Trump’s ‘moment of change’ hangs over Davos

As the minutes ticked down to Donald Trump's oath of office, panellists at Davos were asked to forecast the fate of almost every corner of the world. The audience in the Swiss Alps seemed to appreciate the enormity of the question.

The US, Europe, the Middle East, China, Africa and South America: guests at the World Economic Forum were eager for predictions from journalists on how Mr Trump's second term might play out for each of them.

Some of Mr Trump's policies may be familiar from his first term in the White House, such as tariffs on China and pressure on Iran. But much has changed since he left Washington in 2021, from the war in Ukraine to developments in the Middle East such as the war and ceasefire in Gaza and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

The National's editor-in-chief, Mina Al-Oraibi, told the Davos audience that Mr Trump was assuming power at a time of weakened international law and uncertainty over the future security architecture of Europe, the Middle East and Africa. "It is a moment of change and unpredictability and it's not clear what the Trump Doctrine will look like. But I think everyone feels like there is a moment for change that's needed," she said.

In the Gaza ceasefire talks involving Israel and Hamas "the changed factor was the US factor", she said. "This was the same deal that 13 months ago the Americans had said that they could pull off under a Joe Biden administration.

"But ultimately it was the Trump factor - Trump clearly saying there had to be a ceasefire before inauguration. That moment crystallises what people are expecting under a Trump administration that comes with many lessons from its first stint at the White House, but also lessons learned of what can be possible in the Middle East."

The Davos panel hosted by Samir Saran, the president of India's Observer Research Foundation, tipped Mr Trump to take an economically-minded approach to foreign affairs. The Economist's foreign editor Patrick Foulis predicted he would turn to New York business tactics and and trim some of America's "weak obligations" in the world.

"American deterrence has collapsed around the world. People are simply not as intimidated by this superpower," he said. "I see the Trumpian agenda essentially as a more comprehensive and forceful expression of American power on a much more limited geographic scope."

At home Mr Trump is taking office after winning the popular vote for the first time, defeating Kamala Harris, and has seen major tech companies shift towards a friendlier position. He has Elon Musk, the owner of social media giant X, on board to help him reimagine the American state.

But while his popularity is grown, some of his ideas such as scrapping birthright citizenship, and tariffs that could lead to higher prices, are less popular, said Time magazine's editor-in-chief Sam Jacobs. "Americans have gravitated towards this president but there are plenty of his ideas they have not gravitated towards," he said.

"The other big point of tension I think for this president is the fact that he ran on a pro-growth agenda and he has anti-growth policies. We have to see how these two things are going to play out."