F-16 fighters will fly in Ukraine's airspace in combat for the first time within weeks, providing a well-timed significant boost to its air defences.
Described by experts as the “world’s most agile fighter” – and a much hyped element of this week’s Nato summit in Washington – the US-made jet will be used primarily to shoot down the barrage of cruise missiles, deadly glide bombs and drones used by Russia to target Ukraine’s power infrastructure.
While it is unlikely that the West will lift restrictions on them fighting in Russia itself, the jets will be able to use their AMRAAM (advanced medium range air-to-air missiles) with a range of 120km to shoot down enemy fighters from within Ukraine airspace.
The fast jets could be used to mount daring raids on Russian airbases.
Whether that will be enough to turn the tide against Russia’s continued summer offensive remains to be seen.
Bulking out
Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s national security adviser, said on Thursday the transfer of jets is under way and they will be operational in Ukraine by summer. Mr Sullivan added that the F-16s are expected to defend frontline forces in the short term and help retake territory “down the road”. He declined to provide further details.
The first F-16s are set to arrive early next month with up to 85 in total promised by the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway and Denmark.
However, so far only about 20 pilots have been pushed through a shortened training conversion course to fly the jets.
But they will almost certainly be thrown into the fight as Ukraine’s stock of Russian-made MiG-29 and Sukhoi-27 jets have suffered significantly over two years of battle, with each aircraft type put at below 20 serviceable fighters.
“Straight off the bat, these new jets will bulk out Ukraine’s forces, enabling them to be much more aggressive in their efforts to create a safe space along the border area,” said Gareth Jennings, aviation editor at Janes, the defence intelligence company.
He added that the F-16s will not be the most modern produced, yet they have been upgraded with improved weapon systems and radar.
But the Ukrainians are also set to give the multirole fighters a bombing role by adapting them to use the precision-guided Jdam bomb, the French Hammer munition and the UK’s Storm Shadow cruise missile.
The Ukrainians are expected to use the well-honed Israeli F-16 tactic of manoeuvring the fighter to get within range of shooting down a relatively slow-moving cruise missile or drone either with its guns or missiles.
It is also likely to use its Aim 120 air-to-air missiles against the glide bombs released by Russian jets within their airspace that can fly for 60km and have proved deadly against Ukrainian frontline positions.
But, argued aviation expert Paul Beaver, the F-16s will not engage in dogfights, as the Russians have adapted to firing their missiles hundreds of kilometres from Ukraine airspace, usually from over the Caspian Sea.
“This is not about air supremacy or superiority, this is about air defence and the Ukrainians have a much better chance of destroying the missiles in flight than they will attacking the mother aircraft deep into Russian airspace.”
Military aircraft analyst Tim Ripley said the F-16s could be used as a “guerrilla raiding force” in which they spot “a weakness in Russian defences then launch an attack on a high-profile target” and return without being shot down.
Propaganda value
The F-16s will certainly present a key target with Moscow’s generals fully aware of the propaganda value of shooting them down.
A fully loaded F-16 has a range of about 500km meaning they will have to fly from bases in eastern Ukraine to get within range of Russia’s weapons.
Ukraine’s air force is understood to have suffered the loss of five Su-27s at Myrhorod airfield last month after an Iskander missile strike.
They will therefore continue the tactic of basing aircraft in western Ukraine before flying them forward to eastern bases where they quickly refuel before continuing their mission.
Russian air failure
Despite having significantly greater numbers of aircraft and trained pilots than Ukraine, with more than 500 fighters, the Russian air force has not been able to establish air supremacy during the conflict, an advantage Nato militaries would seek as a primary aim.
This is due mainly to the advanced air defence missile systems that the West has given Ukraine, from Patriot batteries to shorter-range Starstreak and Stinger surface-to-air missiles.
According to Kyiv's estimates from April, the Russians have lost 347 fixed-wing aircraft and 325 helicopters since their 2022 invasion. Their situational awareness has been further hampered by Ukraine shooting down several of their Awacs airborne early warning aircraft.
They have not been helped by a poor training programme or by their fighters, including the advanced Su-35s that “don’t quite match up to what the brochure states”, said Mr Jennings.
No silver bullet
The high casualty rate has largely forced the Russians to fight from within their own airspace to avoid being shot down. However, that tactic may now come under pressure if the Ukrainians are able to effectively deploy the F-16s.
“But they won’t be a game-changer because Russia will work out quickly how to counter F-16s having anticipated this,” said Brigadier Ben Barry, of the IISS think tank. “But where they come in very useful is where they can quickly be moved to fill a gap in Ukraine’s air defences.”
The F-16s could well become the “Leopard tanks” of last year’s botched summer offensive in which the much-touted German-made armour failed to make progress in heavy minefields, said Mr Ripley.
“That is my prediction, because you are going to set off a war of attrition in the air, so it's not beyond the realm that half of the F-16s are shot down and another quarter will crash because they've been rushed into service, and at risk.”
Jim Townsend, a senior fellow at the Centre for a New American Security, said “people shouldn’t expect miracles” from the F-16s against Russia. In terms of vulnerabilities, “those airfields are going to be nice, juicy targets and the Russians have already been hitting some of them, just as a 'welcome to the real world' for these F-16s”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the delivery of F-16s will help bring an end to more than two years of fighting with Russia.
“F-16s bring just and lasting peace closer, demonstrating that terror must fail everywhere and at any time,” he said in a statement on social media.
