France leads push to influence Trump on Gaza before Netanyahu meeting

French President Emmanuel Macron started an impromptu phone call with Donald Trump in the streets of New York earlier this week.

"I would love if we have a short discussion with Qatar and you about the situation in Gaza," he told the US President.

Mr Macron was stuck in a security freeze in New York because of Mr Trump's motorcade, just hours after giving a historic speech in which he recognised Palestine alongside a dozen other western countries.

So he pulled out his phone to call Mr Trump, making use of the moment to try to rally him to his vision for peace in the Middle East. Although Mr Trump is famously hard to predict, there are signs that he might be listening.

"His words of wisdom mean a lot and we've been friends for a long time now," Mr Trump said the next day as he sat down next to Mr Macron for a meeting.

Mr Trump's opposition to Palestinian recognition was also milder than expected – he simply repeated Israel's words about on it being a gift to Hamas.

Although they have publicly disagreed on Palestinian recognition, the two leaders have always had good personal relations. In New York, Mr Macron’s aim has been to influence Mr Trump’s thinking before his meeting on Monday in Washington with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

During his visit, Mr Netanyahu might announce retaliatory measures against France for leading the recognition effort of Palestinian statehood, which was joined by 11 other western states.

But the biggest red line for Europeans and Arab states, particularly the UAE, is the Israeli cabinet considering annexation of the West Bank as a retaliatory move.

Other French and Arab demands include no forced displacement of Gazans, a reinforced Palestinian Authority and contiguity between the West Bank and Gaza.

Spirit of the Abraham Accords

These demands are in line with the spirit of the Abraham Accords, which the US President spoke of in his UNGA speech. “Now after ending all of these wars and also earlier negotiating the Abraham Accords — which is a very big thing for which our country received no credit — everyone says I should get the Nobel Peace Prize for each one of these achievements," Mr Trump said.

Mr Macron warned him that would happen only if he solved the Gaza conflict. "I see an American president who is mobilised, who says 'I want the Nobel Peace Prize.' The Nobel Peace Prize is only possible if you stop this conflict," Mr Macron told BFMTV.

Yet there is still a long way to go before the US supports France's vision for solving the Israel-Palestine conflict. It was the notable absentee from the 142 states that endorsed on September 12 the French-Saudi declaration, which outlines an Israeli-Palestinian road map.

A coming breakthrough?

The French hope that Mr Trump will soon change his mind and endorse the New York Declaration because this will, in their view, help his goals of obtaining a ceasefire and the release of the remaining hostages. The thinking is that a ceasefire requires a "day after" plan that needs Arab support, which would require Palestinian statehood.

US envoy Steve Witkoff has said that Mr Trump had presented a plan to Arab countries at a meeting on Tuesday that would enable a "breakthrough" in days.

“The US administration appears to have understood that there is a need to have a day-after plan in order to obtain a ceasefire,” a French diplomatic source said. “’Our aim in the past days is to make sure Netanyahu doesn’t take irreversible decisions and that Trump presents him a Blair-Kushner plan that is enriched with our discussions.”

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are reported to have briefed the US President in the past weeks on a post-war plan. The plan has evolved from paying Gazans to leave the enclave to establishing a “property rights preservation unit", according to the Times of Israel.

In closed-door side meetings at UNGA, states that back the French-Saudi initiative have already been discussing concrete ways of stabilising Gaza after a ceasefire is obtained.

Foreign ministers from France, Britain, other western states, as well as Indonesia, talked about how to finance the training of Palestinian security officers who will eventually be posted in Gaza when Hamas is removed. Efforts are already under way in Egypt and Jordan. The EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, reportedly said the bloc would be happy to finance the training.

There will also be a need for peacekeepers. Indonesia has publicly pledged to contribute at least 20,000 troops. Italy and France have sent security officers in existing EU-financed training missions for Palestinian police and customs, namely Eupol Copps and Eubam Rafah.

Ultimately, the French diplomatic source said, Arabs and Europeans want their visions for the region to merge with Mr Trump’s.

“We’re saying: we welcome your efforts on Gaza. And here are the lines that you must hold, if you want us to participate in your plans,” the source said.