Year of war has pushed Sudan closer to the abyss


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A year of war between Sudan’s army and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has pushed the vast Afro-Arab nation closer to the abyss, with more factions joining the conflict and hopes for a political settlement rapidly diminishing.

The conflict is widely viewed as a fight for control between two previously allied generals – army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commander Gen Mohamed Dagalo.

The first anniversary of the start of the war on April 15 caps 12 months of death, displacement, hunger and alleged war crimes on both sides.

The impact of the war is perhaps most clearly seen in videos posted online of the usually bustling streets of the capital Khartoum, now almost completely deserted against a backdrop of badly damaged buildings and burnt out cars.

To experts and many ordinary Sudanese, the scars caused by the almost wanton brutality of the war may take decades to heal.

And the worst may be yet to come.

“Things are getting worse for everyone,” said Noaman Ishaq, a political activist from Omdurman, a historical city that is part of the larger Khartoum area. He fled to Atbara, north of the capital, eight months after the war broke out.

“I have seen so many people getting killed before my own eyes and I myself was detained three times, twice by the RSF and once by the army. Now that I fled Omdurman, I feel free, but I lost my home.”

An elderly man waits to refill his donkey-drawn water tank in Port Sudan in the Red Sea State of war-torn Sudan. AFP
An elderly man waits to refill his donkey-drawn water tank in Port Sudan in the Red Sea State of war-torn Sudan. AFP

Emboldened by a recent spate of battlefield gains in the capital, the army appears determined to end the war militarily, regardless of the political cost or the future stability of the country.

Indirect peace negotiations sponsored by the US and Saudi Arabia are expected to resume later this month, but there is not much hope that they can produce a ceasefire, let alone a settlement of the conflict.

Showing its desire to fight on, the army has dramatically stepped up its drive to recruit civilians, organising thousands into brigades of lightly armed volunteers to compensate for its shortage of soldiers.

Videos posted online show induction ceremonies being held in cities and towns across the country and feature fiery motivational speeches denouncing international and regional schemes against Sudan and demonising the RSF as a tool of foreign powers.

Underlining the importance of the volunteers fighting on the army's side, Gen Al Burhan mentioned them in a brief televised address on Tuesday to mark the Eid Al Fitr holiday at the end of Ramadan.

“Greetings to the sons of my homeland as they join the ranks of the popular resistance everywhere to defeat the aggression and cleanse the land of Sudan from mercenaries,” he said.

The army has rejected a UN Security Council resolution adopted last month that called for a ceasefire during Ramadan, denying the RSF a chance to reorganise.

Underlining its new appetite for attack after months of faring poorly on the battlefield, it is amassing troops for what could be the war’s biggest and bloodiest battle south of Khartoum.

Sudanese refugees attending a cultural event at a restaurant in Cairo's Manial district. AFP
Sudanese refugees attending a cultural event at a restaurant in Cairo's Manial district. AFP

Some 40,000 troops and volunteers are believed to have been readied to wrest back control of Wad Madani, capital of Al Jazirah state south of the capital, that was captured by the RSF in December.

Videos shared online in recent days show dozens of all-terrain vehicles fitted with machine-guns and loaded with fighters moving on a dirt road towards Wad Madani. The outcome of the anticipated battle over the city, located in the middle of Sudan’s breadbasket, could determine the outcome of the war.

However, victory for the army would come at a price.

“Virtually all rebel groups that signed a peace deal with the army in 2020 now aspire to seize power, although their methods vary,” said Amin Magzoob, a retired army general who is now a political and military analyst.

“Some of them joined the army, others joined the RSF.

“Will all these factions be assimilated into the armed forces when the war ends? Will they surrender their weapons and return to civilian life?

“These militias have become an integral part of today’s political landscape and pose the gravest threat to national security.

The increase in the number of factions has created the impression of a country at war with itself, said political analyst Omar Arbab.

“It’s a war that pits armies against armies,” he said, alluding to the multitude of rebel groups that have recently declared their allegiance to the army or the RSF.

“If you take a moment to think about this war, you’ll find that it’s really one between everyone and everyone else. The army says it’s fighting the Rapid Support Forces because it’s a mutinous militia, but then it goes and forges alliances with other militias.”

Army generals have repeatedly claimed that foreign mercenaries from some of Sudan’s neighbours, such as Chad and the Central African Republic, are fighting alongside the RSF.

Significantly, Islamists who once served as the enforcers of the regime of former leader Omar Al Bashir are joining the army in droves, taking advantage of an opportunity to find a way back to political power.

Sudan’s army has a long track record of enlisting the help of militias in its war effort against rebels. The RSF’s own forerunner, the notorious Janjaweed militia, fought on the government’s side against mostly ethnic African rebels during the civil war in Darfur in the 2000s.

During the 1983-2005 civil war in South Sudan, the army used militias made up of Islamists loyal to Al Bashir to fight southern rebels seeking self-determination for the mostly Christian and animist south that seceded in 2011.

Further complicating the wartime political landscape, Sudan’s army-backed chief prosecutor last week dealt a body blow to the already slim chances for a political settlement.

He issued arrest warrants for 17 prominent politicians who played a role in the popular 2018-2019 uprising that led to Al Bashir’s removal and later partnered with the military in a civilian-led transitional government before it was overthrown in 2021 by Gen Al Burhan and Gen Dagalo.

Now members of a newly formed coalition seeking to end the war, the 17, who include former transitional prime minister Abdalla Hamdok, are charged with incitement against the state and undermining the constitutional system.

If convicted, they could receive the death sentence. However, all of them are at large, mostly living in exile outside Sudan.

Sudanese men shop for sweets ahead of Eid Al Fitr in Gedaref city. AFP
Sudanese men shop for sweets ahead of Eid Al Fitr in Gedaref city. AFP

The war broke out after months of simmering tension between Gen Al Burhan and Gen Dagalo. The pair were at odds over details of Sudan’s democratic transition, particularly the powers and mandate of the military and paramilitaries such as the RSF.

Mounting tension boiled over into violence last April but no one has since been able to conclusively determine who fired the first shot.

The conflict has wrought a level of devastation and human suffering never seen previously in the many civil wars that have bedevilled Sudan since independence in 1956.

It has displaced about eight million people and killed tens of thousands. About a third of Sudan’s population, or 18 million people, face acute hunger, according to the UN World Food Programme, with the most desperate trapped behind the front lines. They include five million who face starvation, the WFP said.

Both the RSF and the army have been accused of war crimes.

While the army has been singled out for killing hundreds of civilians through its use of air strikes and heavy artillery in urban areas, the RSF is accused of torture, sexual assault, arbitrary detentions and ethnically motivated killings in western Sudan that left thousands dead and forced tens of thousands to flee to neighbouring nations.

“We have lived day by day since this war started. Trying to think beyond the day can only cause despair,” said Sulaima Ishaq, a political activist and women’s rights campaigner who left the Sudanese capital last year with her family and found refuge in the city of Kosti to the south.

“At the end of the day, I prefer the army over the RSF, but I know it’s the army that landed us where we are today.”

Al Shafie Ahmed reported from Kampala, Uganda

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The finalists

Player of the Century, 2001-2020: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Ronaldinho

Coach of the Century, 2001-2020: Pep Guardiola (Manchester City), Jose Mourinho (Tottenham Hotspur), Zinedine Zidane (Real Madrid), Sir Alex Ferguson

Club of the Century, 2001-2020: Al Ahly (Egypt), Bayern Munich (Germany), Barcelona (Spain), Real Madrid (Spain)

Player of the Year: Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)

Club of the Year: Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Real Madrid

Coach of the Year: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta), Hans-Dieter Flick (Bayern Munich), Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)

Agent of the Century, 2001-2020: Giovanni Branchini, Jorge Mendes, Mino Raiola

Top investing tips for UAE residents in 2021

Build an emergency fund: Make sure you have enough cash to cover six months of expenses as a buffer against unexpected problems before you begin investing, advises Steve Cronin, the founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com.

Think long-term: When you invest, you need to have a long-term mindset, so don’t worry about momentary ups and downs in the stock market.

Invest worldwide: Diversify your investments globally, ideally by way of a global stock index fund.

Is your money tied up: Avoid anything where you cannot get your money back in full within a month at any time without any penalty.

Skip past the promises: “If an investment product is offering more than 10 per cent return per year, it is either extremely risky or a scam,” Mr Cronin says.

Choose plans with low fees: Make sure that any funds you buy do not charge more than 1 per cent in fees, Mr Cronin says. “If you invest by yourself, you can easily stay below this figure.” Managed funds and commissionable investments often come with higher fees.

Be sceptical about recommendations: If someone suggests an investment to you, ask if they stand to gain, advises Mr Cronin. “If they are receiving commission, they are unlikely to recommend an investment that’s best for you.”

Get financially independent: Mr Cronin advises UAE residents to pursue financial independence. Start with a Google search and improve your knowledge via expat investing websites or Facebook groups such as SimplyFI. 

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Ms Al Ameri likes the variety of her job, and the daily environmental challenges she is presented with.

Regular contact with wildlife is the most appealing part of her role at the Environment Agency Abu Dhabi.

She loves to explore new destinations and lives by her motto of being a voice in the world, and not an echo.

She is the youngest of three children, and has a brother and sister.

Her favourite book, Moby Dick by Herman Melville helped inspire her towards a career exploring  the natural world.

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Friday Valladolid v Osasuna (Kick-off midnight UAE)

Saturday Valencia v Athletic Bilbao (5pm), Getafe v Sevilla (7.15pm), Huesca v Alaves (9.30pm), Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (midnight)

Sunday Real Sociedad v Eibar (5pm), Real Betis v Villarreal (7.15pm), Elche v Granada (9.30pm), Barcelona v Levante (midnight)

Monday Celta Vigo v Cadiz (midnight)

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Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

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Water waste

In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.

Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.

A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.

The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.

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TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENCE (THAAD)

What is THAAD?

It is considered to be the US's most superior missile defence system.

Production:

It was created in 2008.

Speed:

THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.

Abilities:

THAAD is designed to take out  ballistic missiles as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".

Purpose:

To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.

Range:

THAAD can target projectiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 150 kilometres above the Earth's surface.

Creators:

Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.

UAE and THAAD:

In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then stationed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
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Investment raised: $4 million 
At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

Company profile

Date started: 2015

Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki

Based: Dubai

Sector: Online grocery delivery

Staff: 200

Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends

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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

Updated: April 14, 2024, 9:51 AM`