'The next 48 to 72 hours will be critical': Inside plans by Cyprus to host Lebanon evacuees

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Large green tents near Larnaca International Airport in Cyprus have been prepared for almost a year as Israel's war reaches Lebanon.

Now, in a tragic echo of Cyprus's role in assisting people fleeing the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, it looks like these temporary shelters might finally be put to use to host thousands, as Israel intensifies its bombing campaign.

“The next 48 to 72 hours will be critical,” Maj Andreas Zacharia, deputy commander of the Joint Rescue Co-ordination Centre, an agency of the Cyprus Ministry of Defence, told The National. “The situation is escalating day by day. It's difficult to predict what will happen, but we think there may be a large-scale operation.”

No country has announced an official evacuation plan, but deadly Israeli strikes on Lebanon in the past weeks have already pushed tens of thousands to leave either by plane or by land to Syria, in some cases with the assistance of their local embassies. Israel on Friday bombed the main border crossing to Syria, saying it was targeting Hezbollah weapons caches.

The closest EU country to the Levant, the island of Cyprus lies 144km from the Lebanese coast, a 10-hour trip by sea. Larnaca Airport has in the past 10 days witnessed a flurry of arrivals from Lebanon, as countries such as France have asked the national carrier, Middle East Airlines, to increase flight frequencies to for citizens wishing to leave. The UK has so far organised three flights.

Cypriot Foreign Affairs Minister Constantinos Kombos said that on Thursday a plane landed from Beirut carrying 38 Cypriots and 22 Greek nationals after consultation between the countries' defence ministries. Most of Lebanon's 900 or so shelters are full, according to the UN. People fleeing Israeli military strikes are increasingly sleeping out in the open on the street or in parks.

“We hope we are ready”

In 2006, Cyprus was caught like many by surprise by the mass evacuations caused by the full-blown Hezbollah-Israel war. The closure of the airport in Beirut forced more than 100,000 people to flee via Cyprus. Two years later, it established the so-called Estia plan to increase its level of preparedness and assist large numbers of evacuees from nearby countries in crisis by providing them a temporary safe haven.

Annual exercises followed, involving hundreds of participants from 25 countries, including from the EU, the US, Canada and Australia, to help them become familiar with Estia. “Lessons learnt from 2006 drove us to develop this plan in the unfortunate event of a new crisis,” said Maj Zacharia. “We hope we are ready.”

For the third time since its establishment, the Estia plan was activated by the Cypriot state on Tuesday night as the situation escalates in Lebanon. The first was after the start of a civil war in Sudan in April 2023, and the second, following the Hamas-led October 7 attacks against Israel. Operations are overseen by the JRCC – also known as Zenon – which is located near Larnaca Airport.

Numbers so far have been much lower than in 2006. Around 3,000 people fled Sudan conflict via Cyprus, and another 2,500 people from 32 countries transited through the island from Israel last year.

That was when Maj Zacharia, ordered tents to be set up near the JRCC, where more than 40 people working under the Defence Ministry run what is described as the “brain” of crisis management in the country. Combined with 12 prefab buildings, they can host for up to six hours up to 300 people, as they rest before taking another flight for repatriation.

Earlier evacuees left, but the tents have stayed. “Since October 7, the situation has never been calm, with the constant conflict between Hamas and Israel,” said Maj Zacharia. “So, there was always a possibility of escalation to neighbouring countries – including Lebanon.”

Should evacuations start in the coming days, the Cypriot government also plans to temporarily accommodate people on other premises including military bases, schools and sports centres.

“We need a smooth flow of evacuees,” said Maj Zacharia. With a population of just under one million people, Cyprus cannot afford to have thousands more stay long-term. The coming days will be a test of more than 15 years of preparation for another full-blown Middle East war.