US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Paris on Wednesday to discuss Syria with French President Emmanuel Macron as European officials prepare to follow the US lead in partially lifting sanctions on the war-torn country.
Western leaders are stepping up meetings as several regional powers vie to strengthen their diplomatic foothold in Syria, one month after the fall of the Assad regime and the takeover by rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS). At the French foreign ministry, Mr Blinken warned of the “acute danger” posed by the possible escape of “more than 10,000 terrorist fighters detained under the vigilance of our Kurdish friends”.
“We have been working very closely with our ally, our partner, in Turkey, which has very legitimate concerns, of course, about the PKK and terrorism, to navigate this transition, in a way that leads to a resolution of many of these concerns,” Mr Blinken said. He added that this includes “the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces into Syrian national forces … and the resolution of questions around oil and borders”. Kurdish groups control about 70 per cent of Syria's oil.
As the US eases transactions with governing institutions in Syria to help the flow of humanitarian assistance, EU officials are looking at a partial lifting of sanctions ahead of a meeting of the bloc's 27 foreign ministers at the end of the month.
Unlike US sanctions, which are extraterritorial, EU sanctions do not apply outside Europe but any move on punitive measures from Brussels would give a strong signal about the continent's willingness to engage with the new rulers in Damascus. “Sanctions have adversely affected food security, agriculture and access to health care, medicine and water, among other areas,” said Mohammad Kanfash, a Syria expert at the University of St Andrews in Scotland. “Sanctions also obstructed humanitarian operations in the country.”
Conditional lifting of sanctions
A major issue is relations with HTS, which is under UN, EU and US sanctions for its former links to Al Qaeda. Publicly, European diplomats have said they are set to maintain restrictions on members of the Assad regime and chemical weapons. They have suggested they could lift sanctions on the economy and other sectors but only if the new leaders in Damascus respect their demands on political inclusivity and human rights.
Speaking before his meeting with Mr Blinken, and about a week after a trip to Damascus with his German counterpart, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said some sanctions could be “quickly” lifted, especially those that delay the delivery of aid, in a similar way to the US Treasury's general licence issued on Monday.
“There are the sanctions that targeted Bashar Al Assad and the executioners of his regime, these sanctions obviously have no vocation to be lifted,” Mr Barrot told radio France Inter. “Then there are others that today hinder access to humanitarian aid, which prevent the recovery of the country and these could be lifted quickly.”
Before meeting the French President, Mr Blinken, who will be leaving office this month when Donald Trump takes over as US president, will hold talks with Mr Barrot, on the wars in Ukraine, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, the French Foreign Ministry said. His meetings in Paris take place one day before another gathering in Rome of foreign ministers of Britain, Germany, Italy and France, alongside the EU's foreign affairs and security policy chief Kaja Kallas when Syria will again be in the spotlight.
The office of Ms Kallas said the “EU remains ready to support a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned process, with the support of the United Nations”. The former prime minister of Estonia will also meet Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was last year pushing to re-establish diplomatic ties with the Assad regime.
Europe has strong incentives to engage with Syria. The continent has been heavily impacted by the Middle Eastern country's 13 years of civil war, which featured the rise of radical groups that fomented terrorist attacks on European soil and caused mass migration to the continent, fuelling the far right.
Elsewhere, other countries are moving faster. Qatar and Turkey have already positioned themselves in Syria and sent floating power plants that have grown the country's output by 50 per cent. Infrastructure systems, particularly health, education, housing and sanitation, are absent from most parts of the country, the UN says. Western sanctions prohibit reconstruction or sending money to Syria.
Another topic of importance to western countries is linked to the threat posed by former ISIS members, currently held in prisons guarded by US-backed Kurdish groups in north-east Syria. But the HTS takeover emboldened Turkish-backed forces to push Kurdish militias out of certain areas and fighting is continuing.
Months of talks ahead
Some work on sanctions appears to be taking place behind the scenes in European capitals. Germany has put forward a proposal on the pathway to lifting measures on Syria, which it has shared with Ms Kallas' office and diplomats in Paris, The National understands.
Echoing Mr Barrot's statements, the proposal suggests maintaining sanctions on the Assad regime and chemical weapons. It also suggests a gradual lifting of restrictions on the Syrian state, but while keeping in place the possibility of reinstating them if the rulers in Damascus do not respect ethnic and religious minorities.
Included in the proposal is the possibility of lifting sanctions on Syrian Air, in addition to allowing the export of commercial assets to allow the economy to rebuild. The document also suggests opening financial channels between the EU and Syria to allow Syrians to access their personal finances.
On HTS, discussions at the UN level are recommended and would depend on a joint assessment of the group and its leader Ahmad Al Shara.
Harmonie Toros, professor in politics and international relations at the University of Reading in England, said due to Syria being subjected to so many overlapping sanctions, even if the EU were to ease measures on its own, members of the UN Security Council would all need to agree to lift theirs, which she believes could take months.
A significant stumbling block will be reassurances from HTS that it will break ties with extremist groups and distance itself from the use of extreme violence, she told The National.
“Some sanctions, such as ones relating to humanitarian aid, can be lifted easier but others could take months of negotiations,” she said. “It is going to take time. There will have to be leaps of faith on all sides that other parties will do what they say they are going to do.
“The UN is complex and it could take weeks and months depending on whether it is opposed or not. There is a technical side to it but if there is a will of the international community to move in that direction it will happen eventually.”
