Merz's election is boost for Israel as new German Chancellor meets Macron in Paris

Friedrich Merz is embarking on a series of diplomatic engagements after his election as German Chancellor, with Israel featuring heavily.

Mr Merz, a centre-right politician, travelled to Paris on Wednesday to meet French President Emmanuel Macron after he was elected in the second round of voting in the Bundestag on May 6. His failure in the first was widely viewed as a humiliation not seen since after the Second World War.

The situation in the Middle East was on the agenda for talks, although priorities were European security and competitiveness. The two leaders, who share the same pro-Ukraine views, vowed to increase security co-operation in the face of Russian threats. In a joint press conference, they both expressed alarm over Israel's two month blockade of Gaza, which Mr Macron described as “unacceptable.”

Johann Wadephul, who is set to become Germany's Foreign Minister, will be travelling to Israel this weekend, Mr Merz said. “He will make it clear that we are unconditionally on Israel's side … but it also has a humanitarian obligation to protect the civilian populations,” Mr Merz said. Israeli President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to visit Germany early next week, according to Israeli media reports.

Despite concerns over Israel's aims to fully occupy the Gaza Strip and control humanitarian aid distribution to the Palestinian population, there is an expectation that Germany will increase weapons exports to Israel under Mr Merz's chancellorship.

During his campaign, Mr Merz pledged to lift certain restrictions on arms sales put in place under former chancellor Olaf Scholz. German weapons exports to Israel more than halved in 2024 amid legal challenges, prompting criticism from Mr Merz last year.

“If there was any hesitation of the previous government with provision of arms, it’s unlikely it’ll be the case with the new government,” said Human Rights Watch associate director in Brussels, Claudio Francavilla. While Germany maintains a formal case-by-case review of weapons exports, human rights groups said that this scrutiny may be weakened.

“Germany will now try to reposition itself as more overtly supportive of Israel, even if it means sidestepping its obligations under international law,” said Hussein Baoumi, foreign policy officer at Amnesty International EU's office.

Key EU role

Germany, the European Union's most populous nation and the world's largest arms supplier to Israel after the US, plays a leading role in shaping foreign and security policy across the 27-member bloc. It is the biggest of the EU's five most staunchly pro-Israel countries, alongside Hungary, the Czech Republic, Austria and Italy.

Berlin has opposed discussions within the bloc on Israel's alleged violations of human rights and the laws of war in Gaza, which, if confirmed, may push the EU to restrict its free trade agreement with Israel. This would be a major move as the EU is Israel's most important trading partner. “Germany is against EU statements acknowledging, attributing, and condemning Israel's international human rights law violations in Gaza,” Mr Francavilla said.

Sanctions so far issued by the EU have targeted violent extremist settlers in the occupied West Bank. These sanctions have always been carefully weighted with parallel sanctions against Hamas officials at the request of pro-Israel countries.

The EU's foreign affairs minister Kaja Kallas recently expressed frustration about this requirement which has stalled a third round of sanctions against extremist settlers. Hamas is also listed as a terrorist organisation.

Historic role

Germany views its strong support for Israel as a “reason of state” because of its historic role in the mass murder of European Jewry in the 1930s and 1940s. This support has remained steadfast since the start of Israel's military offensive against Gaza in October 2023.

Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar welcomed Mr Merz's election, calling him a “staunch friend of Israel”. In February, Israel reacted favourably to a speech given by Mr Merz, in which he said Israel would get whatever it needs “to exercise its right to self-defence”.

Mr Merz has also signalled his support for hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for war crimes. To date, Hungary is the only EU member to have hosted Mr Netanyahu in defiance of the warrant.

Dutch warning

However, as Germany remains steadfast, alarm over the war is growing among Israel's allies in Europe, as recent reports indicate that Israel plans to make use of private security contractors to sideline aid organisations in Gaza. French Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noel Barrot condemned the plan as “unacceptable” and a “violation of humanitarian law”.

Israel has killed some 52,615 Gazans in its military offensive, according to the Hamas-led Health Ministry, which came as a response to the October 7, 2023 attacks that killed roughly 1,200 Israelis. On March 2, Israel enforced a total blockade of aid, leaving the enclave's population vulnerable to mass starvation, according to the UN.

In a signal that the EU may be edging closer to reconsidering its relations with Israel after 19 months of war, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp on Tuesday sent a letter to Ms Kallas requesting a review of article two – which concerns human rights – of the EU-Israel association agreement.

In the letter, seen by The National, Mr Veldkamp said that “several colleagues expressed interest in this initiative and are currently considering their support for the request of a review.” He did not name which countries he was referring to.

Mr Veldkamp wrote that he was prompted to lodge this demand because of Israel's continued blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza, its decision to expand operations in the enclave, statements by Israeli cabinet members alluding to an occupation of parts of the Gaza Strip, Syria and Lebanon, as well as the further worsening situation in the West Bank.

Legal challenges

A number of legal challenges have been lodged at international courts to limit Israel's military capabilities – so far with little impact. Yet one case in particular appears to have put a dent Germany's weapons deliveries to Israel.

In April 2024, Nicaragua brought a case against Germany at the International Court of Justice accusing it of violating the genocide convention by continuing to arm Israel. The ICJ later rejected the case, saying legal conditions were not met to issue an order, but did not dismiss the case outright. Months before, the ICJ had found that genocide was “plausible” – a claim denied by Israel.

Official figures show German arms export approvals to Israel dropped to €161 million in 2024, down from €326.5 million in 2023, which itself represented a tenfold increase from the year prior. According to Der Spiegel, Berlin denied Israeli requests for artillery and ammunition but approved spare parts for Merkava tanks, reportedly after receiving assurances that they would be used in line with international law.

Domestically, public criticism has been muted and pro-Palestine protesters arrested. Diplomats and politicians expressing dissent have either been ignored or criticised. “With Merz incoming, and with what we've seen so far, the spirit in the foreign office will get progressive and there will be very little tolerance for dissent,” said Bente Scheller, head of the Middle East and North Africa Division at the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Foundation in Berlin.

In April, four former ambassadors to the Middle East criticised Germany's support for Israel in a Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung op-ed, calling it a “misguided form of friendship.” That same month, politicians from the Socialist, Green and Left parties called for an end to arms exports and urged recognition of a Palestinian state.

Their statement was met with harsh criticism. Describing the letter as a “disastrous alliance,” politician Florian Hahn said Germany respected international law by continuing to support Israel. Mr Hahn is a Christian Democrat like Mr Merz and is expected to become state minister for foreign affairs.