What’s behind the enduring India-Pakistan conflict?

Two weeks after a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir, India says it has conducted air strikes on what it called “terrorist camps” in neighbouring Pakistan, while Pakistan says it shot down five Indian planes in retaliation.

The two nations have been at loggerheads since their violent and bloody partition after independence from Britain in 1947.

Tensions have occasionally boiled over into armed conflict. The main focus of the rivalry is Kashmir, an area of the Himalayas that both India and Pakistan claim in its entirety while governing separate parts.

Why do India and Pakistan distrust each other?

At independence, the countries were split along religious lines, with Pakistan becoming predominantly Muslim and India choosing secular democracy for its mostly Hindu population. The drawing of new borders by the British uprooted almost 14 million people and resulted in sectarian violence that killed as many as one million people.

India and Pakistan have fought wars since then, two of them over Kashmir, with scores of skirmishes in between. Pakistan’s leaders have seen India as an existential threat since partition; some think India still harbours hopes of reversing the split.

Indian intelligence services have linked a succession of terrorist attacks carried out between 2001 and 2019 to Pakistan. Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan vowed to curb militant groups, but failed. The country’s civilian leaders have little power to shape foreign and security policy, which is largely the preserve of the army and Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency.

Why is Kashmir a flashpoint?

At the time of partition, India and Pakistan courted the subcontinent’s various kingdoms, which were only indirectly ruled by the British, to join their fledgling nations. The Hindu ruler of Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir, a region about the size of the UK and with a population of about 12 million today, dithered. Pakistan sponsored an invasion by irregular fighters, India intervened and the two countries fought to a stalemate.

Today, they face off along a 740km de facto boundary known as the Line of Control, one of the world’s most militarised zones. The region also includes two areas that are controlled by China and claimed by India.

New Delhi accuses Islamabad of sponsoring militants who are active in Kashmir, while Pakistan says India’s government mistreats Kashmir’s Muslims, and has described the militants as freedom fighters. India’s government says they have been trained and funded by Pakistan’s military, and that their leaders continue to live freely in Pakistan.

In 2019, New Delhi moved to tighten its control over Kashmir by revoking constitutional guarantees and flooding the region with more soldiers. In recent years, the area known for its dramatic mountain landscapes and lush valleys has become popular with tourists again.

How did the Kashmir attack alter the situation?

Within 14 hours of the Kashmir attack on April 22, India had downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan, while Pakistan had banned Indian planes from its airspace and halted cross-border trade.

The closure of Pakistan’s airspace is forcing Indian airlines to take long detours for flights heading west, increasing their operating costs. Visitor numbers to Kashmir are likely to fall.

In a more worrying development, India suspended a crucial water-sharing pact, the Indus Waters Treaty, which could have a serious impact on Pakistan in the long term.

The treaty governs the distribution of water from six rivers flowing from the Himalayas that are major sources for irrigating fertile land and generating electricity in both countries. It took almost a decade to formalise in the 1960s, with the World Bank acting as a mediator. The treaty gives the two nations the use of three rivers each, and provides a detailed map on how either country may or may not use the other’s resources.

How likely is war?

A full-scale war on multiple fronts would break with decades of precedent. Both countries’ governments are aware of the dangers of escalation, and world powers have in the past convinced them to back away from hostilities, aware of the risk that either side might reach for its nuclear missiles.

Thousands were killed in the wars of 1947 and 1965, while conflicts since then have been more contained. Fighting in Kashmir’s Kargil region in 1999 ended after less than three months following intense pressure on Pakistan by the US and a threat to withdraw International Monetary Fund loans to Islamabad.

Flare-ups in recent years have been even more short-lived. In 2019, India launched air strikes within Pakistan’s borders for the first time in decades and, even after an aerial fight, both countries de-escalated tension swiftly.

A substantial rapprochement between the two nations appears unlikely. India’s stance on Pakistan has become more intransigent under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist, and India has said it will start peace talks only if Pakistan cracks down on militant groups within its borders.

Even if Pakistan’s civilian government wanted to bury hostilities, it would first need to win over a military establishment that has consistently spurned any such move.

Agencies contributed to this report