Russia is set to introduce its latest fibre-optic drones when its summer offensive in Ukraine begins, military analysts said.
A 15km cable like a fishing line allows the drones to overcome electronic jamming defences while sending images to the pilot.
The weapons have already flown along forest tracks to attack Ukrainian supply lorries and into bunkers to kill soldiers.
Russia has devised a tactic using the drones that could give it an advantage over Ukrainian lines in the coming months, according to a new report by Royal United Services Institute, the British defence and security think tank.
Blind operators
While ceasefire talks have been continuing, Russia had been “innovating” for months to work out how to beat Ukraine’s drone defences, Dr Jack Watling, the report’s author, wrote.
Ukrainian drone advances enabled them to knock out Russian reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles using “interceptors”. These blinded enemy units attempting to use glide bombs and ballistic missiles to attack behind the Ukrainian front lines.
Ukraine created what soldiers call the “death zone”, a 15km-deep swathe of land running back from the frontline, dominated by surveillance drones that call down kamikaze UAVs on to targets.
This has led to avoidance methods such as the Russian army using hundreds of motorbikes and quad-bikes to speed troops to the frontline.
But Russia can now hit back using the fibre-optic drones to find Ukraine’s small radar units, blind them and then eliminate the UAV operators.
Fly by wire
Russian engineers were the first to consider using fibre-optic cables attached to drones to overcome electronic warfare methods.
The drones were introduced late last year and proved highly effective in the counter-attack against the Kursk salient of Russian territory seized by Ukraine in August.
Their hits on lorries bringing in ammunition and rations and evacuating the wounded made Ukraine’s position untenable in Kursk.
That was made possible by Russian engineers who turned radio-guided first person view drones into wire-guided precision weapons like the US TOW (tube-launched, optically-tracked, wire-guided) anti-tank systems widely used in the 1991 Iraq War.
By attaching a 15km spool to a quadcopter drone armed with a bomb and flying at 60 kph, the Russians achieved a similar effect at a much lower cost.
Operators quickly discovered that the devices can fly unimpeded through forests, below defensive netting and, more importantly, beyond the radio antennae horizon necessary for first person view drones to keep their signal connected.
The camera quality is another advantage that the Ukrainians have discovered as they rapidly develop their systems.
Ukraine’s Unmanned System Forces unit has just introduced the Silkworm, which can also be used on unmanned vehicles, and are hoping to regain ground.
Hunting the hunters
But the situation is about to get more deadly for Kyiv with Moscow's military using the new weapons to locate and destroy its small radar stations.
“Here the methodology is to use direction finding, signals intelligence and reconnaissance to pinpoint the location of pilots and then target them with wire-guided drones (fibre-optic) and glide bombs,” Dr Watling wrote.
That could allow Russian forces to get behind the 15km deep “belt of attrition” that had prevented troops getting to the front in sufficient numbers to break through.
President Vladimir Putin has boasted that Russia, with large cash incentives, is recruiting more than 50,000 troops a month, far greater than the 30,000 monthly casualties it is estimated by Ukraine's western benefactors to be suffering.
With its well-trained forces also posted from Kursk, the Kremlin can now concentrate on seizing much of eastern Ukraine.
“Having shuffled commanders and built-up reserves of equipment, Russia is now set to increase the tempo and scale of attacks,” Dr Watling said.
Troops and time
Seizing significant territory over the summer will be crucial for Moscow as it is estimated by western analysts that its Soviet era tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery will run out by mid-autumn. Russia will then be reliant on the 20 to 50 tanks it can build from scratch each month, far less than the estimated 100 it currently loses.
Its manpower is also finite meaning that it “can fight another two campaign seasons” before it will need forced mobilisation at some point next year, the Rusi report said.
The Ukrainians could develop a system to defeat the fibre-optic drones that, being slower and less manoeuvrable than others, are more vulnerable to ground fire.
The fibre itself, which is largely supplied by China, reflects sunlight, perhaps revealing the operator’s position.
Darker future?
However, the picture is a “challenging four months” for the Ukrainian military, particularly as US arms support runs out, said Dr Watling.
“This will place a premium on the efficiency of Ukrainian drone and artillery operations,” he said.
There was also a “darker possible future” in which Moscow’s summer offensive “overpowers Ukrainian defences” seizing towns and cities, along with a campaign on Kyiv.
The Russians will then hope they can convince Europe to pressure Ukraine “to sue for peace, even on unacceptable terms”, he said.
