A year of war between Sudan’s army and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has pushed the vast Afro-Arab nation closer to the abyss, with more factions joining the conflict and hopes for a political settlement rapidly diminishing.
The conflict is widely viewed as a fight for control between two previously allied generals – army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commander Gen Mohamed Dagalo.
The first anniversary of the start of the war on April 15 caps 12 months of death, displacement, hunger and alleged war crimes on both sides.
The impact of the war is perhaps most clearly seen in videos posted online of the usually bustling streets of the capital Khartoum, now almost completely deserted against a backdrop of badly damaged buildings and burnt out cars.
To experts and many ordinary Sudanese, the scars caused by the almost wanton brutality of the war may take decades to heal.
And the worst may be yet to come.
“Things are getting worse for everyone,” said Noaman Ishaq, a political activist from Omdurman, a historical city that is part of the larger Khartoum area. He fled to Atbara, north of the capital, eight months after the war broke out.
“I have seen so many people getting killed before my own eyes and I myself was detained three times, twice by the RSF and once by the army. Now that I fled Omdurman, I feel free, but I lost my home.”
Emboldened by a recent spate of battlefield gains in the capital, the army appears determined to end the war militarily, regardless of the political cost or the future stability of the country.
Indirect peace negotiations sponsored by the US and Saudi Arabia are expected to resume later this month, but there is not much hope that they can produce a ceasefire, let alone a settlement of the conflict.
Showing its desire to fight on, the army has dramatically stepped up its drive to recruit civilians, organising thousands into brigades of lightly armed volunteers to compensate for its shortage of soldiers.
Videos posted online show induction ceremonies being held in cities and towns across the country and feature fiery motivational speeches denouncing international and regional schemes against Sudan and demonising the RSF as a tool of foreign powers.
Underlining the importance of the volunteers fighting on the army's side, Gen Al Burhan mentioned them in a brief televised address on Tuesday to mark the Eid Al Fitr holiday at the end of Ramadan.
“Greetings to the sons of my homeland as they join the ranks of the popular resistance everywhere to defeat the aggression and cleanse the land of Sudan from mercenaries,” he said.
The army has rejected a UN Security Council resolution adopted last month that called for a ceasefire during Ramadan, denying the RSF a chance to reorganise.
Underlining its new appetite for attack after months of faring poorly on the battlefield, it is amassing troops for what could be the war’s biggest and bloodiest battle south of Khartoum.
Some 40,000 troops and volunteers are believed to have been readied to wrest back control of Wad Madani, capital of Al Jazirah state south of the capital, that was captured by the RSF in December.
Videos shared online in recent days show dozens of all-terrain vehicles fitted with machine-guns and loaded with fighters moving on a dirt road towards Wad Madani. The outcome of the anticipated battle over the city, located in the middle of Sudan’s breadbasket, could determine the outcome of the war.
However, victory for the army would come at a price.
“Virtually all rebel groups that signed a peace deal with the army in 2020 now aspire to seize power, although their methods vary,” said Amin Magzoob, a retired army general who is now a political and military analyst.
“Some of them joined the army, others joined the RSF.
“Will all these factions be assimilated into the armed forces when the war ends? Will they surrender their weapons and return to civilian life?
“These militias have become an integral part of today’s political landscape and pose the gravest threat to national security.”
The increase in the number of factions has created the impression of a country at war with itself, said political analyst Omar Arbab.
“It’s a war that pits armies against armies,” he said, alluding to the multitude of rebel groups that have recently declared their allegiance to the army or the RSF.
“If you take a moment to think about this war, you’ll find that it’s really one between everyone and everyone else. The army says it’s fighting the Rapid Support Forces because it’s a mutinous militia, but then it goes and forges alliances with other militias.”
Army generals have repeatedly claimed that foreign mercenaries from some of Sudan’s neighbours, such as Chad and the Central African Republic, are fighting alongside the RSF.
Significantly, Islamists who once served as the enforcers of the regime of former leader Omar Al Bashir are joining the army in droves, taking advantage of an opportunity to find a way back to political power.
Sudan’s army has a long track record of enlisting the help of militias in its war effort against rebels. The RSF’s own forerunner, the notorious Janjaweed militia, fought on the government’s side against mostly ethnic African rebels during the civil war in Darfur in the 2000s.
During the 1983-2005 civil war in South Sudan, the army used militias made up of Islamists loyal to Al Bashir to fight southern rebels seeking self-determination for the mostly Christian and animist south that seceded in 2011.
Further complicating the wartime political landscape, Sudan’s army-backed chief prosecutor last week dealt a body blow to the already slim chances for a political settlement.
He issued arrest warrants for 17 prominent politicians who played a role in the popular 2018-2019 uprising that led to Al Bashir’s removal and later partnered with the military in a civilian-led transitional government before it was overthrown in 2021 by Gen Al Burhan and Gen Dagalo.
Now members of a newly formed coalition seeking to end the war, the 17, who include former transitional prime minister Abdalla Hamdok, are charged with incitement against the state and undermining the constitutional system.
If convicted, they could receive the death sentence. However, all of them are at large, mostly living in exile outside Sudan.
The war broke out after months of simmering tension between Gen Al Burhan and Gen Dagalo. The pair were at odds over details of Sudan’s democratic transition, particularly the powers and mandate of the military and paramilitaries such as the RSF.
Mounting tension boiled over into violence last April but no one has since been able to conclusively determine who fired the first shot.
The conflict has wrought a level of devastation and human suffering never seen previously in the many civil wars that have bedevilled Sudan since independence in 1956.
It has displaced about eight million people and killed tens of thousands. About a third of Sudan’s population, or 18 million people, face acute hunger, according to the UN World Food Programme, with the most desperate trapped behind the front lines. They include five million who face starvation, the WFP said.
Both the RSF and the army have been accused of war crimes.
While the army has been singled out for killing hundreds of civilians through its use of air strikes and heavy artillery in urban areas, the RSF is accused of torture, sexual assault, arbitrary detentions and ethnically motivated killings in western Sudan that left thousands dead and forced tens of thousands to flee to neighbouring nations.
“We have lived day by day since this war started. Trying to think beyond the day can only cause despair,” said Sulaima Ishaq, a political activist and women’s rights campaigner who left the Sudanese capital last year with her family and found refuge in the city of Kosti to the south.
“At the end of the day, I prefer the army over the RSF, but I know it’s the army that landed us where we are today.”
Al Shafie Ahmed reported from Kampala, Uganda
MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Company%20profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
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UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday Stuttgart v Cologne (Kick-off 10.30pm UAE)
Saturday RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin (5.30pm)
Mainz v Borussia Monchengladbach (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v SC Freiburg (5.30pm)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (5.30pm)
Sunday Wolfsburg v Arminia (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim (9pm)
Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg (11.30pm)
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
As it stands in Pool A
1. Japan - Played 3, Won 3, Points 14
2. Ireland - Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1, Points 11
3. Scotland - Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, Points 5
Remaining fixtures
Scotland v Russia – Wednesday, 11.15am
Ireland v Samoa – Saturday, 2.45pm
Japan v Scotland – Sunday, 2.45pm
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Shahi
Emirate: Sharjah – Khor Fakkan
Education: Master’s degree in special education, preparing for a PhD in philosophy.
Favourite activities: Bungee jumping
Favourite quote: “My people and I will not settle for anything less than first place” – Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid.
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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'Ashkal'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Youssef%20Chebbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fatma%20Oussaifi%20and%20Mohamed%20Houcine%20Grayaa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Gold'
Director:Anthony Hayes
Stars:Zaf Efron, Anthony Hayes
Rating:3/5
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
The%20specs%20
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New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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Specs
Price, base: Dhs850,000
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 591bhp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.3L / 100km
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%209
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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AWARDS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Male%20black%20belt%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELucas%20Protasio%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20female%20black%20belt%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJulia%20Alves%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Masters%20black%20belt%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Igor%20Silva%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Asian%20Jiu-Jitsu%20Federation%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kazakhstan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Academy%20in%20UAE%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECommando%20Group%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20International%20Academy%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Commando%20Group%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAfrican%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKatiuscia%20Yasmira%20Dias%20(GNB)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOceanian%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAnton%20Minenko%20(AUS)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEuropean%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rose%20El%20Sharouni%20(NED)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENorth%20and%20Central%20American%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlexa%20Yanes%20(USA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAsian%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZayed%20Al%20Katheeri%20(UAE)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERookie%20of%20the%20Year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rui%20Neto%20(BRA)Rui%20Neto%20(BRA)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMaly%20Tech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mo%20Ibrahim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%20International%20Financial%20Centre%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.6%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2015%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%2C%20planning%20first%20seed%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GCC-based%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
