Exit polls in Germany put the Christian Democrat Party in first place after Sunday's general election and its chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz is now set to enter coalition negotiations to form a new government.
Berlin's political establishment has been shaken by a rise in the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), championed by Elon Musk, which confirmed its opposition role by taking second place, far ahead of the Social Democrats, led by departing Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The centre right led by Mr Merz, a former banker, was set to take about 30 per cent, with 20 per cent for the AfD, about double what it achieved in the last election, in 2021. At the turn of the century, Mr Merz was a rival of the former chancellor Angela Merkel before making a return to the political arena when her chosen successor failed at the last election.
Mr Merz has promised a crackdown on irregular immigration to stop votes leaking to AfD, which has revived for many some traits of the country's Nazi history. The surge of the anti-immigration AfD was fuelled by public fears over immigration and security after a spate of deadly attacks blamed on migrants, and worries about the ailing economy.
Despite the strong result, the AfD is likely to stay out of power, with all possible coalition partners refusing co-operation with the far right. As Mr Merz looks to become the next chancellor of Europe's largest economy he will have to build a majority in parliament by teaming up with one or more parties.
The German parliament, or Bundestag, expands with the number of parties polling above a threshold, so there could be a need to bring a third party into the coalition. The SPD looks likely to suffer its worst result in the history of Germany's postwar democracy, with between 16 and 16.5 per cent.
Germany is contending with stagnating growth, Russia’s war in Ukraine and US President Donald Trump's threats to start a global trade war that could have a severe effect on Germany’s struggling industrial sector.
The exact coalition opportunities available will depend on the final results for smaller parties. The far-left Linke looks to have cleared the 5 per cent hurdle to enter the Bundestag, with 8.5 to 9 per cent.
The pro-business Free Democrats, who were in government until recently, were about the 5 per cent threshold in the exit polls, as was another far-left party, newcomer the BSW.
Turnout was reported to be 84 per cent, the highest since 1990. The election of Germany's new chancellor by the Bundestag will not take place until a governing coalition has been formed. That could take months.
