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Calls by the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell for capitals to embrace new sanctions against Israel are likely to be rebuffed despite rising tensions with the Israeli government.
Mr Borrell, a Spanish official, said that “sanctions should be on our EU agenda” after comments made by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich justifying the starvation of the entire Gaza Strip and by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir calling to cut off all aid to the embattled enclave.
Mr Smotrich's comments have triggered a chorus of condemnation, including from the US. On Tuesday, an EU spokeswoman declined to say whether Mr Borrell had drafted a new sanctions proposal for the bloc's 27 foreign affairs ministers, scheduled to meet informally at the end of the month.
“The process is confidential and we don’t comment on the process,” said spokeswoman Nabila Massrali.
EU sanctions must be adopted by consensus and it remains unlikely that major countries such as Germany and France would agree to issuing fresh sanctions against Israel.
Criticism against Mr Smotrich or Mr Ben Gvir has so far caused them to double down on their positions. On Tuesday, Mr Ben Gvir visited Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem after more than 1,000 Israeli settlers stormed the mosque.
According to an agreement between Israel and Jordan, which oversees Al Aqsa compound, Jewish worshippers are prohibited from performing prayers at the site.
programme manager for the Middle East and North Africa at the ECFR
The EU has struck a cautious approach to the conflict, often introduced with several weeks' delay similar sanctions to those previously adopted by the US, whether it's against Hamas officials or extremist Israeli settlers.
Mr Borrell's harsh words must be placed in the context of the end-of-year wrap-up of his five-year mandate.
“This is part of his legacy,” said Kelly Petillo, programme manager for the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“Mr Borrell is in exit mode now and has a desire to come out more strongly to advance the more progressive EU line that indeed contemplates sanctions to some Israeli cabinet ministers as a real possibility, to which some EU countries subscribe,” she told The National.
However, there is a growing exasperation with the Israeli government in European capitals. Germany and France have signalled their frustration at its aggressive diplomatic response to those who say Israel should be held to account for possible war crimes in its war in Gaza.
They both admonished Israel last week for expelling eight Norwegian diplomats, citing both Oslo's recognition of Palestinian statehood and its support to the International Criminal Court.
In May, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant as well as Hamas leaders.
Norway has been singled out by Israel, which also threatened to block the work of Spanish diplomats dealing with Palestinians in May.
Israel appears to not have moved forward with the threat despite Spain recognising Palestinian statehood alongside Ireland and Norway.
Norway, which is still considering its response to the Israeli decision, plays an important diplomatic role as the guardian of the Oslo Accords and the administrator of Palestinian Authority funds.
It also chairs the ad hoc liaison committee, which co-ordinates the delivery of aid to Palestinian territories.
“It hasn't been formally kicked out of its role but it's become more difficult as they don't have diplomats on the ground,” Jorgen Jensehaugen, senior researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, told The National.
Norway is trying out “more of an activist” role to find a solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, decades after the failure of the Oslo Accords, according to Mr Jensehaugen.
It remains to be seen how Oslo chooses to react to the expulsion of its diplomats, but sanctions against Israel would represent a dramatic escalation compared to its previous positions.
In March, the Norwegian government advised businesses against investing in occupied territories. “I can see them escalating that, but not sanctioning Israel per se,” said Mr Jensehaugen.
That Norway has garnered international support in its positioning on Israel may be a signal that thinking is slowly turning against the Netanyahu government.
There was no comparable support for Sweden after it recognised Palestinian statehood in 2014.
“There's a shift with lots of states more fed up with Israel and its conduct of the war,” said Mr Jensehaugen, also pointing at the new British Labour government withdrawing a letter by its predecessor saying the ICC has no mandate over Palestinian territories, last month.
“Left-wing politicians in Europe will become more willing to pressure Israel,” said Mr Jensehaugen.
There is a growing concern in Europe that Mr Netanyahu is not acting in the interest of the remaining hostages in Gaza but for self-preservation, said Ms Petillo.
“Things are slowly changing and there is slightly more appetite within the EU to push back against Israel’s actions,” she said.
