Talks to bring the three-year war in Ukraine to an end will take a significant step forward on Saturday when Britain hosts a summit on the conflict following the peace talks in Saudi Arabia.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is leading plans to put together a European-led deterrence force that would be stationed in Ukraine to oversee any potential peace deal struck with Russia. The decision to announce the Saturday meeting well in advance complemented an unseen role for UK officials in the build up to the crucial discussions in Jeddah.
Jonathan Powell, the UK’s National Security Adviser, was directly engaged in Kyiv last week with his Ukrainian counterparts while backchannel discussions between Foreign Secretary David Lammy and a wider diplomatic circle facilitated the high-level preparations.
Discussions between 34 countries from Europe, Nato and the British Commonwealth, have been continuing this week to assemble a force of more than 30,000 troops.
A meeting of armed forces chiefs in Paris on Tuesday was followed by a summit of defence ministers on Wednesday who are expected to put forward the numbers of troops each country will provide.
The proposal will then be discussed by leaders with a potential final plan decided at the UK’s Saturday virtual summit that will then be presented to the US administration.
Hopes for progress came after Ukraine's agreement with US officials in Jeddah to a 30-day ceasefire which Mr Starmer described as a “remarkable breakthrough”.
European backstop
The meetings, officials in Paris said, demonstrated to the US that Europe can take responsibility for a large part of the post-ceasefire security framework for Ukraine.
Speaking to chiefs of staff behind closed doors, French President Emmanuel Macron told them that given the acceleration of peace negotiations, it was now necessary to “move from concept to plan” to define credible security guarantees for Ukraine, his office said.
The Elysee added that participants agreed that these security guarantees must be credible and long-term, accompanied by unwavering support for the Ukrainian army and include Nato's capabilities.
The meeting was a “decisive moment that underscored Europe’s position to weigh in on the resolution of the conflict,” French armed forces chief Gen Thierry Burkhard wrote on X.
While Europe was not represented in the breakthrough Jeddah talks the joint Ukraine-US statement referred to a Ukrainian request for “European partners” to be “involved in the peace process”.
However, the "coalition of the willing" proposed by Mr Starmer suffered a setback on Wednesday after reports emerged alleging that Italy would not join Saturday's meeting.
According to Italian newspapers, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she was “not convinced” by the wisdom of the Anglo-French plan to send European troops into Ukraine.
Eyes on Moscow
But all eyes are now on the Russian response particularly after Mr Trump said he would speak to Russia's President Vladimir Putin later this week.
Furthermore, in a signal that US-Ukraine ties may be on the mend, Mr Trump stated on Tuesday that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be invited back to Washington despite the two leaders' recent public falling-out at the White House. Mr Trump also reversed a freeze on military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine.
James Cartlidge, the UK’s shadow defence secretary, told The National that everything now depended on what Moscow’s reaction might be.
“The ball is very much in Russia’s court but whether Putin will deliver or not is very much up for debate,” he said. “Given his past actions, you clearly question whether he is a man to be trusted.”
A western official described the talks as “an intense few days” in which the British and French had worked “very closely” with the Americans.
“That very high level of co-operation will be significant in the weeks ahead as we hope all the work done will lead to a ceasefire,” he added.
Deft British diplomacy
Behind-the-scenes British diplomacy played out both sides of the Atlantic as the UK sought role in behind the scenes preparations for the high-profile peace breakthrough in Jeddah, officials and diplomatic sources have told The National.
Diplomatic sources told The National that the “hard yards travelled in DC” by Mr Powell in the presidential transition period last year building a relationship with his counterpart Mike Waltz was key to keeping talks going following the spectacular White House fall out on February 28.
“Powell understands that Waltz is a key man inside team Trump and perhaps more important than some realise,” the diplomat told The National.
“He has been working exceptionally hard to help assemble this deal together with the Ukrainians and Americans. He’s got Kyiv’s their buy-in as ultimately, we understood nothing could move forward without that.”
It was Britain’s close links with the Ukrainians which help shepherd them towards opening talks with America, said the diplomat.
The drive behind creating the condition for talks has largely come from Downing Street, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s hosting Mr Zelenskyy the day after his Oval Office defenestration seen as crucial in stopping an irretrievable detonation, according to the diplomat.
“We have got the all-important credibility with the Ukrainians,” they said.
But largely unseen in recent weeks has been the role played by Mr Lammy who has developed strong working relationships with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.
“The fact that Lammy had existing relationships with French and Ukrainian counterparts meant we were able to help inform the process and conversations,” a western official told The National. “He’s also been talking regularly to Rubio and was able to keep that dialogue up.”
Anglo-French pressure
This was also coupled with Mr Macron’s efforts using his relationship with Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy to help smooth relations and rally international support to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.
His interactions with Mr Starmer and other unseen diplomatic engagements between France and Britain has led to an “exceptional level of understanding” between the two nations who have largely been at loggerheads in the post-Brexit era, the diplomat added.
At the heart of discussions were efforts to “reassure Ukraine and deter Russia,” Gen Burkhard's office told The National in an email.
Work focused on developing options regarding the “composition, deployment and operational capabilities of a multinational force … whose mission will be to monitor any ceasefire after it is signed”, his office said.
