Nato leaders will plot a fightback against Baltic Sea cable cutters at a summit in Finland early next week, with experts warning they must catch the saboteurs red-handed because they have "no good options" once the culprits have sailed away.
Eight Nato countries with a Baltic coastline will discuss "measures required" to secure their undersea connections at the special Helsinki summit on Tuesday. The talks will focus on bolstering Nato's Baltic presence and "responding to the threat posed by Russia’s shadow fleet", the Finnish president's office said.
Ships described by Germany as "dilapidated tankers" used to dodge sanctions are suspected of dragging their anchors along the Baltic seabed to cut off power and internet. Finland announced on Friday that two Nato vessels would be deployed for surveillance.
Finnish detectives found an anchor in their search for a Christmas Day cable cutter as they carry out inquiries into a vessel called Eagle S with suspected ties to Moscow. But the damage to the Estlink power cable in waters patrolled by Finland's navy and border guard was only one of a spate of incidents in recent months.
"The Finns got lucky with Eagle S. They caught her in the act of causing the damage. But that is going to remain a rare case," Elisabeth Braw, an Atlantic Council expert on resilience against hybrid threats, told The National.
"In most cases the damage happens and you have to find the culprit afterwards, and the culprit may already have left the site. Unless the ship is sailing in your territorial waters and the damage is in territorial waters, you have very few options under international maritime rules to actually do anything about it."
Deter and deny
To curb attacks, Nato has already agreed to step up vigilance in the 400,000-square kilometre Baltic Sea, which is sailed by Russian tankers. The trail of damage has also led investigators to Chinese vessels such as a bulk carrier called Yi Peng 3, which was probed over two Baltic cable incidents in November.
Britain and Germany have also raised environmental fears, after a suspected "shadow fleet" tanker became stranded near a German holiday island on Friday. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned of the risk of oil spills in a call with Estonian leader Kristen Michal, his office said.
A UK-led coalition called the Joint Expeditionary Force is providing an AI-powered tool called Nordic Warden. Developed by US tech company Palantir and trialled during exercises in Latvia, it estimates the risk posed by each vessel when it enters a sensitive area, drawing partly on the ship's reported route.
Nordic Warden has been "in active use" since the Christmas Day incident in the Baltic, Palantir's UK boss Louis Mosley revealed. The secretive big data company rarely discloses the military applications of its software.
As well as ship movements, a second focus would likely be on carriers believed to be part of Russia's "shadow fleet" which might be more likely to cause harm, said Ms Braw. The "dark" vessels linked to clandestine oil trading sometimes fail to ping their location to global trackers.
Monitoring the seas is one thing but boarding a suspicious vessel would run the risk of confrontation. The Eagle S was sailing in Finland's exclusive economic zone, an area outside its core territorial waters in which foreign vessels are generally free to navigate.
Sensitive waters
Beyond the Baltic, data cables run through sensitive waters in the Red Sea, where they were damaged during Houthi attacks last year, and the Strait of Taiwan, where a Hong Kong-owned ship is suspected of having cut a cable in early January. Taiwan said the ship sails under two names and hinted it could have been involved in past incidents in the Baltic.
It also seems "not impossible" that non-state actors could take control of a ship in order to sabotage cables, said Basil Germond, a professor of international security at Lancaster University. It remains a mystery who was responsible for the 2022 explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Germany.
"Malign actors have an advantage with hybrid warfare: the cost of deterrence and defence is higher than the cost of sabotaging," Prof Germond said. "To deter attacks, we need to cancel perpetrators’ ability to deny their involvement by collecting strong evidence on the spot.
"So, the best option is to catch perpetrators on the spot, which is called 'in flagrante delicto'. It is then easier to name and shame the perpetrator. The second best option is to react quickly to arrest the ship before it leaves the area. But then, international law requires you to obtain permission from the flag state to conduct inspections or interrogations."
The Kremlin says it is absurd to "blame Russia for everything without any reason", while China insists it "strictly fulfils its obligations under international law". Nato countries suspect the severed cables are part of a wider hostile campaign including cyber attacks, disinformation and illegal migration to the EU via Belarus.
Finland had mild weather to thank for avoiding Christmas Day power cuts, according to operators, who warned things might have been "tight" during a cold snap. Estonia said it was difficult to believe the spate of severed cables was "accidental or merely poor seamanship".
Cable construction
Companies laying cables can try to secure them by installing them deeper under the surface and fitting them with greater monitoring capabilities. Repairing cables can take months and a safety-in-numbers approach similar to how turtles lay eggs is one way to secure them.
"To improve resilience of the network it is crucial to design it in a redundant way. Indeed, if energy connectors and communication cables are redundant, disruptions will be limited in case of sabotage, albeit still costly to repair," Prof Germond said.
If the damage is done and a perpetrator gets away, it is hard to trace them and the law of the sea limits the right to board ships outside territorial waters. Any attempt to detain a vessel could lead to an escalation with Russia or China.
Nato countries could argue it was within their rights more generally to keep order in the Baltic, but Russia or China "could justifiably argue that we would be in the wrong" under the law of the sea, said Ms Braw. She has encouraged states and their citizens to come forward with ideas but has heard "no good options" so far.
"The only strategy is really to maintain increased surveillance and to respond together whenever the next attack occurs," she said. "In terms of stopping the attacks, it’s really not possible."
Part of the problem is that unlike Cold War-era pipelines, many internet cables were laid "during the good days of globalisation", she said. "The undersea infrastructure is all based on the premise that countries will get along.
"What we are seeing is this recognition that this is not just commercial infrastructure, it has geopolitical ramifications. It wasn’t a consideration at all 10 or 15 years ago, and now it’s a massive consideration."
More on animal trafficking
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.
The car
Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
Parks and accommodation
For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm . Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More on Quran memorisation:
The years Ramadan fell in May
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
THE BIO
Occupation: Specialised chief medical laboratory technologist
Age: 78
Favourite destination: Always Al Ain “Dar Al Zain”
Hobbies: his work - “ the thing which I am most passionate for and which occupied all my time in the morning and evening from 1963 to 2019”
Other hobbies: football
Favorite football club: Al Ain Sports Club
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Kandahar%20
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WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
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The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
