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The strike on Iran was Israel “signalling” that it knows where the country’s nuclear research centres are, allowing it to demonstrate they are highly vulnerable to attack, security analysts have told The National.
The use of a handful of quadcopter kamikaze drones fired at an arms factory in Isfahan suggests that Israel can hit with impunity at the heart of Iran’s military’s machine, they said.
Instead of launching one of its medium-range Jericho II missiles, or a strike by its stealthy F-35 fighter-bombers, Israel has also calibrated its retaliation that does not invite a spiral of escalation.
This, analysts have said, suggests that the country has listened to its allies’ advice on restraint but also highlights that it can strike the nuclear installations with much greater force if Iran attempts a “break-out” to develop a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear signalling
As well as military manufacturing, Isfahan is a key site for Iran’s nuclear programme, leading to suggestions that while Israel attacked a drone factory it was also stating that it could easily strike elsewhere.
The question is how does Iran respond
Matthew Levitt
“This was a direct response to Iran’s attack on Saturday but it’s also because Isfahan is one of the locations of Iran's nuclear development and research facilities,” said Megan Sutcliffe, an Iran expert at Sibylline, an intelligence company.
“The fact that Israel did target this particular location, given its proximity to Isfahan’s facilities for nuclear development was a signalling attempt from Israel, stating that ‘we know where those facilities are, we can breach your air defence and we have the capacity to hit these places.”
Poke big holes
Matthew Levitt, director of the counterterrorism programme at the Washington Institute think tank, said he interpreted US President Joe Biden’s urging that Israel should “take the win” after Saturday’s attack, actually meant “don't hit the nuclear facilities, don't send 150 bomber sorties and let's not start an actual war here”.
It appears that Israel had abided by this in sticking to the drone factory.
Dr Levitt added that any retaliation had to demonstrate that “people need to understand you cannot attack Israel directly and they will not allow that precedent to stand”.
It also showed that Israel “can poke big holes exactly where they're intended to be, which sends a greater message,” added the former US Treasury official.
That the attack also came at night, when very few workers would have been on site, suggested that the Israelis wanted to “do it at a time and in a way that minimises actual human casualties”.
Sweet spot
The strike hit a “sweet spot” in which Israel “sent a clear message” by evading Iran’s air defences and striking a military target, said Richard Pater, director of the Bicom Israeli think tank.
“This shows Israel has the capacity to attack, give Iran a bloody nose, but [it did so without] doing anything that significant so that the Iranian response can say ‘there’s nothing to see here’.”
He added that it meant both sides could “draw a line under this latest episode … until the next time” as Iran was not going to stop its nuclear programme.
That meant it was key for Israel to retain the international allies, that proved so successful in preventing Saturday’s attack, so that if Iran began developing a nuclear weapon there could a “a coalition strike to prevent them”.
Launch site
Isfahan lies about 1,600km away from Tel Aviv and the conventional military approach would have been an aircraft bombardment, missile attack or even its secret submarine launch capability.
Instead it appears the Israelis decided on a less conspicuous route by using quadcopters against the factory that makes the Shahed 136 kamikaze drones – 170 of which were fired against Israel – sent a message that its intelligence knew precisely where to strike.
It remains unclear where the drones were launched from. It could have been either Israeli operatives or more likely Iranian dissidents working for Mossad, flying them from within Iran itself.
Other potential routes were direct from Israel, with flight paths cleared through Syria and Iraq or some speculation that they could have come from Azerbaijan, which is pro-Israeli and has a border with Iran.
However, in January last year Israel also struck an Isfahan military plant using drones apparently flown from within Iran.
A western security source, connected to Israel, said the attack sent a “strong statement” that the country could “strike with precision deep inside the Islamic republic”.
Cyber revenge
The Israelis had done “the absolute bare minimum to placate its domestic audiences” as no response would have been “unacceptable” while it also messaged Iran that it could strike at the centre of its military sites, added the source.
However, it remains unclear whether Israel’s low-key response will satisfy hardliners within the war cabinet who have demanded Iran’s nuclear programme be wiped out.
Sources suggest that Israel may yet strike back with targeted assassinations of key Iranian scientists or commanders or may have already planted a major cyber attack to cripple its critical infrastructure.
“The question is how does Iran respond,” said Dr Levitt. “Do they fire something directly Israel again? Do they hijack a ship? There’s a thousand ways for people to do things that are much lower profile.”
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Europa League group stage draw
Group A: Villarreal, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Astana, Slavia Prague.
Group B: Dynamo Kiev, Young Boys, Partizan Belgrade, Skenderbeu.
Group C: Sporting Braga, Ludogorets, Hoffenheim, Istanbul Basaksehir.
Group D: AC Milan, Austria Vienna , Rijeka, AEK Athens.
Group E: Lyon, Everton, Atalanta, Apollon Limassol.
Group F: FC Copenhagen, Lokomotiv Moscow, Sheriff Tiraspol, FC Zlin.
Group G: Vitoria Plzen, Steaua Bucarest, Hapoel Beer-Sheva, FC Lugano.
Group H: Arsenal, BATE Borisov, Cologne, Red Star Belgrade.
Group I: Salzburg, Marseille, Vitoria Guimaraes, Konyaspor.
Group J: Athletic Bilbao, Hertha Berlin, Zorya Luhansk, Ostersund.
Group K: Lazio, Nice, Zulte Waregem, Vitesse Arnhem.
Group L: Zenit St Petersburg, Real Sociedad, Rosenborg, Vardar
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
SHAITTAN
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Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More on Quran memorisation:
if you go
The flights
Air France offer flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi to Cayenne, connecting in Paris from Dh7,300.
The tour
Cox & Kings (coxandkings.com) has a 14-night Hidden Guianas tour of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. It includes accommodation, domestic flights, transfers, a local tour manager and guided sightseeing. Contact for price.
Racecard
6pm: The Pointe - Conditions (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m
6.35pm: Palm West Beach - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (T) 1,800m
7.10pm: The View at the Palm - Handicap (TB) Dh85,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.45pm: Nakeel Graduate Stakes - Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
8.20pm: Club Vista Mare - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,900m
8.55pm: The Palm Fountain - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m
9.30pm: The Palm Tower - Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,600m
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Specs – Taycan 4S
Engine: Electric
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 571bhp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh431,800
Specs – Panamera
Engine: 3-litre V6 with 100kW electric motor
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 455bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: from Dh431,800
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
How to join and use Abu Dhabi’s public libraries
• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.
• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.
• In order to borrow books, visitors must join the service by providing a passport photograph, Emirates ID and a refundable deposit of Dh400. Members can borrow five books for three weeks, all of which are renewable up to two times online.
• If users do not wish to pay the fee, they can still use the library’s electronic resources for free by simply registering on the website. Once registered, a username and password is provided, allowing remote access.
• For more information visit the library network's website.
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
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Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
