Europe is scrambling to make contact with the rebel groups that took over Damascus to assess what kind of relations it wants to establish with the new Syrian leadership, more than a decade after shutting down diplomatic relations with the previous regime.
Just one week after the rebels' takeover forced President Bashar Al Assad to flee to Russia, the EU's 27 foreign affairs ministers will co-ordinate views at a meeting in Brussels on Monday on what involvement the bloc can have in Syria's political future.
In the absence of strong US leadership until the Trump administration takes office in January, Europe has the ability to influence the global response to the unfolding events in Syria. “The Europeans have a rare window of opportunity to shape Syria’s transition,” said Delaney Simon, senior analyst for the US programme at the International Crisis Group.
After the Syrian regime's brutal crackdown against demonstrators in 2011, the EU cut diplomatic ties with Damascus and issued a large number of sanctions, including against Syria's energy and banking sector. Sanctions represent an important hurdle in engaging with the country, where more than 80 per cent of Syrians live under the poverty line. There are fears of further disintegration and infighting if people's basic needs cannot be met. Reports suggest that policemen brought to Damascus from Idlib by the main rebel group, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), are stretched thin.
EU sanctions on Syria are less wide-ranging than US ones, including the Caesar Act, which is up for renewal next week in Washington. But Europe is also more directly affected by instability in Syria. Its 13-year old civil war pushed millions to seek refuge in Europe, igniting a racist far-right backlash, and saw the rise of terror groups that conducted attacks on European soil.
Europeans have issued no common position on Syria, though a humanitarian air bridge was announced on Friday, with 50 tonnes of supplies to be sent to Turkey before being driven over the border. The EU's recently appointed foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, is scheduled to attend a meeting on Sunday in Aqaba, Jordan, to discuss the situation in Syria with representatives of Arab countries and UN special envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen.
When questioned, diplomats have highlighted how little time has passed since the fall of the Assad regime, which took the world by surprise. They have said they will be closely watching to see how inclusive the new Syrian government is before taking any decisions related to engagement and, further down the line, possible recognition.
So far, there has been a mixture of positive and negative signalling from Damascus. HTS's decision to appoint bureaucrats solely from its own ranks has been viewed with suspicion in Europe, but it has also welcomed reassuring statements from the Islamist group about protecting minorities, including Christians.
“The key question now is to see how the new authorities in Damascus behave in key questions such as protecting ethnic and religious minorities,” an EU official said. “It's too early on Monday to discuss what we are going to do with our sanctions framework.
“What we have now, and it's obvious from people's expressions in the street, is the expression of a new hope, and let's see if that new hopes translates into practical things that will stabilise Syria and finally end a 50-year-old nightmare,” they added, in a reference to Hafez Al Assad's 1971 coup.
Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at think tank ECFR, warned Europeans in a recent policy brief that they must proceed with caution. “They should be wary of throwing money at the problem, which risks driving a new war economy and conflict, but should make a significant offer of intent – for example, reconstruction support if an inclusive political transition can be locked in,” he wrote.
Damascus missions
Relations with HTS represent another major stumbling block. Some contacts have already been made, suggesting a pragmatic approach from some Europeans. On Tuesday, Italy's charge d'affaires, Stefano Ravagnan, met representatives of the new government in Damascus, alongside Arab countries. France's Paris-based special envoy to Syria, Jean-Christophe Guillaume, is expected to go to Syria in the coming days. While Mr Ravagnan appears to have met HTS officials, it remains unclear who Mr Guillaume will meet in Damascus.
Echoing the opinion of several observers, the EU official compared the situation in Syria with the Taliban's 2021 takeover of Afghanistan. “You remember the Taliban? We engaged with the Taliban. We never recognised the Taliban,” they said. “What we are now thinking is to establish contact, to pass messages about our expectations.”
Germany's Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock on Thursday presented an eight-point plan to support Syria, which included the allocation of €8 million ($8.4 million) in humanitarian aid for Syria and the nomination of a special envoy for Syria, Tobias Lindner. Discussions on the conditions Berlin will set before meeting HTS are continuing.
The EU says it does not engage with HTS because it was listed as a terror organisation in 2014 due to its links with Al Qaeda, from which it broke off two years later. But the EU official appeared optimistic about HTS's choice of interim Prime Minister of Syria, Mohammed Al Bashir. A bureaucrat, Mr Al Bashir ran the “Salvation Government” in the north-western area of Idlib, which had been outside the control of the Assad regime since 2015. The Salvation Government “behaved in a way that was far from extremist, or jihadist … so let's see how that translates into the 48 per cent of the territory they now control,” the EU official said.
There is little doubt, however, that European countries will be hoping for a sliver of influence in the region as Iranian and Russian positions are weakened. “Syria has a particularity. It is the source of the two biggest crises in Europe before [the war in] Ukraine: ISIS and refugees,” said Jihad Yazigi, editor and publisher of the online publication The Syria Report. “So you could see things moving more faster than other places.”
For now, HTS appears to be enjoying a honeymoon period but it will have to quickly work on fixing the economy to keep the population on its side. Syria's chronic electricity shortages may worsen after Iran, which provided about one third of oil imports to former government-controlled territories, stopped its shipments after the fall of the Assad regime. “It’s not just about keeping the lights on. It's also about keeping industries and infrastructure afloat – trade, transport, water purification – that are all energy dependent,” said Aron Lund, Syria analyst from Century International.
There are some positive economic and financial developments that may lengthen HTS's grace period, said Mr Yazigi. One is the Damascus Chamber of Commerce's announcement on Tuesday that it would lift all controls on market prices. Another is that the Syrian dollar quickly stabilised after losing more than 80 per cent of its value on Sunday, the day rebels entered Damascus. “I think [HTS] have a few months ahead of them,” Mr Yazigi said.
Sanctions choices
Whether the EU will want to lift its sanctions, which could strengthen HTS, remains an open question. This must be resolved quickly if Europe wants a stable Syria, said Ms Simon. “The promise of sanctions relief would give Syria’s new leaders an incentive to adopt policies that set Syria on the right track. But the longer Syria remains under a near-full embargo, the more likely it is that the country will descend into chaos – to the detriment of European interests.”
The de-listing of HTS as a terrorist organisation from the UN Security Council is a decision that may be put forward by the US, which originally suggested the listing in 2014, said Jerome Drevon, senior analyst on jihad and modern conflict at the International Crisis Group. There is no possible veto against such a decision.
Another possibility is that HTS dismantles itself. The listing of the new organisation would have to be adopted by consensus. “You’d expect European countries, like the UK, or France, to oppose the new listing,” Mr Drevon told The National. The US would still wield significant power with its own unilateral sanctions, and it would ultimately be up to Donald Trump as president to decide whether he would want to de-list HTS.
Most observers believe that sanctions cannot all be lifted in one go. Instead, the most obvious route would be to keep sanctions on human rights violators to signal that they must still be judged, as well as a weapons embargo, but lift sectoral sanctions to boost private investment and humanitarian support.
“EU sanctions targeted the Assad regime, which is not in place any more. So there is a huge need for explanation: are they keeping the sanctions? If yes, what would they look like?” said a European campaigner based in Syria.
