Forwards Calvert-Lewin, Foden, Grealish, Greenwood, Kane, Rashford, Saka, Sancho, Sterling, Watkins
Top 10 most polluted cities
- Bhiwadi, India
- Ghaziabad, India
- Hotan, China
- Delhi, India
- Jaunpur, India
- Faisalabad, Pakistan
- Noida, India
- Bahawalpur, Pakistan
- Peshawar, Pakistan
- Bagpat, India
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Company profile
Company: Rent Your Wardrobe
Date started: May 2021
Founder: Mamta Arora
Based: Dubai
Sector: Clothes rental subscription
Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The biog
Name: James Mullan
Nationality: Irish
Family: Wife, Pom; and daughters Kate, 18, and Ciara, 13, who attend Jumeirah English Speaking School (JESS)
Favourite book or author: “That’s a really difficult question. I’m a big fan of Donna Tartt, The Secret History. I’d recommend that, go and have a read of that.”
Dream: “It would be to continue to have fun and to work with really interesting people, which I have been very fortunate to do for a lot of my life. I just enjoy working with very smart, fun people.”
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Mykonos, with a flight change to its partner airline Olympic Air in Athens. Return flights cost from Dh4,105 per person, including taxes.
Where to stay
The modern-art-filled Ambassador hotel (myconianambassador.gr) is 15 minutes outside Mykonos Town on a hillside 500 metres from the Platis Gialos Beach, with a bus into town every 30 minutes (a taxi costs €15 [Dh66]). The Nammos and Scorpios beach clubs are a 10- to 20-minute walk (or water-taxi ride) away. All 70 rooms have a large balcony, many with a Jacuzzi, and of the 15 suites, five have a plunge pool. There’s also a private eight-bedroom villa. Double rooms cost from €240 (Dh1,063) including breakfast, out of season, and from €595 (Dh2,636) in July/August.
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Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
Five hymns the crowds can join in
Papal Mass will begin at 10.30am at the Zayed Sports City Stadium on Tuesday
Some 17 hymns will be sung by a 120-strong UAE choir
Five hymns will be rehearsed with crowds on Tuesday morning before the Pope arrives at stadium
‘Christ be our Light’ as the entrance song
‘All that I am’ for the offertory or during the symbolic offering of gifts at the altar
‘Make me a Channel of your Peace’ and ‘Soul of my Saviour’ for the communion
‘Tell out my Soul’ as the final hymn after the blessings from the Pope
The choir will also sing the hymn ‘Legions of Heaven’ in Arabic as ‘Assakiroo Sama’
There are 15 Arabic speakers from Syria, Lebanon and Jordan in the choir that comprises residents from the Philippines, India, France, Italy, America, Netherlands, Armenia and Indonesia
The choir will be accompanied by a brass ensemble and an organ
They will practice for the first time at the stadium on the eve of the public mass on Monday evening
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Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
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