Europe can't say it wasn't warned this time. Almost three years into the war in Ukraine, EU members are once again looking anxiously at their fuel prices, underground storage tanks and the weather forecast to see if they can make it through winter without natural gas bought from Russia.
Ukraine's decision to end a transit deal with Moscow that expired on January 1 has exposed countries such as Austria and Slovakia who continued to rely on Russian gas after supplies were slashed in 2022. The EU has already eaten heavily into its winter supplies and Arctic air is set to bring a cold snap over northern Europe.
On 2025's first day of trading, benchmark prices rose to their highest since October 2023 before reversing most of their gains. “The market had apparently still not fully priced this in as hopes for some form of continuation had remained,” London Stock Exchange Group analyst Ulrich Weber said in a market note.
Governments are optimistic that the EU will have enough gas this winter, with the European Commission declaring on Thursday that it had “no security of supply concerns”. But Europe could head into summer with a lot more replenishing to do for 2025/26 – and potentially at higher prices in a tight market.
A single cold day can mean the EU dipping into its reserves to the tune of more than 9,500 gigawatt hours of storage, as it did during a freezing three-day streak last January. At that rate its current supplies would last fewer than 90 days, although in fact high storage levels last winter meant there was no surge in prices.
This year, EU gas storage on New Year's Day was at the lowest for three years after the bloc burnt through supplies in November and December much faster than in 2022 or 2023, data analysed by The National reveals. Austria said it had “done its homework” and was ready to import from Germany or Italy if necessary.
Forecasts by Norway's Rystad Energy say a request from Austria could mean Italy having to source more North African gas via Tunisia. Hungary is also tipped to face “large challenges” if Austria and Moldova cannot forward gas its way. It could look to Russian supplies via Turkey.
Slovakia was more irritated, accusing Ukraine of a “unilateral step that will also harm Slovakia” due to higher prices. However, Deputy Prime Minister Denisa Sakova said the country is “prepared for this scenario” and “there is currently no threat of a gas shortage in Slovakia”. Factories shut down in Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region due to the loss of supplies.
Supply routes
Europe is undoubtedly less exposed than it was before the tectonic shift of Moscow's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In the preceding years, Russia had regularly provided more than 40 per cent of the EU's imported gas – sometimes more than half – giving the Kremlin a key strategic hold over Europe.
As the war cut off supply routes and wiring money to Russia became politically challenging, the EU looked for alternatives. Norway and Algeria stepped up pipeline exports while cargoes surged of liquefied natural gas shipped from the US. The UAE's Adnoc signed a 15-year deal to sell gas to Germany.
As the Ukrainian route closes, imports from the Middle East and North Africa – including Algerian and Libyan pipelines and Qatari LNG shipments – are poised to pull ahead of Russia as a source of EU supplies, according to figures collected by economic think tank Bruegel. Norway now holds top spot by providing more than a third of the bloc's imported gas.
Still, Russia never vanished from the picture. Energy suppliers in Austria, Slovakia and Hungary still had contracts with Kremlin-owned provider Gazprom, and the Ukrainian transit route remained open. Austria, which had a deal until 2040, was getting 98 per cent of its gas from Russia as recently as December 2023.
The EU directly imported about 33 billion cubic metres of Russian gas in 2024 – well below the 150 billion in the last prewar year, but up from 27 billion in 2023. On top of that came Russian LNG shipments to European ports, some of it on transit routes set to be banned under EU sanctions from March.
Gasfields within the EU's borders in the North Sea, Black Sea and the Carpathian basin are too minor to take much strain. Globally, a “tightness of natural gas supplies” is expected to continue into 2025 and even 2026, according to the World Bank, which warned that “if current forecasts of Europe experiencing its coldest winter since 2020 prove accurate, this would exacerbate supply tightness”.
Storage goals
The EU has managed to use a little less thanks to energy-saving campaigns and the growth of solar panels and wind farms as an alternative to gas-fired power stations. Mild winters in 2022/23 and 2023/24 ensured worst-case scenarios of power rationing did not come to pass. Still, surging prices spurred economic gloom that contributed to government after government being voted out or losing its majority in 2024 elections. And analysts expect European demand to bounce back eventually, putting a bigger strain on supply.
After two thrifty years in which the EU withdrew about 175 terawatt hours' worth of gas from storage in November and December, it dipped into its gas tanks to the tune of 283 TWh in the last two months of 2024, while also putting less away.
As a result, the EU's gas tanks were only 72.2 per cent filled when the first lights of 2025 fell on Brussels, well below the previous year's figure of 86.4 per cent although still considerably higher than in the last winter of peacetime. Figures range from a full tank in Portugal to below 60 per cent in the Netherlands and France.
Unusually, prices for summer 2025 have been higher than winter 2025/26, reflecting a “possible rush to fill storage” once this winter ends, say analysts at Dutch bank ING. They predicted in a 2025 outlook for markets that European gas demand will rise about two per cent in 2025.
“Where demand ends up will depend on how winter weather evolves,” they said. Meanwhile, robust demand for LNG in Asia “suggests that we could see increased competition between the two regions, particularly if Europe faces a bigger job [relative to 2024] to refill its storage”.
The five pillars of Islam
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4. Shahada
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34 - Ciro Immobile (68)
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
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Bharatanatyam
A ancient classical dance from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Intricate footwork and expressions are used to denote spiritual stories and ideas.
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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- Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
The five pillars of Islam
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
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Price, base: Dh359,200
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hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
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THE SPECS
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How to vote
Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.
They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi
Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday)
