Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
From Gaza to Ukraine, experts are trying to gauge the true human cost of war – hidden death tolls including those who perish from hunger or disease, as well as those killed by bombs and bullets.
A recent report in UK medical journal The Lancet suggested Gaza's true death toll could be four times the 39,000 recorded from violence.
Conflict monitors also assess those killed directly by violence but nonetheless unaccounted for.
Many dead may be missing in the chaos of fighting or buried under rubble. This figure can be a colossal addition to recorded deaths, which can include those verified as dying from a bomb blast – perhaps recorded by journalists or a local morgue.
Data scientists and economists sift through reams of government records on mortality, including all types of deaths, and within those numbers is the true toll.
These conflicts obviously have a visible impact: entire cities in ruins and millions displaced.
But keeping track of the true scale of deaths becomes harder, as health systems come under increasing pressure.
Civilians are of course the most vulnerable, although mortality data can also be used to determine male combatant casualties, figures often hidden by the propaganda of warring sides.
Excess deaths
Human masses, huddled in tents or in the open, without access to sanitation or health care, are often vulnerable to deaths that go unregistered.
About 1.7 million people in Gaza have been displaced, many of them more than once, with an estimated 6.5 million displaced inside Ukraine.
"Excess deaths" among these populations are those over what is known as the "baseline" death rate of a population – those expected to pass away under normal conditions, before a pandemic, war or other shock, such as a sharp economic recession or natural disaster.
In some cases, the gap between baseline deaths and the excess can illustrate how many people have died from war or other disasters: the experts track unusual surges in deaths.
In such emergencies, many succumb to illness in overcrowded hospitals that lack power, or staff to keep them running. Understanding this is important to assess the needs of civilians during a crisis.
Caitlin Moe, an epidemiologist at the University of California, told The National “the occurrence of indirect deaths is generally the core impetus for conflict mitigation and humanitarian responses”.
She said the increased targeting of health facilities in Gaza and Ukraine is “particularly salient” because most indirect deaths are “healthcare-related, in terms of disease morbidity and healthcare access”.
Lancet report on Gaza
The Lancet suggested the actual death toll from disease and displacement in Gaza could be 186,000, four times those killed by violence.
“Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence,” its report says. "Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable and non-communicable diseases.
"The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed healthcare infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water and shelter; the population's inability to flee to safe places."
In some cases, indirect deaths comprise the overwhelming majority of fatalities during a war.
Hunger, not bombs and bullets, will kill most in Sudan’s civil war, former Sudanese prime minister Abdalla Hamdok recently told The National.
Tally of tragedy
In Gaza today, the toll of 39,000 people killed in just over nine months has been carefully tracked by the enclave's hospitals and health clinics, even though they are being destroyed across the strip.
How many die beyond this figure – as well as The Lancet article, a study by Johns Hopkins University put the figure up to 80,000 – is subject to some controversy.
For a sense of how colossal indirect deaths can be, in the Democratic Republic of Congo the International Rescue Committee estimated only 10 per cent of 3.9 million deaths were directly due to violence in the civil war that gripped the country between 1998 and the early 2000s.
But there are uncertainties around many of these estimates, says Michael Spagat, a professor at Royal Holloway, University of London.
One obvious reason is the quality of critical services in different settings, that keep people alive as the war begins and drags on.
Mr Spagat makes clear that while “an immediate ceasefire and sustained humanitarian aid remain essential” in Gaza, The Lancet lacks sound methodology for claiming 186,000 Gazans have died.
Mr Spagat says the authors make their estimate based on a table in another, far-reaching study, The Burden of War, that references 13 conflicts and associated indirect deaths, with an average of four to every direct war death.
"These wars are just a tiny fraction of all the wars in recent decades," he said. "Kosovo is included, for which the table says, correctly, that the ratio of indirect to direct deaths was, essentially, 0. But the others range from 2.3 to 15.7.
"If we imagine that the numbers in the table are all correct and that these 13 wars and the Gaza war were all drawn from the same urn (so to speak) with equal probabilities of selection, then it would be reasonable to say that a projection of four indirect deaths for each direct one is conservative. But there are a number of problems.”
The wars chosen, he says, are not “representative of the likely mortality outcome in Gaza. Most simply don’t resemble Gaza.”
In Gaza, he says, the Ministry of Health has been effective for much of the conflict, at least until recently amid very heavy fighting around some hospitals, in reporting deaths daily.
“Why would they regularly announce numbers that are just 20 per cent of the real death toll?”
Gaza's health ministry says Israeli attacks are indiscriminate, while Israel says that Hamas hides its fighters in civilian infrastructure and homes.
Sifting through the data
Ariel Karlinsky, an economist from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and creator of the World Mortality Dataset, says quality record-keeping is critical when assessing a war’s indirect impact.
He says it is extremely difficult to assess excess deaths in areas with little data, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, or parts of occupied Ukraine.
"Ideally, excess mortality is a great measure for conflict-related deaths but conflicts tend to occur in areas with poor state capacity and sometimes regions with no or little vital registration data,” he said.
This has affected assessments of deaths in conflict in Darfur, Sudan during genocidal violence in 2004. One study said indirect deaths at the time were five times the number of violent deaths, while another said the indirect toll was 10 times higher.
Yet another study on Darfur claimed indirect deaths did not surpassed violent ones.
Other challenges include changing territorial control, Mr Karlinsky says.
“In settings with good enough state capacity (such as Ukraine or to a much lesser extent, Syria), conflict sometimes means loss of territory such that deaths that occur in areas no longer under control of the central government (Donbas in Ukraine, Aleppo in Syria) are completely unobserved. In fact, Ukraine stopped all demographic statistical reporting back in February 2022.”
If the American Civil War is a guide, the true toll of these wars will be debated for a long time.
For more than 100 years, war records from the Union and Confederate states put the four year-long war death toll at about 620,000, but data for the southern states was considered patchy, so even this was only an estimate.
In 2012, J David Hacker, a demographic historian at Binghamton University in the US, looked at census data on the conflict to find that 23 per cent of southern men between 20 and 24 may have died in the conflict. The final death toll of the war, he said, could be as high as 850,000.
How to become a Boglehead
Bogleheads follow simple investing philosophies to build their wealth and live better lives. Just follow these steps.
• Spend less than you earn and save the rest. You can do this by earning more, or being frugal. Better still, do both.
• Invest early, invest often. It takes time to grow your wealth on the stock market. The sooner you begin, the better.
• Choose the right level of risk. Don't gamble by investing in get-rich-quick schemes or high-risk plays. Don't play it too safe, either, by leaving long-term savings in cash.
• Diversify. Do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Spread your money between different companies, sectors, markets and asset classes such as bonds and property.
• Keep charges low. The biggest drag on investment performance is all the charges you pay to advisers and active fund managers.
• Keep it simple. Complexity is your enemy. You can build a balanced, diversified portfolio with just a handful of ETFs.
• Forget timing the market. Nobody knows where share prices will go next, so don't try to second-guess them.
• Stick with it. Do not sell up in a market crash. Use the opportunity to invest more at the lower price.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
US households add $601bn of debt in 2019
American households borrowed another $601 billion (Dh2.2bn) in 2019, the largest yearly gain since 2007, just before the global financial crisis, according to February data from the New York Federal Reserve Bank.
Fuelled by rising mortgage debt as homebuyers continued to take advantage of low interest rates, the increase last year brought total household debt to a record high, surpassing the previous peak reached in 2008 just before the market crash, according to the report.
Following the 22nd straight quarter of growth, American household debt swelled to $14.15 trillion by the end of 2019, the New York Fed said in its quarterly report.
In the final three months of the year, new home loans jumped to their highest volume since the fourth quarter of 2005, while credit cards and auto loans also added to the increase.
The bad debt load is taking its toll on some households, and the New York Fed warned that more and more credit card borrowers — particularly young people — were falling behind on their payments.
"Younger borrowers, who are disproportionately likely to have credit cards and student loans as their primary form of debt, struggle more than others with on-time repayment," New York Fed researchers said.
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Read more about the coronavirus
'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The%20specs%3A%20Taycan%20Turbo%20GT
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C108hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C340Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%20(front%20axle)%3B%20two-speed%20transmission%20(rear%20axle)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E488-560km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh928%2C400%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOrders%20open%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
The%20Boy%20and%20the%20Heron
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EHayao%20Miyazaki%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0Soma%20Santoki%2C%20Masaki%20Suda%2C%20Ko%20Shibasaki%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
BlacKkKlansman
Director: Spike Lee
Starring: John David Washington; Adam Driver
Five stars
How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Gender pay parity on track in the UAE
The UAE has a good record on gender pay parity, according to Mercer's Total Remuneration Study.
"In some of the lower levels of jobs women tend to be paid more than men, primarily because men are employed in blue collar jobs and women tend to be employed in white collar jobs which pay better," said Ted Raffoul, career products leader, Mena at Mercer. "I am yet to see a company in the UAE – particularly when you are looking at a blue chip multinationals or some of the bigger local companies – that actively discriminates when it comes to gender on pay."
Mr Raffoul said most gender issues are actually due to the cultural class, as the population is dominated by Asian and Arab cultures where men are generally expected to work and earn whereas women are meant to start a family.
"For that reason, we see a different gender gap. There are less women in senior roles because women tend to focus less on this but that’s not due to any companies having a policy penalising women for any reasons – it’s a cultural thing," he said.
As a result, Mr Raffoul said many companies in the UAE are coming up with benefit package programmes to help working mothers and the career development of women in general.
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
Company%20profile
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World%20Food%20Day%20
%3Cp%3ECelebrated%20on%20October%2016%2C%20to%20coincide%20with%20the%20founding%20date%20of%20the%20United%20Nations%20Food%20and%20Agriculture%20Organisation%2C%20World%20Food%20Day%20aims%20to%20tackle%20issues%20such%20as%20hunger%2C%20food%20security%2C%20food%20waste%20and%20the%20environmental%20impact%20of%20food%20production.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Audi RS5
Price, base: Dh359,200
Engine: 2.9L twin-turbo V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 450hp at 5,700rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 1,900rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.7L / 100km
DUNE%3A%20PART%20TWO
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Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
THE%20HOLDOVERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlexander%20Payne%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Paul%20Giamatti%2C%20Da'Vine%20Joy%20Randolph%2C%20Dominic%20Sessa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Liverpool 0
Stoke City 0
Man of the Match: Erik Pieters (Stoke)
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
