The ferocity of the shots fired in the recent India-Pakistan conflict have quietened but the skirmish is already having an impact on global air forces.
Jamming devices are now considered essential, experts have told The National. A major investigation among Western powers is under way to understand how potentially three French-built Rafales were lost to Pakistan's Chinese made J-10Cs, alongside the worrying development of long-range aerial warfare.
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is proving, it’s not the alluring curved lines of missiles that are essential to survival, but the energy emitted from unseen weapons.
“Operating in high-threat environments, electronic warfare (EW) is a must have, it's not an optional extra any more if you're going to survive in contested airspace,” said Gareth Jennings, air power editor of Janes, the defence intelligence company.
As the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts are also demonstrating, modern warfare is evolving at rapid speeds among many weapons systems, with survival dependent on innovation and skill. It should be a wake-up call to nations that need to upgrade their aircraft defences with EW, a British military source said.
Aerial prowess
The Kashmir clash has demonstrated not only the high level of professionalism shown by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) but also the emerging quality of Chinese-manufactured jets and missiles. The ability of the Pakistanis to operate a complex defence using airborne and ground radar co-ordinating its fighters has already unnerved Western onlookers.
“The West now knows it faces an extremely capable, integrated air and missile defence and it is also clear that China in the air domain is probably sliding ahead of Russia,” said Frank Ledwidge, a former military intelligence officer. The ability of the PAF’s J-10C fighters and “beyond visual range” PL-15E missiles that took down potentially five Indian air force fighters at a distance of more than 100km, has been noted.
Once fired, the PL-15E is blasted by a rocket booster to hypersonic speed of Mach 5 (6,200kph) then guided on to its target by the J-10C fighter’s radar. In the closing stages, it switches to its Aesa (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar with a second burst of speed being injected 10km from a target, making it difficult to evade.
It is unclear if the older generation Indian Rafales were fitted with Aesa that could have allowed them to jam both the Pakistan fighter and the missile in its closing stages with a beam of focused electronic noise. There is also a suggestion that India was totally unprepared for the level of sophistication facing them, with all their aircraft shot down over home territory where they possibly thought they were safe.
Worried West
The incident is prompting reassessments for major defence companies, not only for Dassault, which makes the Rafale, but also the European manufacturers of Typhoon and US aircraft companies. “There’s a lot of work from an intelligence perspective, trying to understand the capability in terms of the missiles, their range and speed and therefore why the air defences didn't work or didn't prevent it,” a leading defence company insider told The National.
Vital to understanding the losses will be how the Rafale’s electronic warfare systems worked and the skill of the pilots using them. Like the Typhoon, the Rafale is called a “4.5 generation” fighter, highly capable with good defensive measures and a proven operational capability, but until this month operating against countries without serious air power.
Essential to the Rafale’s survival against missiles such as the PL-15 are its Spectra (Self-Protection Equipment Countering Threats to Rafale Aircraft) jamming system to protect it against missiles.
It is not known to what extent India has Spectra, or if it was used during the engagement, “but in terms of the Pakistani capabilities, "it certainly shows that they're not inferior to the Indian Air Force in any way,” Mr Jennings said.
While India has an earlier version of the aircraft, analysts have stated that the newest F4 variant has greater range, better weapons and significantly more cyber capabilities, and with the Spectra even more jamming power making it “more defendable” against missiles such as the PL-15.
Air advantage
The Typhoon will also soon be equipped with the Leonardo-designed Mark Two Radar, which can fire “pulses of energy against surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles” that would give it greater capability, said military analyst Francis Tusa, editor of Defence Eye. However, he argued that the Rafale F5 model, coming into service in 2028, has also got “really serious connectivity” that would arguably be greater than the US made F-35.
Which introduces the argument that the 4.5 generation fighters might, with the right EW suites, fare as well as the stealth technology of aircraft such as the F-35, which largely rely on radar cloaking to prevent attacks. Once locked-on by a missile it is largely down to pilot skill to avoid destruction, as apparently demonstrated by a US F-35 pilot targeted by a Houthi missile in the recent conflict.
None invincible
Both Typhoon and Rafale have been on combat operations across the Middle East and North Africa, from Libya to Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and Mali, without any losses. But Rafale has been the only one involved in air-to-air combat. The key now for all countries with expensive 4.5 generation aircraft, costing around $120 million each, will be to equip them for what modern warfare is throwing at them at pace.
“None of these aircraft are invincible, and there's absolutely no reason why a Rafale competently handled using good tactics and a decent pilot shouldn't take down a J-10 or any other aircraft,” said Mr Jennings. Ultimately it is going to be down to small fractions of technological edge or pilot skill that ensures survivability in future aerial combat.
