As climate change leads to extreme weather and wildfires, it has never been more important to forecast what lies ahead so that at-risk areas can be evacuated and the emergency services properly deployed.
In August, parts of the Middle East suffered scorching temperatures because of a heat dome, while this year the EU had its worst wildfire season.
But are the climatic factors that are causing these more severe conditions also making it harder to predict what will happen?
Forecasting in a warmer world
“The atmospheric state may become less predictable in hotter worlds than in colder worlds,” said Dr Simon Driscoll, a senior research associate in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge.
Forecasting models based on past data may be more likely to miss, for example, heatwaves, although balanced against this is the reality that improvements in computational power and satellites have, overall, resulted in “slow progress” in weather forecasting.
When it comes to wildfires, challenges are also emerging. Stefan Doerr, professor of wild land fire science at Swansea University in the UK, said that climate change had altered the relationship between seasons and the fire risk that they were associated with, making seasonal wildfire forecasting harder. The use of past data can complicate wildfire forecasting just as it can weather forecasting.
“There’s another problem: once fires become large, they generate their own extreme weather and even produce tornadoes,” Prof Doerr said.
“That’s still rare, but we’re seeing it [more] round the world over the last few years, making fires even more dangerous and unpredictable.”
Wildfires: New seasons, new risks
While climate change may complicate the forecasting of wildfires and the weather, improvements in computational power and satellite data are leading to progress in forecasts.
And a major development in recent years has been the use in forecasting of machine learning, a type of artificial intelligence (AI) in which machines learn from experience.
It is being used to predict the weather, wildfires, tsunamis and even earthquakes, and in some instances these forecasts can be faster and cheaper to generate, much less demanding in energy terms and potentially more accurate.
The rapidly growing field of machine learning-based forecasting involves multiple institutions, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), a pan-European organisation supported by 35 nations.
Their machine learning approach to wildfire forecasting, Probability of Fire, gives the likelihood of a fire developing at any given location up to 10 days ahead.
AI evolution and weather forecasting
Dr Joe McNorton, an ECMWF scientist, said that until AI’s influence, fire forecasting involved four key weather elements – temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation – and had evolved little in the past half century.
“The real contribution of AI and machine learning in the field has been the ability to just throw lots of odd data at it,” he said.
“Odd in the sense that in the modelling of weather or fire, it’s data that we wouldn’t have considered before, like population density or urban information – things that don’t offer a simple physical connection to fire, but somehow this black box of machine learning can interpretand produce something more meaningful.”
Given that past climatic or wildfire activity may be less relevant to the present day, an advantage of AI wildfire forecasting is that it does not necessarily depend on data going back a long way. AI wildfire models like those developed at the ECMWF are typically trained on information from just the past five or 10 years, which remains a reliable guide to present-day behaviour.
Dr McNorton said that the AI models were able to predict “quite well” the extreme wildfires that Canada has experienced since 2023, even though the data on which they were trained did not include such out-of-the-ordinary scenarios.
“So it seems relatively robust to record-breaking heatwaves and multiyear droughts and things like that, but we can constantly retrain it,” he said.
The approach uses “decision trees”, a series of yes and no questions, such as whether the temperature is above a certain level or whether the precipitation is below a particular threshold. It works through this chain of decision trees until it reaches a final probability.
Balancing energy use and AI
While there are multiple ways in which AI forecasting models can work, typically they require much less energy than conventional approaches.
The ECMWF has an AI-based weather forecasting model that, since early this year, has run alongside a conventional physics-based forecasting model. The AI model uses just a thousandth as much energy.
Energy use is so much less because when AI generates weather forecasts it tends not to need to model the myriad complex physical processes, such as cloud formation, that determine what the weather is going to be like.
According to Hannah Cloke, an ECMWF research fellow and professor of hydrology at the University of Reading in the UK, the organisation’s AI weather forecasting model has shown itself to be comparable to or, in some respects, better than traditional forecasting.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
BMW M5 specs
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
The years Ramadan fell in May
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Huroob Ezterari
Director: Ahmed Moussa
Starring: Ahmed El Sakka, Amir Karara, Ghada Adel and Moustafa Mohammed
Three stars
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
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Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs: 2019 Lincoln MKC
Price, base / as tested: Dh169,995 / Dh192,045
Engine: Turbocharged, 2.0-litre, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power: 253hp @ 5,500rpm
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Fuel economy, combined: 10.7L / 100km
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
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Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
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On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
A cheaper choice
Vanuatu: $130,000
Why on earth pick Vanuatu? Easy. The South Pacific country has no income tax, wealth tax, capital gains or inheritance tax. And in 2015, when it was hit by Cyclone Pam, it signed an agreement with the EU that gave it some serious passport power.
Cost: A minimum investment of $130,000 for a family of up to four, plus $25,000 in fees.
Criteria: Applicants must have a minimum net worth of $250,000. The process take six to eight weeks, after which the investor must travel to Vanuatu or Hong Kong to take the oath of allegiance. Citizenship and passport are normally provided on the same day.
Benefits: No tax, no restrictions on dual citizenship, no requirement to visit or reside to retain a passport. Visa-free access to 129 countries.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
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Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
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Price: From Dh590,000
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Rock in a Hard Place: Music and Mayhem in the Middle East
Orlando Crowcroft
Zed Books
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
