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Israeli retaliation against Iran after Saturday's drone and missile attack could take many forms despite the country's reliance on air power, analysts have told The National.
Israel has given little indication of the approach it plans to take in the days ahead. Early on Sunday, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said “the campaign hasn't ended”.
The range of options Israel might explore is due to political and technical constraints that could shape the operation.
On the technical side, the Israeli air force would be challenged by a major long-range attack against Iran – a complex operation involving aerial refuelling for most of the aircraft involved, and long flying hours placing strain on crews. Once over Iran, they would face dense air defence systems, while military and nuclear facilities have been built underground.
That is despite extensive planning, including a large exercise in 2022 that the Israeli air force said focused on “long-range flight, aerial refuelling and striking distant targets”.
Some available routes for hitting targets in Iran are about 2,000km one way, giving Israeli jets such as the F-15 little time to carry out missions before having to return to base, even with additional external fuel tanks.
That is not to say it is impossible – US jets struck Libya in 1986's Operation El Dorado Canyon, flying a 10,000km round trip from the UK, more than 13 hours. But experts say it is very high risk.
On the political side, Israel will have to weigh up the risk of dragging the US into the war.
“Part of the reason the US helped Israel so much in its air defence on Sunday morning was to not give Israel an excuse to retaliate,” says Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Israeli think tank INSS.
“If some of those drones and missiles hit in a more significant manner yesterday then the urge to retaliate in Israel would be stronger, which would make it harder for the US to maintain the status quo and prevent escalation in the region."
Israel has a fleet of ageing air-to-air refuelling tankers but modern KC-46A replacements are set for delivery in 2025.
This creates challenges. With the ability to fly for 36 hours, the KC-46A has a high endurance for long missions and comes equipped with anti-electronic jamming equipment to make the large target safer from attack.
At the same time, Israel’s stealthy F-35s, vital for penetrating enemy airspace and evading radar, can carry external fuel tanks, but these can jeopardise the stealth aspects of the aircraft, although there are claims Israel has designed stealthy fuel tanks.
The weight of external fuel tanks also limits bomb loads, which are vital if Israel wants to damage underground Iranian drone sites or nuclear facilities. Israel has a number of huge GBU-72, 2,267kg “bunker buster” bombs that it is thought would be critical for hitting Iran’s underground sites.
The long distance will influence flight paths, possibly through the airspaces of friendly and hostile countries.
That introduces unpalatable political considerations, says Raphael Cohen, a director at Project Air Force at Rand, a US think tank.
“The tanker gap is a limiting factor on the response but ultimately if Israel chooses not to respond, it will likely be more for political reasons, including keeping western and friendly Arab countries on its side, than for military capacity ones,” he says.
“There is also the question of access, basing and overflight here too, especially for manned aircraft. Some of the contours of response will be determined by which countries, if any, grant the Israelis tacit access to their airspace. I can also imagine retaliation via other means, missiles, naval forces, one-way drones and so on. The Israelis might also just double down on going after Quds Force operatives abroad too."
That refers to follow-on attacks after the original April 1 attack on Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus that killed two Iranian generals in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, leading to Iran’s retaliation.
Unlike Iran, Israel lacks a huge arsenal of long-range missiles, although it has a number of Jericho ballistic missiles that could easily hit Iran. It is not clear exactly how many of them exist, however, because the devices are thought to be part of Israel’s nuclear deterrence, and might not be used with non-nuclear warheads.
Similarly, Israel might opt for a submarine-launched cruise missile attack against Iran, but unlike US nuclear attack submarines, which can carry 154 cruise missiles, Israel’s five Dolphin 2 submarines can only carry a few, massively limiting a counter-strike.
New era of conflict
Israel faces a major dilemma as it weighs up whether to heed US calls for calm in a region on the brink of war, against what many in the Israeli security establishment say is a desperate need to hit Iran hard.
Sima Shine, a former senior Mossad official focused on Iran, says Tehran embraced a “completely new paradigm" towards Israel on Sunday by becoming the first country to directly attack Israel since Saddam Hussein launched missiles in 1991. Iraq fired a peak average of five Scud ballistic missiles a day at Israel during the Gulf War in an attempt to expand the conflict into a regional crisis.
“Israel can use yesterday’s situation in order to start pursuing a new arrangement in the region,” she argues. “This is a very unique strategic opportunity for Israel, although I don’t know if this current government is able to take it."
Israel continued to hit Iranian proxy forces on Sunday, including with a strike deep into Lebanese territory that the Israeli military said targeted a “significant weapons manufacturing site” belonging to Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Results
2pm: Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: Mouheeb, Tom Marquand (jockey), Nicholas Bachalard (trainer)
2.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Honourable Justice, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Dark Silver, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Dark Of Night. Antonio Fresu, Al Muhairi.
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Habah, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Checks continue
A High Court judge issued an interim order on Friday suspending a decision by Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots to direct a stop to Brexit agri-food checks at Northern Ireland ports.
Mr Justice Colton said he was making the temporary direction until a judicial review of the minister's unilateral action this week to order a halt to port checks that are required under the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Civil servants have yet to implement the instruction, pending legal clarity on their obligations, and checks are continuing.
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
MATCH INFO
Leeds United 0
Brighton 1 (Maupay 17')
Man of the match: Ben White (Brighton)
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
$1,000 award for 1,000 days on madrasa portal
Daily cash awards of $1,000 dollars will sweeten the Madrasa e-learning project by tempting more pupils to an education portal to deepen their understanding of math and sciences.
School children are required to watch an educational video each day and answer a question related to it. They then enter into a raffle draw for the $1,000 prize.
“We are targeting everyone who wants to learn. This will be $1,000 for 1,000 days so there will be a winner every day for 1,000 days,” said Sara Al Nuaimi, project manager of the Madrasa e-learning platform that was launched on Tuesday by the Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, to reach Arab pupils from kindergarten to grade 12 with educational videos.
“The objective of the Madrasa is to become the number one reference for all Arab students in the world. The 5,000 videos we have online is just the beginning, we have big ambitions. Today in the Arab world there are 50 million students. We want to reach everyone who is willing to learn.”
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Green ambitions
- Trees: 1,500 to be planted, replacing 300 felled ones, with veteran oaks protected
- Lake: Brown's centrepiece to be cleaned of silt that makes it as shallow as 2.5cm
- Biodiversity: Bat cave to be added and habitats designed for kingfishers and little grebes
- Flood risk: Longer grass, deeper lake, restored ponds and absorbent paths all meant to siphon off water
Ovo's tips to find extra heat
- Open your curtains when it’s sunny
- Keep your oven open after cooking
- Have a cuddle with pets and loved ones to help stay cosy
- Eat ginger but avoid chilli as it makes you sweat
- Put on extra layers
- Do a few star jumps
- Avoid alcohol
Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20UAE%20men%E2%80%99s%20cricketer%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWhen%20he%20debuted%20against%20Bangladesh%20aged%2016%20years%20and%20314%20days%2C%20he%20became%20the%20youngest%20ever%20to%20play%20for%20the%20men%E2%80%99s%20senior%20team.%20He%20broke%20the%20record%20set%20by%20his%20World%20Cup%20squad-mate%2C%20Alishan%20Sharafu%2C%20of%2017%20years%20and%2044%20days.%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20wicket-taker%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20taking%20the%20wicket%20of%20Bangladesh%E2%80%99s%20Litton%20Das%20on%20debut%20in%20Dubai%2C%20Aayan%20became%20the%20youngest%20male%20cricketer%20to%20take%20a%20wicket%20against%20a%20Full%20Member%20nation%20in%20a%20T20%20international.%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20in%20T20%20World%20Cup%20history%3F%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAayan%20does%20not%20turn%2017%20until%20November%2015%20%E2%80%93%20which%20is%20two%20days%20after%20the%20T20%20World%20Cup%20final%20at%20the%20MCG.%20If%20he%20does%20play%20in%20the%20competition%2C%20he%20will%20be%20its%20youngest%20ever%20player.%20Pakistan%E2%80%99s%20Mohammed%20Amir%2C%20who%20was%2017%20years%20and%2055%20days%20when%20he%20played%20in%202009%2C%20currently%20holds%20the%20record.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
F1 drivers' standings
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 281
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 222
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 177
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 138
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 93
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 86
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 56
HWJN
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CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
