Russia and Ukraine may have struggled to make battlefield gains for more than 16 months but a new phase of the war has wider repercussions.
Both sides are now attacking energy assets to damage their enemy’s economy and collateral damage can be seen in global markets.
The International Energy Agency has said Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries are likely to disrupt trade in products such as diesel. European gas prices jumped as much as 10 per cent after Russia struck Ukraine’s gas and power infrastructure this week.
Ukraine’s army is facing ammunition supply shortages, while the US is stalling new funding and European allies are trying to figure out how to build and ship more weapons to Kyiv.
The latest Ukrainian strategy is to attack Russian energy facilities, despite Washington voicing concern about the effect on oil and gas prices.
So far this year, Ukraine has hit 14 major refineries and two smaller plants in Russia, with most of the attacks in disrupting operations to some degree.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has launched three large-scale assaults on Ukraine’s electricity network and directed drones and missiles at key gas infrastructure for the first time since its invasion more than two years ago.
On Thursday, Russia destroyed the largest power plant in the Kyiv region in what President Vladimir Putin said was a tit-for-tat response to Ukraine’s attacks.
What has changed is that targets that were previously off limits are now coming into play, according to Sergey Vakulenko, who spent a decade as an executive at a Russian oil producer and is now a scholar at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Both sides are probably realising that the war on the front is turning into a stalemate and they cannot get any decisive outcome there,” Mr Vakulenko said.
“It also seems that initially there were certain explicit or implicit gentlemen’s agreements making some targets off-limits. After two years of brutal war, some if not most of these agreements are probably dead.”
The escalation might also simply be down to new military capabilities. Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian energy sites has been larger and better planned than the attacks in the previous two years, knocking out generating plants and damaging power supplies.
For its part, Ukraine is at its most fragile moment since Russia’s invasion, according to western officials.
Kyiv is using long-range drones to attack the oil refineries in an attempt to disrupt fuel supplies to the army, hit Russia’s finances and the Russian population psychologically. But Russian forces remain formidable.
Ukraine’s recent strikes come at a time of ammunition and manpower shortages and depletion of its air defence after a failed counteroffensive last year.
Russia has claimed gains in Ukraine’s east, although it remains to be seen whether the Kremlin will have the resources to deliver a significant breakthrough.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin urged Ukraine to focus on military targets instead because of the impact on global markets. Ukraine has warned, though, that it could lose the war if more than $61 billion worth of aid held up by Congress for months is not approved.
Ukraine is in close contact with its allies and has listened to their concerns, sources close to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
The lack of ammunition and Russian attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities means Kyiv has to do everything to hit back, the sources said.
Officials also questioned US statements that attacks may push up petrol prices, arguing that if Russia is forced to reduce refining it will increase exports of crude oil to the countries not involved in sanctions.
Ukraine has attacked refineries with combined capacity of about 3.4 million barrels a day, Bloomberg calculations indicated.
However, some of the affected facilities can deploy spare or underused processing units. Undamaged plants are also raising their throughput.
Drones have reached targets as far away as 1,200km. Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co said that puts 19 Russian refineries with a combined capacity of 3.8 million barrels a day – or more than half the nation’s capacity – in play. If the range increases to 1,500km, another 600,000 barrels would be at risk, they wrote.
Russia expects to have all the damaged refineries repaired by June, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov told said this month.
Officials including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak have also reaffirm the domestic fuel market remains stable and demand is being fully met.
In Kyiv, meanwhile, the Russian strike this week set ablaze the turbine hall of the coal-fired Trypilska plant about 45km south of the capital. It was hit by six missiles, a source said.
For Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow think tank Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, it is a reminder of the war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s after an impasse on the battlefield. Cities and their infrastructure then became more embroiled in the conflict, he said.
“The stalemate at the front is pushing both sides to try to pressure the civilian population and economy of their opponent,” Mr Pukhov said.
“This reminds one increasingly of the ‘war of the cities’. Russia has the most resources and ability to harm Ukraine.”
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
The specs
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The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
More on Quran memorisation:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
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Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
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The biog
Favourite book: Animal Farm by George Orwell
Favourite music: Classical
Hobbies: Reading and writing
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
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Second ODI
England 322-7 (50 ovs)
India 236 (50 ovs)
England win by 86 runs
Next match: Tuesday, July 17, Headingley
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
