Russia-Ukraine war: Is Europe’s ‘Coalition of the Willing’ force up to the job?

Defence chiefs meet in London on Thursday to debate the size of a European-led army that could be posted to Ukraine as part of a “coalition of the willing” if a ceasefire is agreed with Russia.

British defence minister Luke Pollard said the commitment to secure peace in Ukraine was needed despite President Vladimir Putin rejection of any western security presence. Speaking in London, Mr Pollard said the allies were counting on US involvement. “What we’re planning at the moment is for a force that will include the United States as a backstop,” he told Times Radio on Thursday.

The force, likely to number between 20,000 and 40,000 troops, will hope to act as a deterrent to future Russian aggression. But to do so it will need to be extremely robust, packing a powerful combined arms punch of infantry, artillery, tanks, jets and warships.

Keir Starmer will join the meeting at the PJHQ military headquarters in north London where the size and type of force is being thrashed out. Mr Starmer travelled from a visit to one of Britain's Vanguard nuclear submarines, where he said Ukraine appreciated the UK deterrent.

The National has spoken to military experts on the potential make up of the peacekeeping force drawn from the 26 countries of the coalition.

Infantry

Foot soldiers will be the most visible and most vulnerable of all troops posted to Ukraine. With provocation from Russia highly likely, as well as casualties, their rules of engagement will be key. If they are too weak, the Russians are likely to take advantage, as the Serbs did during the Bosnian war, and either take prisoners or ignore them.

France’s well-resourced army could provide the biggest numbers, along with Germany, Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Britain.

“It should look like a conventional army ready for war to properly deter Russia,” said Sam Cranny-Evans, editor of Calibre Defence, a defence consultancy. “For their rules of engagement, it would have to be made clear that any Russian soldiers found beyond a certain point would be engaged.”

Estimated numbers

France: 6,000 – reinforced armoured brigade

Germany: 6,000 – armoured brigade

Turkey: 4,000-6,000 – armoured brigade

UK: 3,000-5,000 – 7th Light Brigade, plus elements of 16 Air Assault Brigade

Canada, Netherlands, Denmark: 1,500 each with a battlegroup

Australia: 700 – reinforced light infantry battalion

New Zealand: 150 – reinforced company

Czech, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Portugal, Spain: 12,000 – possibly two combined brigades of 6,000 each

Estimated total: 40,350

Countries that border Russia – Poland, Nordic nations and Baltic states – are unlikely to contribute ground forces.

Tanks

The assigned brigades will need to be strong enough to protect the infantry and project power. While Russian tanks have proven highly vulnerable, particularly to drones, western tanks have greater defences and firepower.

The British army is unlikely to field any of its Challenger II tanks as the force has been “run down and can barely service the 11 tanks in Estonia”, said military commentator Francis Tusa, editor of Defence Eye.

However, the French Leclerc and German Leopard 2 tanks are available in numbers. The Netherlands, which ditched tanks 13 years ago, is now rapidly rearming and spending $1 billion on new Leopard 2s.

“You still need the ability to concentrate heavy firepower to destroy enemy vehicles,” said Matthew Savill, head of military science at the Rusi think tank. “Tanks are vulnerable but also survivable.”

Estimated numbers

Germany: 50-84 Leopard 2

France: 52 Leclerc main battle tanks

Turkey: 50-84, mostly the new domestically made Altay as well as Leopard 2s

Denmark: 16 Leopard 2s

Greece: 16-32 Leopard 2s

Estimated total: 268

Infantry fighting vehicles

With one-way-attack drones and anti-personnel mines swamping the battlefield, armoured protection in Ukraine is vital to prevent casualties.

Ukraine has been given scores of German Marder, Swedish CV90 and American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, generally mounted with a 20mm or 30mm cannon very useful for close support.

Again, the paucity of kit available in the British army, is highlighted by the requirement for “an absolute national effort” to get a battalion-sized force of the ageing Warrior armoured vehicles, said Mr Tusa.

Estimated numbers

Germany: 98 Marder

France: 98 VBCI

Britain: 48 Warrior

Turkey: 98 ACV-15s

Greece: 16 Marder

Estimated total: 358

Artillery

The renaissance of traditional artillery has been significant in the Ukraine war with the more than 16 million rounds fired so far causing 80 per cent of casualties.

Ukraine has 900 artillery pieces, most donated by western powers, including Britain, which gave up its entire stock of AS90 guns.

“You want a lot of artillery as brings with it a powerful suppressant effect and ideally rocket artillery,” said Mr Savill.

Estimated numbers

Turkey: 32 – two regiments of 155mm self-propelled K9 Thunder and Arpan howitzers

Germany: 18 Panzerhaubitze 2,000 tracked 155mm guns

France: 16 Caesar wheeled 155mm guns. France has already donated 67 to Ukraine.

UK: 18 105mm light guns

Canada: 6 M777 155mm towed howitzers

Netherlands: 16 Panzerhaubitze 2,000

Greece: 16 Panzerhaubitze 2,000 or M109s

Estimated total: 122

In addition, countries will be able field MLRS or ATACMS precision missile systems that Ukraine has shown to be highly effective.

Attack helicopters

Sleek helicopters armed with missiles were supposed to be the battle winners of modern warfare, yet advanced short-range missiles and drones have blunted their power, with the Russians losing a large chunk of their fleet.

However, the advanced models fielded by western armies could give a further edge to the deterrence force and would be welcomed by Ukraine.

Estimated numbers

Britain: 16 – 8 Apache 64E, 8 Wildcat

France: 12 Eurocopter Tigers

Germany: 8 Eurocopter Tigers

Greece: 6 Apache

Estimated total: 42

Air power

A significant boost in the deterrent force would be advanced fighters owned by many European countries. Even if it is not allowed to use America’s F-35s, the Eurofighter Typhoon and French Rafale will outclass much of the opposition, especially with advanced air-to-air missiles that out-range what the Russians have.

Europe’s advanced drones could also play a role, especially if the US allows Britain to use its Reaper models. But it will also be a fast-learning experience on how small, cheap and plentiful drones are used to deadly effect.

Also, if Germany provides air-launched Taurus cruise missiles, that would present a significant threat.

Estimated numbers

Britain: 42 Typhoons – Britain could put forward a “wing” of its battle-proven fighters.

France: 32 Rafale – two squadrons

Germany: 18 Typhoons

Greece: 8 Typhoons

Estimated total: 100

Navy

While the majority of casualties have occurred on land, Ukraine has been able to sink at least a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet using drones and missiles.

Putting air defence destroyers in the area, with their anti-aircraft Aster missiles’ range of 150km, would severely curtail Russian air activity over key Ukrainian ports such as Odesa. A lot would depend on Turkey allowing ships into the Black Sea as it has the final say on warships entering under the Montreux Convention.

Britain could provide a Type 45 destroyer and France could similarly send one of its Horizon destroyers.

Air defence

Again, Ukraine has proven the critical need for strong air defences, both to defend frontline troops and protect key industrial sites and cities.

If the US allows it, more Patriot batteries could come in, especially from Germany, as well as potential batteries from Norway and Sweden. Britain’s small force of Starstreak missiles mounted on Stormer tracked vehicles has already been largely given to Ukraine.

Mr Pollard added that other frontline forces along the Russian frontier should be maintained even if some of the assigned troops are mobilised for Ukraine. “The type of planning that we're doing today is to make sure that any force in or around Ukraine can be as credible as possible, and importantly, support our Ukrainian friends to defend their country and their front line,” he said.

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