Doomsday Clock: Scientists move apocalypse gauge one step closer to midnight

Atomic scientists on Tuesday moved their “Doomsday Clock” closer to midnight than ever before, citing Russian nuclear threats amid its invasion of Ukraine, military applications of artificial intelligence and climate change as factors underlying the risks of global catastrophe.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set the clock to 89 seconds before midnight – the theoretical point of annihilation. That is one second closer than it was set last year.

The Chicago-based non-profit created the clock in 1947 during the Cold War tensions that followed the Second World War to warn the public about how close humankind was to destroying the world.

“The factors shaping this year's decision – nuclear risk, climate change, the potential misuse of advances in biological science and a variety of other emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence – were not new in 2024. But we have seen insufficient progress in addressing the key challenges, and in many cases, this is leading to increasingly negative and worrisome effects,” said Daniel Holz, chairman of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board.

“Setting the Doomsday Clock at 89 seconds to midnight is a warning to all world leaders.”

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine launched Europe's bloodiest conflict since the Second World War.

“The war in Ukraine continues to loom as a large source of nuclear risk. That conflict could escalate to include nuclear weapons at any moment due to a rash decision or through accident and miscalculation,” Mr Holz said.

The Middle East has been another source of instability with the Israel-Hamas war and broader regional hostilities involving countries including Iran.

Nuclear-armed China has increased military pressure near Taiwan while North Korea continues with tests of various ballistic missiles.

“We are watching closely and hope that the ceasefire in Gaza will hold. Tensions in the Middle East including with Iran are still dangerously unstable,” Mr Holz said.

Artificial intelligence made rapid gains in capability and popularity last year, prompting increasing concern among some experts about its military applications and its risks to global security.

“Advances in AI are beginning to show up on the battlefield in tentative but worrisome ways, and of particular concern is the future possibility of AI applications to nuclear weapons. In addition, AI is increasingly disrupting the world's information ecosystem. AI-fuelled disinformation and misinformation will only add to this dysfunction,” Mr Holz said.

Last year was the hottest in recorded history, according to scientists at the UN World Meteorological Organisation. The last 10 years were the 10 hottest on record, it said.

“While there has been impressive growth in wind and solar energy, the world is still falling short of what is necessary to prevent the worse aspects of climate change,” Mr Holz said.

The Bulletin was founded in 1945 by scientists including Albert Einstein and J Robert Oppenheimer.