Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
Iran has warned Israel it will pay a price for attacking its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, an air strike that killed two Iranian generals, among seven officers of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and nine others, including some Syrians.
This leaves the question of which weapons Iran has at hand to strike Israeli targets.
In the past, Iran has delivered long-range drones and missiles to allies to attack Israel, accepting losses among those allies in retaliatory air strikes.
Mark Pyruz, an expert on Iran's security services, says observers should not expect the Iranians to accept what he calls “reflexive control” after the attack, whereby Iran restrains its retaliatory instincts for fear of provoking something worse.
This was the case after the US assassination of Maj Gen Qassem Suleimani in Iraq in 2020, when Iran halted direct attempts at retaliation after firing one heavy barrage of missiles at American forces.
Today, Iran could be willing to take more losses and more risk, if history is a guide.
“The Iranian-Israeli contest stretches back to the First Lebanon War [1982], with attrition and replacements a feature of raised levels of conflict,” Mr Pyruz says. "A response isn't expected to divert global public focus away from Israel's disadvantageous Gaza policy but rather a continuation of targeting observed during this present crisis."
This form of proxy warfare is already playing out on the Israel-Lebanon border in daily clashes between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel.
Hezbollah is thought to possess a number of guided ballistic missiles that have not yet been used, which could strike Israeli airports and power plants – but the group has hinted it will not play a central role in an Iranian strike.
It is suspected that Hezbollah has not yet used Khaibar-1 missiles, with a 100km range, or Fateh 110 missiles, with a 160km range, because such a move could rapidly expand the war.
This leaves two other proxy fronts in Iraq, where analysts say Iran has sent allied militias shorter-range ballistic missiles, including the Al Aqsa missile thought to have capability of travelling less than 100km.
The militias have, however, fired drones towards Eilat, thought to be Shahed 110s, commonly used by Iran-backed groups against US forces.
If that continues, Israel could retaliate inside Iraq – Israeli jets may have bombed the militias in a series of mysterious air strikes and explosions in 2019.
On the Syrian front, where these groups operate frequently alongside Hezbollah, Israel has launched hundreds of air strikes, accepting responsibility for some over a period of more than 10 years, but commenting seldom on individual attacks.
This is one reason why attacks from Syria have been relatively rare.
Unless supplied with longer-range missiles, there is little more Iran-backed groups in Iraq can do except hope that one of their drones hits a high-value target, such as the Eilat naval base.
This leaves two possibilities: an increased supply of weapons to Houthi militias currently blockading the Red Sea, sending more advanced missiles such as the Toufan ballistic missile and Quds-3 cruise missile, both of which can hit Israel and have come close on two occasions.
This option is not ideal, due to Israel’s now reinforced air defence network.
“The Houthis have been firing at Eilat and southern Israel since October, with very little to show for their efforts and expenditure,” says Aron Lund, of the Century International think tank. "These attacks seem to have no strategic material impact on the conflict whatsoever.
“One might justifiably ask why they’re willing to throw away all these expensive and hard-to-come-by weapons without hitting anything that matters or seriously complicating Israeli operations.”
This limited capability leaves some form of direct Iranian attack on Israeli interests – such as a terrorist attack on embassies, hinted at in IRGC-linked media – or against Israel itself.
Iran has used Shahed 136 drones to attack vessels owned by Israeli companies, before the current Gaza war, hitting the Pacific Zircon, owned by Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer, in 2022, and striking the Mercer Street, also linked to an Israeli company, killing two sailors, in 2021.
Direct confrontation?
Tehran’s most extreme option is attacking Israel directly.
Israel is well within range of missiles such as the Khormashahr 4, with a 2,000km range, or even the shorter-range Shahab. The accuracy of these weapons at such long distances is unknown, unlike the 500km-range Fateh 313, which is accurate to tens of metres.
Without accuracy, Iran might be satisfied with hitting a city or sparsely populated area, depending on whether it is prepared for a limited war or major Israeli retaliation, if many Israelis are killed.
Iran’s Shahed-149 “Gaza” drone, with a claimed range of 2,500km, might contribute to such an attack but it presents a relatively big target for air defences.
"Israel has intercepted drones from Syria in the past and intercepted Hezbollah drones. Most of the Iranian proxies use similar models for drones. They don't have the capabilities to avoid modern air defences, but that doesn't mean they can't find complex routes that keep them away from air defences for part of their flight path," says Seth Frantzman, author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines, Artificial Intelligence, and the Battle for the Future.
Israel, meanwhile, has long-planned to use its F-35I stealth fighter to strike Iran in the event of war, or to hit Iranian nuclear facilities. Such an attack could be augmented by non-stealth aircraft such as the heavily armed and fast F-15.
But these operations might be limited, given Israel’s lack of in-flight refuelling for massive air operations at long range, and US-purchased KC-46A Pegasus refuelling tankers are not expected to be delivered until 2025.
In any case, even a limited clash between Iran and Israel would represent another tipping point towards a worsening regional war.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Europe's top EV producers
- Norway (63% of cars registered in 2021)
- Iceland (33%)
- Netherlands (20%)
- Sweden (19%)
- Austria (14%)
- Germany (14%)
- Denmark (13%)
- Switzerland (13%)
- United Kingdom (12%)
- Luxembourg (10%)
Source: VCOe
RESULT
Manchester United 1 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Man United: Dunk (66' og)
Man of the Match: Shane Duffy (Brighton)
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
THREE POSSIBLE REPLACEMENTS
Khalfan Mubarak
The Al Jazira playmaker has for some time been tipped for stardom within UAE football, with Quique Sanchez Flores, his former manager at Al Ahli, once labelling him a “genius”. He was only 17. Now 23, Mubarak has developed into a crafty supplier of chances, evidenced by his seven assists in six league matches this season. Still to display his class at international level, though.
Rayan Yaslam
The Al Ain attacking midfielder has become a regular starter for his club in the past 15 months. Yaslam, 23, is a tidy and intelligent player, technically proficient with an eye for opening up defences. Developed while alongside Abdulrahman in the Al Ain first-team and has progressed well since manager Zoran Mamic’s arrival. However, made his UAE debut only last December.
Ismail Matar
The Al Wahda forward is revered by teammates and a key contributor to the squad. At 35, his best days are behind him, but Matar is incredibly experienced and an example to his colleagues. His ability to cope with tournament football is a concern, though, despite Matar beginning the season well. Not a like-for-like replacement, although the system could be adjusted to suit.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
La Mer lowdown
La Mer beach is open from 10am until midnight, daily, and is located in Jumeirah 1, well after Kite Beach. Some restaurants, like Cupagahwa, are open from 8am for breakfast; most others start at noon. At the time of writing, we noticed that signs for Vicolo, an Italian eatery, and Kaftan, a Turkish restaurant, indicated that these two restaurants will be open soon, most likely this month. Parking is available, as well as a Dh100 all-day valet option or a Dh50 valet service if you’re just stopping by for a few hours.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur (3.30pm)
Burnley v Huddersfield Town (7pm)
Everton v Bournemouth (7pm)
Manchester City v Crystal Palace (7pm)
Southampton v Manchester United (7pm)
Stoke City v Chelsea (7pm)
Swansea City v Watford (7pm)
Leicester City v Liverpool (8.30pm)
Sunday
Brighton and Hove Albion v Newcastle United (7pm)
Monday
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion (11pm)
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
SPECS
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
In The Heights
Directed by: Jon M. Chu
Stars: Anthony Ramos, Lin-Manual Miranda
Rating: ****
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The five pillars of Islam
Results
2.30pm: Expo 2020 Dubai – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: Barakka, Ray Dawson (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer)
3.05pm: Now Or Never – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: One Idea, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson
3.40pm: This Is Our Time – Handicap (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Perfect Balance, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar
4.15pm: Visit Expo 2020 – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Kaheall, Richard Mullen, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.50pm: The World In One Place – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1.900m; Winner: Castlebar, Adrie de Vries, Helal Al Alawi
5.25pm: Vision – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Shanty Star, Richard Mullen, Rashed Bouresly
6pm: Al Wasl Plaza – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Jadwal, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Men's football draw
Group A: UAE, Spain, South Africa, Jamaica
Group B: Bangladesh, Serbia, Korea
Group C: Bharat, Denmark, Kenya, USA
Group D: Oman, Austria, Rwanda
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 0
Liverpool 2 (Mane 50', 54')
Red card: Andreas Christensen (Chelsea)
Man of the match: Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
RESULTS
6.30pm Handicap (TB) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
7.05pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner: Walton Street, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Switzerland, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
8.15pm Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner Lord Giltters, Adrie de Vries, David O’Meara
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Military Law, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
9.25pm Al Fahidi Fort Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Land Of Legends, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
10pm Dubai Dash Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner Equilateral, Frankie Dettori, Charles Hills.
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Emirates Cricket Board Women’s T10
ECB Hawks v ECB Falcons
Monday, April 6, 7.30pm, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
The match will be broadcast live on the My Sports Eye Facebook page
Hawks
Coach: Chaitrali Kalgutkar
Squad: Chaya Mughal (captain), Archara Supriya, Chamani Senevirathne, Chathurika Anand, Geethika Jyothis, Indhuja Nandakumar, Kashish Loungani, Khushi Sharma, Khushi Tanwar, Rinitha Rajith, Siddhi Pagarani, Siya Gokhale, Subha Srinivasan, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish
Falcons
Coach: Najeeb Amar
Squad: Kavisha Kumari (captain), Almaseera Jahangir, Annika Shivpuri, Archisha Mukherjee, Judit Cleetus, Ishani Senavirathne, Lavanya Keny, Mahika Gaur, Malavika Unnithan, Rishitha Rajith, Rithika Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Shashini Kaluarachchi, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Vaishnave Mahesh
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
